Le Super Mega Hyper Omni Post Version Sept!

This post is in honour of the new Grey Cup champions, les Montreal Alouettes. Les Montreal Carabins are favoured (heavily, I believe) to win the Vanier Cup this coming weekend. This is shaping up to be the biggest week in Montreal football history. If anyone talks about issues surrounding Canadian football, just tell them to take a look at the province of Quebec where football is thriving more than anywhere else in the country.

Now, to the American version of football. College football to be exact. And this post. I have done this now for the seventh time. It is a serious long post. Reader discretion is strongly advised. I wouldn’t read this in the bathroom unless you have a monster shit coming and are going to be spending a good amount of time in there. So get your favourite drink and let’s go. Who cares what time it is. Time is just a social construct so drink em if you got em!

We start with the conference championship scenarios. Some are stupidly easy to figure out. Some are…less so. Here we go.

It’s a rematch. Miami-Ohio gets their chance at revenge against Toledo at Ford Field.

Another one that is set. Two very different stories here. Undefeated Liberty has to win and get some help to get consideration for the New Year’s Six. New Mexico State, on the other hand, is looking at their best season ever and may be the fan favourite coming into this one.

The Troy Trojans are back in the Sun Belt Championship for the second straight season looking for a second straight conference title. As for the East, well…..

James Madison is not eligible. That much we know. It’s Coastal Carolina that controls its own destiny. If they win, they are in. That’s it. Their opponent? That’s right, James Madison. So it won’t be easy.

If the Chanticleers can’t get it done, it opens up a couple of possibilities:

• Appalachian State can now get in after beating James Madison this past Saturday. Win and hope for a Chants loss. That will punch their ticket to Troy.
• The other team that can get to the title game? Shockingly, it’s Old Dominion. The Monarchs need to take care of their own business first against Georgia State which also doubles as a bowl-eligibility game for them. Win that and they have to hope for CCU and App State to both lose and they get the spot.

If all three of those teams lose, it’s Coastal’s spot.

Georgia Southern would have been in Old Dominion’s spot if they had beat the Monarchs on Saturday. They are now just playing out the string and then finding out where they will be bowling.

If you had bet that UNLV would control their own destiny going into the final week of the regular season, you would have made a lot of money. No one thought they would be in this spot but here we are. Their path is easy. Beat San Jose State and they don’t just qualify for the Mountain West Championship, they will host it. I could see quite a big crowd at Allegiant Stadium for that one.

Their probable opponent? Well, it will be one of Air Force, Boise State or San Jose State. Fresno State was eliminated after last week’s upset loss to New Mexico. What are the scenarios? Buckle up because it involves composite computer rankings if there are no head-to-head results. Oh boy.

• San Jose State beats UNLV and Air Force beats Boise State. There would be a three-way tie between the Spartans, Rebels and Falcons. Chances are we are looking at a SJSU-UNLV rematch in the championship because all three teams are 1-1 against each other. The game would likely be in Las Vegas because the Rebels are way ahead of the other three teams in the rankings. Air Force is the lowest ranked of the four teams.
• San Jose State and Boise State win. In this case, it’s probably UNLV-Boise State in the title game. Those two teams did not play each other and Boise is slightly ahead of San Jose State in the rankings.
• UNLV and Boise State win. It will be Boise at UNLV. Done and done. The easiest scenario.
• If SJSU and the AFA win, chances are it will still be SJSU-UNLV but there’s no guarantee Vegas would host. Also, if the Falcons just absolutely obliterate the Broncos they could move up enough to surpass both the Spartans and Broncos. It is a long shot, though.

Ugh, that’s a lot with only two games in play next week but it makes for high drama for sure. We will know quite a bit by Friday evening as the Falcons and Broncos face off on Black Friday afternoon.

No team has clinched yet but all the teams left with a shot all control their destiny. Easiest to do this in chart form as UTSA faces Tulane in a loser-goes-home game and SMU plays Navy where the Middies have a chance to become bowl-eligible.

	UTSA/Tulane	SMU/Navy	Championship Game
Scenario 1	UTSA	Navy	Tulane at UTSA
Scenario 2	UTSA	SMU	UTSA at SMU
Scenario 3	Tulane	Navy	SMU at Tulane
Scenario 4	Tulane	SMU	SMU at Tulane

So really, the Roadrunners have to win to get in. The Green Wave doesn’t have to and neither do the Mustangs. So follow the chart and you can understand what’s going on!

This is pretty easy. For Washington, they are in. So one half of the championship is set. If Oregon wins, they will meet the Huskies in Las Vegas. If they lose the Civil War to Oregon State, then Arizona can get in. Beat rival Arizona State for the Territorial Cup and they would be in thanks to the tiebreaker that would kick in, winning percentage versus common opponents based on order of finish. That first team they would look at? Oregon State. The Wildcats beat OSU earlier this season.

Georgia. Bama. Atlanta.

Third straight easy scenario. Iowa is in. Somehow. And they will face the winner of The Game.

Louisville’s win this past weekend over Miami clinched their spot opposite Florida State in Charlotte. This game has got a lot more interesting now that Jordan Travis is out for the season.

I have saved the best for last (although the Mountain West scenarios are quite something). Four teams still have a shot to go to JerryWorld: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. No real surprises there. Because all teams don’t play each other, confusion has set in. Get used to it going forward with even bigger conferences. I still prefer it over divisions where a 6-6 division champ could cause chaos by beating an undefeated division champ. Anyway I have said enough about that over the years so let’s continue.

This is much easier to do it by team since to do it otherwise might take like fourteen paragraphs and confuse everyone, including me, even more.

Clinching Scenarios

Texas is in with a win over Texas Tech OR (a loss AND an Oklahoma State loss) OR (a loss AND an Oklahoma win AND an Oklahoma State win AND a Kansas State win).

Oklahoma State is in with (a win over BYU and a Texas win) OR (a win AND a Texas loss AND a Kansas State loss) OR (a loss AND a Texas win AND an Oklahoma loss) OR (a loss AND an Oklahoma loss AND a Kansas State loss).

Oklahoma is in with a win over TCU AND (an Oklahoma State loss) OR (a Texas loss AND a Kansas State loss).

Kansas State is in with a win over Iowa State AND (an Oklahoma State loss AND an Oklahoma loss) OR (a Texas loss).

So no team is in yet. Texas is in the best spot. I know most fans of the Remaining Eight are praying for an Oklahoma State-Kansas State championship but looking at these scenarios I don’t think that’s possible. I’m just not going to take the time to figure it out.

Let’s continue with this long-ass post with the Bossman Top 26:

#1	Georgia (11-0)
#2	Washington (11-0)
#3	Michigan (11-0)
#4	Oregon (10-1)
#5	Ohio State (10-1)
#6	Florida State (11-0)
#7	Texas (10-1)
#8	Alabama (10-1)
#9	Louisville (10-1)
#10	Missouri (9-2)
#11	Penn State (9-2)
#12	Ole Miss (9-2)
#13	LSU (8-3)
#14	Arizona (8-3)
#15	Oklahoma (9-2)
#16	Oregon State (8-3)
#17	Notre Dame (8-3)
#18	Tulane (10-1)
#19	Oklahoma State (8-3)
#20	Iowa (9-2)
#21	Kansas State (8-3)
#22	Utah (7-4)
#23	Liberty (11-0)
#24	NC State (8-3)
#25	Toledo (10-1)
#26	Kansas (7-4)

My top three control their own destiny for the College Football Playoff. Win next week, then win your conference championship. Done. Florida State should be in the same boat but we know how The Committee feels about big time injuries. This injury to Jordan Travis could end up feeling like the Dennis Dixon injury for Oregon back in 2007 if the Noles falter to Florida. I still think we are in for a bit of chaos for the final four-team playoff. We’re due right? There’s been like no chaos all season. Sure there are some weird results like UMass beating New Mexico State or Louisville falling to Pitt but really it’s been smooth sailing for the top teams. We need this. Give us something. Please!

OK now we get to the good stuff. Not that the stuff before this hasn’t been good. So…the better stuff? Sure, why not. Bowl projections. Let’s go.

Sugar Bowl	CFP #1 vs. CFP #4	Georgia vs. Texas
Rose Bowl	CFP #2 vs. CFP #3	Washington vs. Michigan

I have done a few changes here. Sure, nothing really happened this past weekend but the Jordan Travis injury…it’s got me thinking for sure. I think the Big XII could end up being the beneficiary if things don’t go the Seminoles’ way their next two games. I have Texas winning the Big XII Championship so they would sneak into the final spot. That won’t cause too much controversy, right? So what does this mean for the New Year’s Six?

Fiesta Bowl	CFP at-large vs. CFP at-large/G-5 #1	Oregon vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl	ACC Champ vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC	Louisville vs. Ohio State
Peach Bowl	CFP at-large vs. CFP at-large/G-5 #1	Florida State vs. Alabama
Cotton Bowl	CFP at-large vs. CFP at-large/G-5 #1	Missouri vs. Tulane

Some changes. Nothing super crazy but let’s figure this out.

• The easiest one is seeing FSU here. This means that they must lose the ACC Championship to Louisville. That would also mean the Cardinals get the Orange Bowl spot. That doesn’t change from my last set of bowl projections but it means they truly earned it this time around. I have them being the first team out, so to speak, so I am sure many in that area of the country will be mighty pissed off.
• Obviously my Memphis selection, for one week, was dumb. So now I have Tulane back in a familiar spot. But now I have them facing off against Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. The Tigers have almost guaranteed themselves a spot in the NY6 as long as they can take care of business on Black Friday against a woeful Arkansas team.

The rest is pretty much the same. We will know a lot more even after this Friday’s games so expect some of these selections to almost be set in stone or be drastically changed.

Finally, let’s get to the gong show portion of our show with the rest of the bowl projections. You’d think with all these tie-ins it would be much easier to project but some of these bowls don’t even follow them. I’m always an advocate for more at-large spots so I say they should go that route starting next season, especially since there’s a chance some of these bowls won’t exist with the new 12-team playoff.

Citrus Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	Ole Miss vs. Iowa
ReliaQuest Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	LSU vs. Wisconsin
Arizona Bowl	MWC vs. MAC	Boise State vs. Ohio
Music City Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	Auburn vs. Northwestern
Liberty Bowl	SEC vs. Big XII	Tennessee vs. Kansas
Sun Bowl	ACC vs. Pac-12	Boston College vs. USC
Gator Bowl	SEC vs. ACC	Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame
Alamo Bowl	Big XII vs. Pac-12	Kansas State vs. Arizona
Pop Tarts Bowl	ACC vs. Big XII	North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
Pinstripe Bowl	Big Ten vs. ACC	Illinois vs. NC State
Fenway Bowl	2 of ACC/AAC/C-USA	Georgia Tech vs. Memphis
Texas Bowl	SEC vs. Big XII	Kentucky vs. Oklahoma
Holiday Bowl	ACC vs. Pac-12	Clemson vs. Oregon State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl	SEC vs. ACC	UCF vs. Duke
Military Bowl	ACC vs. AAC	Syracuse vs. UTSA
Guaranteed Rate Bowl	2 of Big Ten/Big XII/MWC	Minnesota vs. Iowa State
First Responder Bowl	2 of ACC/Big XII/AAC/Sun Belt/C-USA	Texas Tech vs. Appalachian State
Quick Lane Bowl	Big Ten vs. MAC	Rutgers vs. Toledo
Hawaii Bowl	AAC vs. MWC	Rice vs. Fresno State
Las Vegas Bowl	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Maryland vs. Utah
68 Ventures Bowl	2 of Sun Belt/C-USA/MAC	Troy vs. Liberty
Idaho Potato Bowl	2 of MWC/MAC/Sun Belt	Air Force vs. Texas State
Armed Forces Bowl	Big XII vs. C-USA	TCU vs. Jacksonville State
Birmingham Bowl	2 of SEC/ACC/AAC/C-USA	BYU vs. James Madison
Camellia Bowl	2 of Sun Belt/C-USA/MAC	Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois
Gasparilla Bowl	2 of SEC/ACC/AAC/C-USA	Miami vs. Army
Boca Raton Bowl	2 of AAC/Sun Belt/C-USA/MAC	Coastal Carolina vs. Bowling Green
Frisco Bowl	2 of AAC/Sun Belt/C-USA/MAC	Marshall vs. San Jose State
Famous Toastery Bowl	MAC vs. C-USA	Miami-OH vs. WKU
Independence Bowl	Big XII vs. AAC	West Virginia vs. SMU
LA Bowl	Pac-12 vs. MWC	UCLA vs. UNLV
New Mexico Bowl	2 of Group of Five	Utah State vs. Louisiana
Cure Bowl	2 of AAC/Sun Belt/C-USA/MAC	Georgia State vs. Wyoming
New Orleans Bowl	Sun Belt vs. C-USA	South Alabama vs. New Mexico State
Myrtle Beach Bowl	2 of AAC/Sun Belt/C-USA/MAC	Georgia Southern vs. Mississippi State

A few notes for your perusal which you may or may not read after all you’ve had to read up to this point:

• James Madison and Jacksonville State are getting closer to being locks for bowl games. It would take the wildest of scenarios for there not to be bowl slots for both teams. Now watch it happen, which would suck for both teams.
• I decided to forget the asterisks. What’s the point. If they bowl committees won’t follow their tie-ins I will only follow them until I can’t. Which leads me to…
• I have a better idea about APR ratings now. That is why you will see a team like Mississippi State (who I don’t think will win the Egg Bowl) in a bowl slot in my bowl projections. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were multiple 5-7 teams in but for now, I have one. Army, at 6-6, will get in before Mississippi State even with their two FCS wins. They would be slotted after JMU and Jax State as far as I know.
• You will notice most of my projections have changed from the previous week. I saw a few rumours online that showed up with multiple Twitter/X accounts and figured there might be some realness to them. So I had to move a few teams around. And once you do that, you almost end up rewriting the whole damn thing. Oh well.
• Finally, you will notice something called the Famous Toastery Bowl has popped up. It is replacing the Bahamas Bowl and will be played in Charlotte. Supposedly it’s a good breakfast spot. Whatever.

I can’t add anything more to the bowl projections at this point. Eastern Michigan will have their chance to clinch bowl eligibility tomorrow night against Buffalo in the final night of MACtion this season and the final night of almost two months of football every day. What a ride it’s been. I hope you cherished it. I know I did. Not saying I saw every game but I tried my best to watch most weeknights and would keep watching until it felt like the games were well in hand (which almost bit me in the ass a couple of times and did finally bite me in the ass with Colorado allowing Stanford to come back in that wild one last month). Every Saturday night I was in for the long haul so no worries there. It’s the final regular season week of the season. Get in as much viewing as you can. I don’t try to push people to cancel other plans on other Saturdays. You can always catch highlights and sometimes these other plans are quite important. Like the tongue-in-cheek ban on Fall weddings is a little over the top. I wouldn’t even abide by that. But this is the final week of the regular season so I would try my best to keep the Saturday (and even the Black Friday) clear so I can soak in the college football goodness. Enjoy the rest of your week, everyone!

Bowl Games? Yep. New Year’s Six? Sure. College Football Playoff? Uh-huh. Coaching Hot Seat List? Why not? My Heisman Ballot? I mean, if you have to…

Hey remember last year when I dumped all that stuff I mentioned above into one post? Guess what I’m doing again.

Look, you could say that it would take the same amount of time to put all this in separate posts. And you’d be wrong. These tags don’t just create themselves. Although if there is a way to do tags automatically I would feel like a big fucking moron. Oh well, I’m just going to keep on living thinking I have to type in all the pertinent tags to this post. Ignorance is bliss!

Let’s start with some postseason predictions. You read the two posts where I predicted the standings for all the conferences (and those four mangy Independents). At least I hope you did. If not, you might want to so it can prepare you for this because, ho boy, this could cause some people to think twice about my mental capacity. We begin with the top of the mountain, the College Football Playoff. Here is what I think the semi-finals will look like along with the rankings of the teams involved:

January 1st	Sugar Bowl	#1 Georgia	#4 Florida State
January 1st	Rose Bowl	#2 Michigan	#3 Alabama

Am I close to the experts’ picks? I don’t really know. I think Georgia is the easiest call here but the road to get there isn’t easy. Their regular season loss to Tennessee means they had to beat Alabama in the SEC Championship to be in the Top 4. I believe they do. I also believe Bama, being #1 going into conference championship weekend, wouldn’t fall four spots on a single loss to one of the best teams in the nation. So they stay in at #3 which I am sure will cause a ton of people to become irrational and use Twitter as a ridiculous sounding board and causing people to not want to talk about college football. Sorry…use X as a ridiculous sounding board and cause people to not want to talk about college football on social media. X. What a dumb fucking name. Anyway, Michigan should get in with a in in the Big Ten Championship, even if it is over a Minnesota team that would be near the bottom of the Top 25 going in. Finally, remember what I said about the Tide? Triple that hatred for this one. Florida State, I predict, will beat Clemson for the ACC title. The Tigers would come in to the game at #2 and FSU would be #5. I have the Noles moving up a spot and the Tigers being that one-loss team that loses out in this bunch. The amount of venom spewed by college football media and fans about this, rightly or wrongly, would be way over the top. I think it would be the first time (and would be the only time) that a team goes into conference championship weekend undefeated, loses, and tumbles out of the College Football Playoff when the smoke clears. And because of that, I hope this, or something like this happens because we need a ton of chaos for the final four-team CFP ever.

Now we go to the next tier down: the New Year’s Six. The final New Year’s Six. I would shed a tear but it feels like it’s hardly been around long enough:

January 1st	Fiesta Bowl	#9 USC	#11 Ohio State
December 30th	Orange Bowl	#5 Clemson	#7 Tennessee
December 30th	Peach Bowl	#8 Penn State	#10 Notre Dame
December 29th	Cotton Bowl	#6 Texas	#14 UTSA

Do the games look interesting? Absolutely. Could there be some debate as to who is here, who isn’t and where everyone should go (and how they get there)? Absolutely. Am I backing down from these predictions? Absolutely not. I mean if this was the 12-team playoff, I am sure people would debate that as well but you can’t tell me none of these teams would be worthy of being there. That’s crazy. “Durr, Texas doesn’t deserve to be there. They won’t even be bowl-eligible.” Yeah go fuck yourself if you think that. That’s just plain dumb.

Alright, enough anger, more analysis. Let’s start with Clemson since that’s the easiest one to explain. They were #2 and undefeated, lost to Florida State in the ACC Championship, so they get the Orange Bowl spot reserved for the top ACC team remaining. Simple. The Pac-12, in their final unglorious season, will again beat each other up making it impossible for one team to come out unscathed. So the ninth-ranked Trojans will head to the Fiesta Bowl after winning the Pac-12 title. Ohio State slots in as their opponent although it could easily be Penn State. The reasoning here is that tOSU already plays Notre Dame during the season and it makes more sense for USC to play in Phoenix than Penn State for bowl season. Those Longhorns I mentioned? They go off into the sunset, leaving the Big XII as conference champions. It puts them in the Cotton Bowl against the best Group of Five team. I think Tulane almost runs the table during the regular season and gets a pretty healthy lead in the rankings over the next best teams, UTSA and Boise State. The Roadrunners’ win in the AAC Championship would trump anything the Broncos do and, should be enough to leapfrog the Green Wave to sneak into the final NY6 spot. Let’s be honest here: Texas-UTSA at AT&T Stadium for the Cotton Bowl is an instant sellout, no doubt about it.

Now for the rest of the bowl extravaganza:

January 1st	Citrus Bowl	#12 LSU	Minnesota
January 1st	ReliaQuest Bowl	#20 South Carolina	Michigan State
December 30th	Arizona Bowl	San Diego State	Toledo
December 30th	Music City Bowl	Ole Miss	#17 Iowa
December 29th	Liberty Bowl	Texas A&M	#16 TCU
December 29th	Sun Bowl	Duke	#24 Utah
December 29th	Gator Bowl	Kentucky	#21 North Carolina
December 28th	Alamo Bowl	#19 Kansas State	#18 Oregon
December 28th	Pop Tarts Bowl	Pittsburgh	Oklahoma
December 28th	Pinstripe Bowl	Maryland	Louisville
December 28th	Fenway Bowl	Syracuse	FAU
December 27th	Texas Bowl	Arkansas	Baylor
December 27th	Holiday Bowl	Miami	#13 Oregon State
December 27th	Duke’s Mayo Bowl	Wake Forest	Auburn
December 27th	Military Bowl	NC State	#15 Tulane
December 26th	Guaranteed Rate Bowl	San Jose State	Oklahoma State
December 26th	First Responder Bowl	UCF	East Carolina
December 26th	Quick Lane Bowl	Illinois	Ohio
December 23rd	Hawaii Bowl	SMU	Fresno State
December 23rd	Las Vegas Bowl	#23 Wisconsin	Washington State
December 23rd	68 Ventures Bowl	South Alabama	Middle Tennessee
December 23rd	Idaho Potato Bowl	Air Force	Miami-OH
December 23rd	Armed Forces Bowl	Kansas	UTEP
December 23rd	Birmingham Bowl	Mississippi State	North Texas
December 23rd	Camellia Bowl	Appalachian State	New Mexico State
December 22nd	Gasparilla Bowl	UCLA	James Madison
December 21st	Boca Raton Bowl	Coastal Carolina	UConn
December 19th	Frisco Bowl	Marshall	Navy
December 18th	Myrtle Beach Bowl	Southern Miss	Buffalo
December 16th	Independence Bowl	Texas Tech	Memphis
December 16th	LA Bowl	#22 Washington	#25 Boise State
December 16th	New Mexico Bowl	Wyoming	Louisiana
December 16th	Cure Bowl	Army	Georgia Southern
December 16th	New Orleans Bowl	Troy	WKU
December 16th	Bahamas Bowl	Eastern Michigan	Liberty

That is a lot of bowl games. I am not complaining. I am fully embracing the Sickos mentality of all football is good football. Even arena football if you can believe it! And why am I not complaining? Because I am desperate for the season to start. Talk to me in mid-December and I may have a slightly different answer. Some notes on these bowl games:

• The teams that juuuuuuust missed out on the New Year’s Six train to nowhere include LSU, Oregon State, Tulane and TCU.
• Quite a few teams would be playing close to home, including Mississippi State travelling to relatively close by Birmingham, Air Force with a not-so-long drive north into Idaho, South Alabama playing exactly 0 kilometres from their home stadium in the renamed 68 Ventures Bowl, Ohio venturing into hostile territory to play in the Quick Lane Bowl and Wake Forest making their way to hopefully get their coach dumped with mayo in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
• Hey remember what I said two posts ago about James Madison and a surprise for their fans? I know that was a lot of reading ago. Look, there won’t be enough teams to satisfy all the bowl slots. I have a feeling that will be a trend going forward. And because of that, the Dukes will have the opportunity to go to a bowl if they are invited before the team with the best APR score. And I’m sure at least one bowl would do that since JMU should be good once again this season. Man, do I ever hate the transition rule. I get the first year coming up that you shouldn’t qualify for anything. Get your feet wet. Sure. Longer than that is just the NCAA being insufferable dicks and not updating policies that are over 50 years old.
• As for those 5-7 teams making bowls they would be Georgia Southern, Buffalo, and Navy (which would kill my scenario for the Army-Navy Game).

I guess I should mention who I think will win the whole thing. Well, I’ve got Georgia beating Florida State and Michigan beating Bama in the semis and then the Wolverines ending the three-peat talk by beating the Dawgs in Houston for the title. Then Khaki Jim can ride off into the sunset…that sunset being back to the NFL.

Well look who is back in the FBS. Rich God Damn Rodriguez! He is at the helm of one of FBS’s newest teams, the Jacksonville State Gamecocks. I’m sure it won’t be an amazing season for the team but man, who thought he would be back at the top level of college football? Probably a few although I wondered if he was basically done being a head coach at this level. Shows what I know.

Hey, hey it’s HOT SEAT TIME! Last year my top two were jettisoned and Herm got an all-timer of an on-field shitcanning. I am still surprised some made it to this season (I am looking at you Mike Bloomgren) but all in all this list is a list I am actually proud of since I actually do well at it, as morbid as that sounds.

Alright let’s get to the list. Going with the new categorizations as well this time around. Let’s go!

Almost Guaranteed Shitcanning

1. Neal Brown (West Virginia) – He was #3 on my list last season and I honestly don’t know how he is still employed in Morgantown. And it’s not like things are looking super rosy there. Needed to keep his job – Honestly? A fucking miracle. Prediction – A mid-to-late-season shitcanning and no job next year as he starts quite a few rungs down the ladder in 2025.
2. Danny Gonzales (New Mexico) – Now let’s head to the southwest and a place that is very difficult to win at. Other than Rocky Long I don’t think anyone has really done anything of note in Albuquerque. The problem becomes how long do you give a coach a chance to win at a place where victories are at a premium? Honestly, Gonzales would be lower down the list if it wasn’t for what Jerry Kill did down the road in Las Cruces last year. Needed to keep his job – Vying for a bowl spot in the final two weeks of the regular season. Prediction – Near the bottom of the Mountain West pecking order yet again and maybe even a late-season firing.
3. Dana Holgorsen (Houston) – Look, Drunk Uncle Dana is entertaining. But the shtick gets old. And if they are as mediocre as I believe they will be in their first year in the Big XII, it’ll be lights out for Holgorsen. Needed to keep his job – Bowl eligibility, period. Prediction – I don’t think they will even have a shot at a bowl game in the final week of the season meaning Dana’s fate will be pretty much sealed by that point.
4. Eliah Drinkwitz (Missouri) – I don’t like harping on a guy’s looks but this guy looks more like Milton from Office Space than a college football head coach. Which is perfectly fine…if you win. This guy has hovered around .500 since coming to CoMo and I think a year under .500 would be the final straw. Needed to keep his job – At least a .500 record if not an upset or two inside the SEC. Prediction – I see him falling one game short of his goal and the athletic department feeling like they have to make a move now rather than wait.
5. Mike Neu (Ball State) – Neu has had his moments at Ball State but really hasn’t rose above an also-ran in the MAC. The Cardinals seem to consistently sit near the bottom of the MAC West which gives plenty of reason for a coach to get jettisoned. Needed to keep his job – Bowl eligibility. That’s it, that’s all. Prediction – I can’t see them winning more than four games this season so expect him to be the most likely MAC head coach to be fired first.

Probable Shitcanning

6. Ricky Rahne (Old Dominion) – Rahne really has not been able to recreate some of the magic that his predecessor, Bobby Wilder, had.  I’m not saying the Monarchs were great under Wilder: but they were fun to watch and competed hard. Haven’t seen as much of that under Double R.  Needed to keep his job – Be competitive and play some meaningful November football.  Prediction – Quite possibly the worst Group of Five team and a tough decision to be made by the athletic director.
7. Tom Allen (Indiana) – Where are the 2020 Indiana Hoosiers?  We can finally say that that version of the team was a complete aberration which sucks for their fans.  Allen really is on borrowed time but there is the slight possibility he is kept on when the brand-new Big Ten starts next season without divisions.  A SLIGHT possibility.  Needed to keep his job – 4 or even 5 wins and looking more competitive against some better Big Ten teams.  Prediction – 3 wins and a quiet exit (for Tom).
8. Mike Bloomgren (Rice) – The bloom comes off the rose yadda, yadda, yadda.  One of these years I am going to be right about this guy.  Not that I want to be: I am just genuinely befuddled as to why this guy is still the head coach at Rice.  Needed to keep his job – Not looking like a punching bag moving up to the American Conference.  Prediction – Four wins which isn’t bad but some bad losses inside the conference and finally his removal from the sidelines.

Possible Shitcanning

9. Billy Napier (Florida) – Napier suffers from the fact that even if the previous few coaches have ended up as disasters they had their successes as well.  He hasn’t done anything and the Gators were barely bowl-eligible with a supposed franchise quarterback under centre.  Now it’s a step back.  It comes down to how far of a step back he will be allowed.  Needed to keep his job – Bowl eligibility should do the trick.  Prediction – I have them missing out on the postseason so there should be plenty of angry fans in Gainesville.
10. Brent Pry (Virginia Tech) – Poor Brent.  Last season wasn’t too bad when he took over the Hokies.  This season on the other hand…I don’t see good things in Blacksburg.  Maybe I’ll be wrong (and lord knows I have been wrong in the past) but if it’s as tough a season as I think it will be for VaTech, Pry might be fine with being done as head coach.  Needed to keep his job – Some improvement over last year.  Prediction – I have the Hokies winning only one game this season. One. That is not improvement. At all.
11. Greg Schiano (Rutgers) – I don’t know where Rutgers goes from here.  They’ve had a tough slog since joining the Big Ten.  They are the butt of pretty much every realignment joke and meme.  And I’m not sure firing Schiano, their best coach ever, will fix anything. But at some point, changes have to be made to at least try and improve.  Needed to keep his job – At least 4 wins but more to be competitive inside the Big Ten.  Prediction – 4 wins but the competitiveness part…yeah I don’t know about that.
12. Terry Bowden (ULM) – Same spot for Terry as last year.  I honestly don’t know the end game for all of this.  I can’t see him coaching the Warhawks into being a top notch Sun Belt team. Is he grooming the next head coach? It’s very confusing. That’s why I put him here and not higher up the list.  Needed to keep his job – Have a better record than last year and put a scare into a few of the better Sun Belt teams.  Prediction – Last year I predicted one win for them. This year it’s two. Something has to give at some point.
13. Shawn Elliott (Georgia State) – Look, it’s not like Georgia State is a destination coaching spot.  Saying that, the Sun Belt has become a lot tougher over the past half-a-decade.  So if you’re not moving forward, you’re falling further behind. And this is what it feels like with Georgia State. They aren’t getting worst but they aren’t improving and quite a few teams are leaving them in their dust.  Needed to keep his job – Competitive football in November and possibility for bowl eligibility during the final week.  Prediction – I have them at 4 wins this season so this could be an interesting off-season decision in Atlanta.
14. Scot Loeffler (Bowling Green) – This is Scott (with one T)’s fifth season at Bowling Green.  I don’t know why that surprises me but it does.  The Falcons really haven’t done anything other than sneak into one bowl game in his tenure.  It is, however, Bowling Green so the expeectations are a lot lower here. At some point, though, thre has to be some semblance of results and this guy just isn’t delivering.  Needed to keep his job – Bowl eligibility and looking like a contender in the MAC East.  Prediction – No bowl game and they won’t look like a contender. Saying that, he may still be around for 2024 but on a very short leash.
15. Jeff Hafley (Boston College) – It has been a struggle on the Hill for Hafley and with no divisions there’s nowhere really to hide now in the ACC. The lack of success over the past decade-plus could be what keeps Hafley on for 2024. Needed to keep his job – 5 wins and having a shot at a bowl on the final weekend. Prediction – 5 wins and they will have two shots to claim bowl eligibilty and will fail at both but it will be enough for another year with Hafley.

Doubtful Shitcanning (although it still could happen)

16. Justin Wilcox (California) – Wilcox might not have to worry if Cal just shuts down the entire program.  I’m only half-joking with that sentence.  I think the athletic department has much bigger things to worry about right now.  Meaning if Wilcox is fired it might be done by text.  Needed to keep his job – Possible bowl contention.  Prediction – They aren’t going to a bowl game and it looks like, for now, they have to be thinking about filling a schedule for 2024 more than dealing with their below-average head coach.
17. Mel Tucker (Michigan State) – Tucks signed for a lot of money to coach in East Lansing so last year better be an aberration.  Let’s be honest: even with being in arguably the toughest division in college football, the Spartans will be much improved this season. Shouldn’t be much of a worry here unless they come out of the gate VERY slowly.  Needed to keep his job – Probably 7 wins.  Prediction – He will get them to 7 and maybe, just maybe, they will put a scare into one of the top three teams in the division.
18. Dana Dimel (UTEP) – Dimel must have been thanking his lucky stars once he saw the exodus from Conference USA.  Having a few newcomers join makes things a bit easier for the Miners this year and gives Dimel one more year, almost certainly, on the job.  Next season? Who knows.  Needed to keep his job –  Fighting for bowl eligibility during the final weekend.  Prediction – They should be bowl eligible in early November so the pressure will be off…for now.
19. Thomas Hammock (Northern Illinois) – It feels like every other year at NIU things look good.  And then every other year things look bad. And so forth. So it should be good this year in Dekalb, no?.  Needed to keep his job – Look like a contender in the MAC West.  Prediction – I have them at five wins so maybe they will shock me?
20. Don Brown (UMass) – Probably the toughest job for a head coach in FBS is being the head man at UMass.  I have said for years now that the Minutemen should just drop to the FCS. I still think they should but I do understand the financial ramifications. Still, at some point don’t you think the fans yearn for something more than a couple of wins a season at most?  Needed to keep his job – Win a game. Any game.  Prediction – I think they win one game and I’m not guaranteeing it will be against their one FCS opponent. Brown should be fine going into 2024.

I think I say this ever year but I have to go back one day and really determine how good I am at this coaching hot seat list. I feel I do well and I hope the numbers would back me up. But I am used to disappointment so I am not holding my breath.

There’s a reason I don’t get a Heisman ballot. I am sure if even if I was the most prominent college football journalist in the land they would say “Sorry, Bossman, no can do.” Probably because my ballots have been mostly garbage in the past. Let’s see if I can somehow do better this year. Let’s just get to my ballot before I regret even posting this.

Bossman’s Heisman Ballot of Mediocrity

1. Jordan Travis, Florida State – I know everyone and their mother is picking Caleb Williams to win the Heisman. I can’t see that happening because voters almost seem to want to avoid giving any player not named Archie Griffin back-to-back Heismans and most of the time it goes to a player on a team that’s in the Top 4 (or close to it). Travis is predicted to at least go to New York for the ceremony so it’s not like I am way off here. Plus, I think his passing stats will explode as FSU hits the CFP for the first time in what feels like forever.
2. Caleb Williams, USC – Because I don’t have the Trojans winning the title this season or getting to the College Football Playoff is one of the main reasons I think Williams doesn’t win his second Heisman. He should be close to his passing stats from last season and at least he will make the voters think twice all year as he will never be far from the top of the Heisman hopefuls list.
3. Drake Maye, North Carolina – Maye is only a sophomore this season so he may be prepping for his true Heisman run in 2024. He will turn a lot of heads this season, though, with UNC battling FSU and Clemson at the top of the ACC.
4. Bo Nix, Oregon – Bo’s move from the SEC to the Pac-12 was huge and reinvigorated his fledgling career. Much of the Ducks’ hopes this year to win the Pac-12 in their swan song season rests on his shoulders and it is going to be a dogfight at the top. One huge game from Bo in a big conference game could put Oregon in the national title picture.
5. Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State – As long as the Buckeyes can figure out who is going to be flinging the ball over the field at quarterback, Harrison should have a monster season. There is an outside chance that he will be the #1 pick in the NFL Draft so I am sure he will be going all-out all season. As long as Ryan Day doesn’t decide to run the ball a lot more this season, Harrison is tOSU’s ticket to New York.
6. Michael Penix Jr., Washington – I believe that, as is the case lately, that the Pac-12 teams will beat each other up and no one will be high enough in the rankings to be in the CFP. For some players it’s not a huge issue (see: Williams, Caleb last year). For some, it’s the main reason they either don’t win the Heisman or don’t get invited to New York at all. I see Penix being one of those guys. Washington will be very good but not quite good enough and stuck in a group of six teams that are all pretty damn good this year. Playing out west doesn’t help either, despite what some may say.
7. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan – Here is the guy under center (centre?) who will finally push Michigan over the top this year. He won’t throw for a shit-ton of yards but it will be enough (along with this ground game) to put him in the Heisman conversation for a bit at least. A win over tOSU alone may give him the New York invite (if it was up to Michigan fans).
8. Quinn Ewers, Texas – Texas is probably a huge dark horse pick to win it all this year and Ewers has to be considered a bit of a dark horse Heisman cadidate. The only thing that could make this not the case is if he has a bad quarter or two and Sark gets an itchy trigger finger and puts Arch Manning in for longer than a few series.
9. Cade Klubnik, Clemson – The Fighting Dabos are going to be back on top…at least through the regular season. I don’t think many will be surprised with this. I’m not fully sold on Klubnik but he is an improvement on D.J. Uiagalelei and the Tigers defense will be able to pick up the slack when he struggles a bit. But those struggles will cost him a seat at the Heisman table I’m sure.
10. Jayden Daniels, LSU – Hey, have you ever remembred a time where the quality of the quarterbacks in the SEC has been this low? Not saying Daniels isn’t good because he is. But there are a few teams, Alabama and Georgia most notably, that have potential QB issues this season in the SEC and a few other teams that have returning quarterbacks that are honestly just above-average at best. Daniels may get some Heisman talk just because he may end up being that much better than any other QB in the conference.

Honourable Mention

• Blake Corum, Michigan
• Sam Hartman, Notre Dame
• Joe Milton III, Tennessee
• Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
• Kyle McCord, Ohio State
• Drew Allar, Penn State
• Harold Perkins, LSU
• Brock Bowers, Georgia
• J.T. Tuimoloau, Ohio State

There you go. If one of those nineteen aforementioned players wins the Heisman, I will feel…well, good is not quite correct. Satisfied? Sure, let’s go with that.

The college football predictions…..they are complete! In a little less than half a year from now, I will find out how poorly I did. Gee, I can’t wait.

At some point soon I will do my lovely NFL predictions which are sure to also be not fully correct. Then…….Week…..Fucking…….ZERO!!!!!! I will have the schedule up at least a few days before the games commence. And yes, if you are looking for games on the specialty pack, don’t. Week Zero has almost never shown Week Zero games. Almost. Kind of a crapshoot with these idiotic Canadian cable companies. Enjoy your week everyone!

Oh man, here we go again

It felt like things were calm. We were all lulled into this. It was just the eye of the storm. Sure the wind wasn’t moving but about 200 metres away, a cow just went flying headlong into a barn.

What am I talking about? Realignment, of course! Another shoe has dropped…OK let me use a different analogy. Sorry Deion. We have another big move as Colorado will be going back to the Big XII starting next season. And that probably won’t be all. The rumours have at least one of Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Oregon or Washington following the Buffaloes. Or, if no other schools leave the Pac-12, the Big XII is more than willing to dip into the American Conference (hello SMU, Memphis, Tulane) or even way out east…yes, UConn! And maybe once the Pac-12 (or more like Pac-9) gets their act together, they can start bringing in teams from the Group of Five. The same teams from the American would be in play, especially SMU. Also, the Mountain West would be watching closely as San Diego State, Boise State and perhaps Colorado State and UNLV could be looked at. There will be a lot of meetings in the next month or so to determine where this all leads.

For now let’s focus on what this post was supposed to be (and still will be). It’s time for the Power Five conference predictions. This will give a better indication on how I think things will go during this season. So let’s dive right in!

Changes are coming soon for the Ess Ee Cee. Texas and Oklahoma join the conference next season. Also, no more SEC on CBS after this year. Everything moves to ABC and ESPN. And finally, no divisions. Halle-fucking-lujah.

As for this year, all the talk is about Georgia and doing something no team has done (fully) in the AP Poll era: win three national championships in a row. It’s not like they will fall apart, despite the fact they lost their starting quarterback and a bunch of other players in the NFL Draft. Then again, I’m sure Kirby Smart has looked them all dead in the eye and told them “Everyone thinks you are going to go 5-7 and lose to Vanderbilt. Prove them wrong!” And they will believe it because college football head coaches are just a notch-and-a-half below cult leaders in the pecking order of how much they can make their “followers” drink their Kool-Aid.

Remember, though, there are other teams in the conference as well. Like those lovable underdogs from Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and the team that just reeks of success (in the classroom and on the baseball diamond), Vanderbilt. And eleven other teams. Want to find out how I think they will do? OK. I will do that. Just for you.

		Conference		Overall
	East	W	L	W	L
	Georgia	7	1	11	1
	Tennessee	6	2	10	2
	South Carolina	5	3	8	4
	Kentucky	3	5	6	6
	Missouri	2	6	5	7
	Florida	2	6	5	7
	Vanderbilt	1	7	4	8
	West
	Alabama	8	0	12	0
	LSU	6	2	9	3
	Ole Miss	4	4	8	4
	Texas A&M	4	4	8	4
	Arkansas	3	5	7	5
	Auburn	3	5	7	5
	Mississippi State	2	6	6	6

Just For You

• You might think I am crazy for having UGA not run the table. I do think they will lose a regular season game and it will be to those upstart Tennessee Volunteers. It won’t keep them from winning the division though as you can see I have those same Vols losing two conference games during the regular season.
• As for the SEC West, though, Bama will once again rule the roost….as long as they figure out their quarterback situation. I am thinking they will and will go undefeated and be #1 in the nation going into conference championship weekend. If they don’t get their QB situation settled…well, maybe they lose two games? Three? It’s not like they will fall to 6-6.
• I could see South Carolina or last year’s SEC West champs, LSU, making a bit of a run this time around. They have the top two quarterbacks in the SEC and could each put up piles of points. Watch for the Cocks’ game against Georgia early on in the season and LSU’s post-Halloween trip to Bryant-Denny to face the Tide. Upsets in either of those games will seriously upset the apple cart.
• Look, the Gators were barely .500 with who I think may be one of the most overhyped quarterbacks in recent memory. I don’t think Anthony Richardson was that great. And now they don’t even have him. Unless every other part of the roster improved (it didn’t), how do people expect this team to bounce back and all of a sudden become an eight or nine win team? Spoiler alert: they won’t.
• I have Mississippi State at 6-6. They will do just enough to get a bowl game. I wonder how tough it will be after the loss of Mike Leach but I can see them straightening things out just in time late in the season.
• As for the SEC Championship, SURPRISE! I have the Dawgs beating the Tide and creating a massive clusterfuck in the final College Football Playoff rankings. Fun times!
• Eleven bowl teams from the SEC with two juuuuuust on the outside. That’s insane and I don’t think I will be that far off with this prediction. Next year could be even crazier with Texas and Oklahoma joining the conference that just means more.

Man have things really changed in terms of where you will see Big Ten games this season. Gone are ABC and ESPN. In is NBC and CBS. This is gonna feel weird the first time I see it. And maybe the next few times as well. I will get used to it at some point. Now if you want the opportunity to watch every Big Ten game, better find a way to get FOX Sports One and Peacock otherwise you will be shit out of luck to watch potential bangers like Northwestern-Purdue and Indiana-Rutgers (if they end up there and not the Big Ten Network).

Alright, let’s get into the final conference predictions before the B1G gives a big Fuck You to geography and brings in USC and UCLA.

		Conference		Overall
	East	W	L	W	L
	Michigan	8	1	11	1
	Penn State	8	1	11	1
	Ohio State	8	1	10	2
	Michigan State	5	4	7	5
	Maryland	5	4	8	4
	Indiana	1	8	3	9
	Rutgers	1	8	4	8
	West
	Minnesota	6	3	8	4
	Wisconsin	6	3	9	3
	Iowa	6	3	9	3
	Illinois	5	4	7	5
	Nebraska	2	7	5	7
	Purdue	2	7	5	7
	Northwestern	0	9	2	10

Geogpraphy, Go Eat a Dick

• Look, I know some might look at the Big Ten East standings and think I am a bit crazy. I am not. Although that is what a crazy person would tell you. Yep, a three-way tie at the top at 8-1 between Big Blue, tOSU and PSU. Because each team will be 1-1 against the other two, the CFP Rankings will decide the winner. I believe the Wolverines will somehow win that. And yes, I think Ohio State also loses to Notre Dame. O-H! I-No.
• If Sparty doesn’t make it to a bowl game, they may end up giving Mel Tucker the Herm Edwards treatment and fire him before he can leave the playing surface one game. I get they have a tough division but they should be able to do well enough against the rest of their schedule to get back in the postseason after last year’s debacle.
• No, I don’t have Wisconsin winning the West division. Meaning I am different than almost every expert out there. Also, there’s the fact I’m not an expert but I digress. Again I have a damn three-way tie but no need to look at the rankings for this one as I believe the Gophers will Row the Fucking Boat all the way to Indianapolis after beating both Wisky and the high-octane Iowa Hawkeyes. See what I did there? Yeah, I don’t care that the Hawkeyes have a new quarterback in town. Until Kirk tells his son to do better, Iowa will be pushing for some 7-6 victories. Sorry. 8-6. Two field goals and a late safety to win.
• Nebraska will be better but I think the Huskers are a season away from getting back to the top of the West…just in time for the West to just not exist anymore.
• As for Northwestern…man. What a shitshow. Look, I played a lot of sports earlier in my life and did so at the university level. Are there fun little pranks and stupid things the rookies have to do? Sometimes. But it’s usually harmless. Carrying bags, standing up during a team dinner to get embarrassed by singing some Mariah Carey song, dumb things like that. Not getting fucking dry humped in some cultish fashion by weirdos in robes. What the fuck is wrong with that school? And yes, it’s not just the football program. Sounds like at least half the teams there have serious issues. Ugh.
• Now let’s get crazy. Yeah! The Big Ten Championship will…OK who am I kidding. It won’t be close. I have Michigan plowing through Minny to clinch their spot, yet again, in the College Football Playoff.

Might as well call this the Stable Conference…for now. Just nothing happening here which is just fine for most of the teams in the ACC. Status quo isn’t a bad thing. There are some changes with where you will see games. The CW…yes, the C-Fucking-W, will have an ACC game during most of the weeks of the season. You can take the ACC out of Jefferson-Pilot (or Raycom) but you can’t take the Jefferson-Pilot (or Raycom) out of the ACC. Or something like that.

So before this conference possibly gets pillaged by the Big Ten and SEC, let’s get to the predictions followed by some deep tissue massage and/or analysis.

		Conference		Overall
		W	L	W	L
	Clemson	8	0	12	10
	Florida State	7	1	11	1
	North Carolina	6	2	9	3
	Pittsburgh	5	3	8	4
	Louisville	5	3	8	4
	Duke	4	4	8	4
	Wake Forest	4	4	7	5
	NC State	4	4	7	5
	Miami	4	4	7	5
	Syracuse	3	5	6	6
	Boston College	2	6	5	7
	Virginia	2	6	4	8
	Georgia Tech	2	6	4	8
	Virginia Tech	0	8	1	11

Deep Tissue Massage and/or Analysis

• I should book a massage. My back is in horrible shape.
• Some may scoff at me having Clemson going undefeated this season. They have the schedule to do it and if Cade Klubnik is as good as he can be this could relatively easily happen. If Klubnik struggles…well then this entire set of standings might need to be scrubbed from existence.
• Reader Gord will like where I have Florida State. This team could be scary good. And at the very least, they will be near the top of the ACC standings this season. Mike Norvell has done a great job getting this team back to what it was like during the Jimbo Fisher days. I had my doubts about him but I have to admit he has been the right guy to right the ship in Tallahassee.
• Hey did you notice? NO DIVISIONS! I love it.
• Don’t be surprised that if Clemson or FSU stumbles that there are no shortage of teams that could get one of the two ACC title game slots. A list of seven teams could pull off a couple of upsets and be at the top and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise. A slight surprise sure. Maybe a slightly bigger surprise if it was Miami or NC State. But not a massive surprise.
• Poor Virginia Tech. I think this will be their worst team since before Frank Beamer graced Blacksburg. It feels like it has been forever since the Hokies were contenders. It was only seven years ago when they were in the ACC Championship and almost upset the eventual national champions, Clemson. This team is pretty bad in almost every aspect of the game and the schedule will not be helpful to them. Other than Old Dominion I don’t see them winning any other game and the Monarchs have given VT all sorts of fits the past few years.
• Look for a tiny bit of a bounce back from Virginia. Just them taking the field after what happened last year is a win in my books.
• For that ACC title game, how about another game that will turn everything on its head. Yep, I think the Noles will get revenge for a regular season loss by inching out the Tigers. Chaos!

OK it’s about time the Big XII rebrands. They will have at least thirteen teams by the time the 2024 season starts and it may be as high as sixteen. So change the fucking name. They have the rights to the Big Fourteen and Big Sixteen so use one of those. It would be easy. Find a graphic design student at Kansas and have them do a new logo. Easy peasy. Why do I have to come up with everything?

Where was I? Oh that’s right, predictions. Let’s see if this conference will go all Pac-12 and cannibalize itself or if they can see a team get to the CFP once again. Also, Texas and Oklahoma will be trying their best to leave the conference on a high note much to the chagrin of the rest of the schools in the conference. So here are the Big XII standings predictions, followed by Belly Expansions.

		Conference		Overall
		W	L	W	L
	Texas	8	1	10	2
	Kansas State	7	2	10	2
	Baylor	6	3	8	4
	TCU	6	3	9	3
	Oklahoma	6	3	9	3
	Texas Tech	5	4	8	4
	Oklahoma State	5	4	8	4
	Kansas	4	5	7	5
	UCF	4	5	7	5
	BYU	3	6	5	7
	Cincinnati	3	6	5	7
	Houston	2	7	4	8
	Iowa State	2	7	4	8
	West Virginia	2	7	3	9

Belly Expansions

• No I don’t mean pregnancy. I mean eating a big meal and having to loosen the ol’ belt or just unbuckle the pants altogether. Funny enough, people in the restaurant don’t appreciate that.
• Let’s start at the bottom. There won’t be one truly bad team. There will be a bunch of below-average ones. West Virginia, Iowa State, Houston, Cincinnati and BYU could all finish last and I am sure no one would bat an eye.
• I see the Longhorns making their final Big XII season a special one. They have the team, the schedule and the head coach (I think) to be the top team in this conference this season. The only question will be can Quinn Ewers hold off Arch Manning. Will one of them transfer in the offseason? Remember, when you have two starting quarterbacks, you have none. I think.
• How about this lukewarm take: Kansas State will be good again. Yeah really going out on a limb there Bossman. This team has become so steady-as-she-goes it’s almost boring. The people in the Little Apple are fine with this.
• I do think one of the newcomers will make a bowl game and that team will be UCF. I think they are the most prepared of the newbies coming into this conference. But make no mistake about it: all four teams will be good at various points over the next few years.
• I can’t see Oklahoma taking enough of a leap to get to the Big XII Championship. Nor do I think the Horned Frogs of TCU have the, uh, toads? to make it back to the conference title game. Good seasons for both, yes, but not great.
• The Longhorns should win the conference title game in their final season in the Big XII. Will this get them into the CFP or will it “relegate” them to the New Year’s Six? I think you can tell from my predictions so far but you will know for sure in a different post.

So where are we going to be able to watch Pac-12 games in the future? Who the hell knows. My money is on PBS.

But seriously, the Pac-12 is quickly dropping from the Conference of Champions to almost a Group of Five conference. They are losing USC and UCLA next year to the Big Ten. They knew that already. The bombshell of Colorado leaving now has them at nine teams starting the 2024 season. And it may not end there. The only schools I haven’t heard potentially leaving are Oregon State and Washington State. That’s not to say all these rumours will be correct but I will be pretty surprised if no more teams leave for the Big XII before next season. It’s sad for a conference that really started their slide once Pete Carroll left USC for the NFL. Thanks a bunch, Peter.

Prediction time! No divisions which is one thing they are ahead of the game with, starting that last year. Let’s get to those divisionless predictions followed by some California Nightmarin’.

		Conference		Overall
		W	L	W	L
	USC	8	1	10	2
	Utah	7	2	9	3
	Oregon	7	2	9	3
	Oregon State	7	2	10	2
	Washington State	6	3	8	4
	Washington	6	3	9	3
	UCLA	5	4	8	4
	Colorado	3	6	4	8
	California	2	7	4	8
	Arizona	2	7	4	8
	Arizona State	1	8	3	9
	Stanford	0	9	2	10

California Nightmarin’

• No state will have it better this year in the Pac-12 than the state of Oregon. Both the Ducks and the Beavers look to be serious contenders and only need the ball to bounce their way one extra time to maybe get to the Pac-12 Championship. And considering the way that title game has gone, who knows what may happen after that.
• The strongest team, though, should be USC. They have Caleb Williams coming back to try and do what no one other than some guy named Archie has ever done, and that’s win two Heisman Trophies. The hope there is that the sting of the two season-ending losses will motivate them to push themselves that final step into the CFP.
• OK look, I know you see Washington in sixth place and you are wondering what the fuck is wrong with me. This is another case where the schedule is just flat-out against them. A slightly easier schedule and I might put this team at eleven or even, dare I say it, twelve wins. It will be that close at the top of the conference.
• On the other hand, I am sure no will think I’m crazy for putting Stanford in last place. It’s been a long time since the Cardinal have been this bad and it doesn’t look like they will be ready for bowl action for another year at least.
• I think I was fair putting Colorado at 4-8 for this season and playing fairly meaningful football going into November. There seems to be two schools of thought with this team. One section thinks Coach Prime has done wonders and with all the fresh faces in the lineup it will push the team over the line and into bowl-eligibility territory. The other section thinks the entire program is overhyped and they will win maybe two games. I am in the middle on this. This team won’t go bowling this year. That would be too much of a leap. But they should win more games than they did last year. If not, what the hell was all this hoopla for?
• As for the Pac-12 title game, USC gets the Pac-12 Championship they probably should have won last year. Problem is that by this point there will be a lot of teams in the mix for those four College Football Playoff spots and in typical Pac-12 fashion, the league will have cannabilized itself again and missed out on the CFP again.

There you go! You now have a complete set of Bossman conference predictions. Next up, is kind of the wrap-up post where I put everything in a nice, neat little ball and let you know who I believe will win the whole damn deal. Have a great week everyone!

A new kind of post and some realignment discussion

To start with, yes, I am not doing a recap post.  You will not see recaps like you did before.  What I am thinking of doing though is putting my Top 25 on Monday morning along with, starting now, a few bowl projections (with the goal to get to full bowl projections in a few weeks).  I might add something else to this post when I see fit, like I am with this one.

Take a look at the map above.  Yeah, Conference USA is in a serious bit of trouble.  Let’s recap what has happened over the past couple weeks.

• It was always known that the AAC would try to do something after losing three of their members to the Big XII (Cincinnati, Houston & UCF).  Interestingly enough, they looked to Conference USA.  SIX TEAMS!  Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA are moving to the American Conference, probably for the start of the 2023 football season.  Interesting choices but choosing Charlotte, Rice and UTSA gives them three more big metropolitan areas to become popular in and allow conferences to gain a good foothold in recruiting.  This dropped Conference USA to 8 teams.  Tough, but they can deal with it in the immediate future and look at what they could do for expansion in a year or two.
• Oops.  Make that they have to look at figuring things out immediately.  Reason for that is that the Sun Belt, which has gained ground on all the Group of Five conferences in the past few years, has invited four teams to join, three from Conference USA.  Those three teams are Marshall, Southern Miss and Old Dominion.  The Golden Eagles have already accepted their invitation and it is expected the Herd and Monarchs will accept theirs in the next day or two.  The other invitee is James Madison.  It was just a matter of time for when the Dukes moved up to the FBS.
• OK so now Conference USA is down to five members.  FIU, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, UTEP and Western Kentucky were not invited to either the AAC or Sun Belt…yet.  Remember, the Big XII has hinted that they might invite two more schools and Memphis and Boise State seem to be at the top of that list.  If they do do that, it makes for another domino effect that will translate to more changes at the G-5 level.  Also, Liberty has made it known that they are not interested in joining Conference USA.  So that is not an option.

So now what?  There are rumours that Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky could get invites to the MAC, which would essentially doom Conference USA.  Some keep saying UTEP could go to the Mountain West but I don’t see that happening.  LaTech is probably destined for the Independent route since they have somewhat burned a bridge with the Sun Belt, and ULM in particular.  Conference USA is already looking at FCS schools like Sam Houston State and, get this, Tarleton State to restock the conference.  Tarleton State?  They’ve been D-1 for two seasons in football.  At least we know how desperate the conference is.

Oh and remember this post?  I said Conference USA and the Sun Belt should do a shuffle to better organize their conferences to be more regional and less spread out.  I got a lot of messages from fans of Conference USA schools pissed off at me because I seemed to hate their conference.  I don’t hate it.  I’m realistic about it.  They have the worst TV package for football, by far, of any FBS conference.  They’ve never had one of their schools in the New Year’s Six.  The level of competition isn’t exactly making people not want to watch the American or Mountain West (let alone MACtion and the Fun Belt).  It’s the bottom of the ten conferences.  They needed to do something to change it and didn’t and now they are in deep shit.  Blame the conference commissioner and the powers that be for not being proactive.  Now you can watch your conference die for all I care.

It felt very weird this past Saturday with no late game.  And no I didn’t stay up for the Hawaii Test since that game didn’t even start until every other game had ended (other than the East Carolina-Houston game that was delayed five-and-a-half hours).  So for once I got, well, let’s say more sleep than I usually do on a Saturday night.  Alright, let’s get to the Bossman Top 25:

#1	Georgia
#2	Cincinnati
#3	Oklahoma
#4	Alabama
#5	Ohio State
#6	Michigan
#7	Oregon
#8	Ole Miss
#9	Notre Dame
#10	Michigan State
#11	Texas A&M
#12	Iowa
#13	Wake Forest
#14	Kentucky
#15	Auburn
#16	Baylor
#17	Penn State
#18	Oklahoma State
#19	San Diego State
#20	Pittsburgh
#21	SMU
#22	Iowa State
#23	UTSA
#24	BYU
#25	Arkansas

Honestly, after Georgia, it’s a bit of a crapshoot really.  I don’t care what anyone thinks, this wasn’t easy and anything remotely close to this (or the AP Poll) is probably OK as well.  The only truism is that if Georgia wins out, they go to the College Football Playoff.  For most of the other teams, that isn’t the case.  It definitely isn’t the case with Cincinnati.  Yes they are #2 at this point but will drop to #3, maybe in the next week depending on what happens with the teams below them.  It’s nothing on them but, other than SMU, the rest of their regular season schedule is not exactly great.  They need to beat SMU handily and then beat a (hopefully good) Houston team in the AAC Championship to keep their Top 4 spot.  And even then they made need help.  Oh yeah and I promised so I delivered: UTSA is in the Top 25 at #23.  To shock the world and get that New Year’s Six spot they are going to need Cincinnati, SMU and San Diego State to all lose at least once.  Cincinnati and SMU, as I stated above, play each other in November so there’s one loss there but the other two may be hard to come by.

Now let’s get to the first set of bowl projections of the season:

Orange Bowl	CFP Poll #1 vs. CFP Poll #4	Georgia vs. Cincinnati
Cotton Bowl	CFP Poll #2 vs. CFP Poll #3	Oklahoma vs. Ohio State

Alright, quick explanations for these choices at this point:

• OK so Cincinnati runs the table and destroys Houston in the AAC Championship.  Notre Dame also wins out, meaning Cincinnati would have two great opponents on their resume, the Irish and Cougars.  SMU, other than their loss to the Bearcats, also wins the rest of their games.  This bolsters their resume enough.  Oh, and Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship which pushes Cincy to #4.
• Oklahoma rounds into form and beats Oklahoma State in Bedlam (along with the rest of their regular season games).  They get Iowa State in the Big XII Championship (who has also won out from here) and beat them handily to nab the #2 spot.
• Georgia runs the table and then beat Alabama (finally) in the SEC Championship.  Easy route to #1.
• Ohio State has a bit of trouble with, yes, Michigan but wins out and then beats Iowa pretty easily in the Big Ten Championship (although a few teams could come out of the West).  The Buckeyes should be ranked higher than Cincinnati and would slot in at #3.

So there you go.  First set of bowl projections and I’m sure some of you disagree already, which is fine.  There’s still a lot of football yet to play.  Anyway, football every day will commence November 2nd and go through to November 29th (except for the day before American Thanksgiving).  That’s something to look forward to, no?  Enjoy your week everyone!

Hello! Hello? HELLO! Don’t forget about us! Don’t forget about Conference USA. Please.

Good lord look at that map.  Look I get it.  Most conferences have ridiculous footprints now.  Can’t count the Mountain West in there because it’s not fair.  Hawaii?  Nah.  And yes the American Conference’s footprint is ridiculous.  But for a conference this low on the totem pole?  It’s insane.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: Conference USA and the Sun Belt need to do some swaps to become more regionalized.  C-USA can take the Eastern teams and the Sun Belt can take the Western teams.  Or North and South.  I really do not give a shit.  But sorry, no one is getting hyped for a Rice-Old Dominion game.  And distance (and lack of history) does that.  Be smart.  Especially, with…ugh…realignment (almost getting sick of that word now) possibly going off the rails for the next year or three.  It’s more so for this conference’s benefit than the Sun Belt because hey, who doesn’t love the Sun Belt?

Maybe, just maybe, this could help with TV contracts as well.  Their deals suck.  The best they have is the 14 games that air on CBS Sports Network.  No other conference has it this bad.  I get it: it sounds like I pick on them all the time.  Go ahead and say that.  I don’t care.  But either they have to be smart about their future or pray that one of their teams gets into the New Year’s Six before the expanded playoff begins.  Anyway, let’s get into my predictions for the standings this year so I can cool off followed by some Geography Lessons:

		Conference		Overall
	East	W	L	W	L
	Florida Atlantic	7	1	9	3
	Marshall	7	1	9	3
	FIU	3	5	5	7
	Middle Tennessee	3	5	4	8
	Charlotte	2	6	3	9
	Western Kentucky	2	6	3	9
	Old Dominion	1	7	2	10
	West
	UTSA	8	0	10	2
	UAB	6	2	9	3
	Louisiana Tech	5	3	6	6
	Southern Miss	4	4	6	6
	Rice	2	6	4	8
	UTEP	2	6	4	8
	North Texas	2	6	3	9

Geography Lessons

• I will say it again: this is how I would break up the schools between C-USA and the Fun Belt (if that’s what they wanted to do at this point):
  • C-USA: Troy, South Alabama, Arkansas State, Southern Miss, ULM, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana, Rice, North Texas, UTSA, UTEP, Texas State
  • Fun Belt: Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Charlotte, Marshall, Georgia State, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Georgia Southern, Florida Atlantic, FIU, UAB
  • If both new conferences are smart they also bring up another team or two from FCS.  James Madison and Sam Houston State are the ones I would target right off the hop.
  • This way, it’s regional, rivalries can really blossom (like the Louisiana schools being all together), and you keep travel costs down while you hopefully move into a more lucrative TV contract down the road.  Win-win-win-win in my opinion.  But hey, I’m just a guy.
• Back to this conference only, the East should again come down to FAU and the Herd.  With the Owls winning the head-to-head matchup, they should get to the conference championship meaning Willie Taggart will eventually move up the chain again at a more prominent role at a bigger school.
• In the West, things will be a lot less ridiculous than it has been the previous few years.  It’s UTSA’s time.  The Roadrunners have been slowly building to this spot and it shouldn’t be a surprise since out of all the newer FBS squads, this is one of the ones that was destined to do well and create a winning football culture (alongside teams like Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, UAB and FAU).  This division shouldn’t be close.
• Old Dominion is going to have a ROUGH return to football.  Playing for the first time since 2019, it will be a long season for the Monarchs.  Charlotte, WKU and the Mean Green don’t have that excuse.  No, they won’t be as bad as ODU.  But they won’t be good and bowl games are not in their immediate future.
• As for the conference championship game, it’s probably going to be a good, close game.  I have UTSA winning their first conference title and going to….well, nowhere since the conference champ isn’t guaranteed to go to a specific bowl game.  Ridiculous.
• Only six bowl-eligible teams for the conference.  And now with these new G-5 bowl tie-ins (instead of a single conference, three bowl games just have general Group of Five tie-ins meaning any G-5 conference can send a team there), there’s less worry about filling all the bowl tie-ins.  Smart idea.

I’m starting to get a bit excited.  It’s August!  It is seriously just around the corner now!  Next up, I put it all together and let you know who I predict to go to each bowl game.  Should be fun and not have any controversy whatsoever.  Under four weeks now.  27 days.  You can feel it.

The CFL begins in four short days with the Ti-Cats and Blue Bombers opening the new, shortened season.  That same night, the NFL has their Hall of Fame game between the Cowboys and Steelers.  Football season is almost back!  Have a great rest of your Civic Holiday long weekend if you get a long weekend…I don’t.

Another one bites the dust (the Conference USA preview)

I couldn’t even get my Coaching Hot Seat post out before a coach was shitcanned!  Jay Hopson is out as the head coach at Southern Miss.  OK he resigned but I have a feeling he would have been fired shortly if he hadn’t quit.  Now this may come as a surprise to some and initially I tilted my head to the side in wonderment of this move.  Saying that, the Golden Eagles have been stuck being pretty good in the conference but nothing better.  They aren’t back in the Larry Fedora days.  And now that there are reports that players basically quit on Hopson late last year and in this year’s opening week upset loss to South Alabama, it makes a lot more sense.  Also, he didn’t exactly get along with the president of the university after trying to hire Art Briles last year.  So this was just a situation waiting to happen and they just need the proverbial straw to break the camel’s back.  The loss to South Alabama provided that.

OK so I am not going into get into my feelings on Conference USA.  They are fairly well known.  And I don’t think they are wrong.  The good thing (one of very few good things) about COVID-19 is that Conference USA will get more national attention.  They don’t have the NFL Network deal anymore which kind of disappeared out of nowhere.  But they should have more games on CBS Sports Network to replace the MAC and also should appear on ESPN networks to replace other conferences who would usually show up there.  This is all good stuff.  So let’s get to my predicted standings and then we will get to Conference USA Comments:

		Conference		Overall
	East	W	L	W	L
	Marshall	6	1	6	3
	Florida Atlantic	5	2	7	2
	Western Kentucky	5	2	7	4
	Charlotte	4	3	5	6
	FIU	2	5	3	6
	Middle Tennessee	1	6	2	8
	West
	UAB	7	0	9	2
	Louisiana Tech	6	2	8	3
	Southern Miss	6	2	8	4
	Rice	3	5	3	5
	UTSA	2	5	3	9
	North Texas	2	6	3	8
	UTEP	0	8	2	10

Conference USA Comments

• God where do I begin with this.  So many issues.  The first you will notice is that there are only six teams in the East.  That’s because Old Dominion decided to opt out of playing in the Fall.  I respect their decision as everyone else should too.  But if the conference can finish their season, it paints the Monarchs in a bad light, rightly or wrongly.  That could affect recruiting going forward, especially for a newer FBS program.
• The other big thing you will notice is the unbalanced schedules.  With Old Dominion out, there was almost no way to change the conference schedule to make it so all teams played the same amount of conference games without completely starting over.  Also, each team has a different amount of non-conference affairs.  Rice has none now thanks to their game against Houston being postponed at the very least.  Meanwhile there are some teams that have full four-game non-conference schedules.  So it will be definitely a bit of a dog’s breakfast here with the standings.
• In the West, things have spread out a bit.  UAB is quickly becoming the class of the division, a step above Louisiana Tech.  And yes, even though there is the Hopson issue in Hattiesburg, I still think Southern Miss will have a good season.  North Texas, on the other hand, without Mason Fine, will drop to near the bottom of the standings, ending their sojourn at the top of the West.
• UTEP is seriously bad.  I mean they’re a bit better than last year but not by much.  Watch out for Rice starting to improve and sneaking up the standings.
• Marshall looked seriously good this past weekend.  And I believe they will hold off the few teams below them to win the division crown.  Not like a 6-3 record scares anyone in college football but hey, it’s 2020, and that’s what you’re gonna get.
• On the other end of the scale is Middle Tennessee who looked atrocious against Army this past weekend.  Yes it’s the Black Knights and it can be difficult to defend against the option offense but seriously, they looked overmatched in every single way.
• As for the conference championship game, I think the Blazers will win it and it might not be close.  Or it will be.  Hell I don’t even know anymore.
• Again, no real discussions about bowl eligibility here but I have a feeling five wins, instead of six, will be the qualification point this season.  Just a thought with schedules being all over the place.

Alright so we have actually gone through a weekend of college football, albeit one that more resembles Week Zero.  We have another one coming up.  More games, but still not nearly as many as we are used to.  But the lack of late night games I’m starting to think will be a good thing…at least for my sleep patterns.  I will not do a recap for this past weekend since there’s not much to report.  BYU looked amazing against Navy last night, as did Army against Middle Tennessee.  You already heard about the upset South Alabama laid on Southern Miss and then there were some other FBS vs. FCS games.  Nothing huge.

OK next up is the Big XII in my conference predictions.  And of course, I will be doing my schedule post later this week.  Soon enough we will get into the real swing of things.  It feels like we are going up a steep hill right now, like the first part of a roller coaster.  Soon enough, we will put our arms up and scream in excitement of a college football season (or at least what we will end up getting in 2020).

The NFL also starts in two days so there’s going to be a lot more football soon.  This is a good thing.  Let’s hope there are no issues with the Coronavirus for all the teams and for any of us.  Have a great week everyone!

The 2019 College Football Coaching Hot Seat List

Clay might want to avoid airport tarmacs this season.

Look, I get it.  USC is one of the toughest coaching jobs in the nation.  Thanks to Pete Carroll, the standards are now always high in L.A.  That’s why you see guys like Lane Kiffin flame out and get fired on an airport tarmac (which is still one of the most hilarious coach firings ever).  Helton will need to get the Trojans to perform this year or he is in trouble.  How much trouble?  Well…

IT’S HOT SEAT TIME!  This post has been actually fairly accurate over the years.  I am holding on to this as much as I can considering a lot of my predictions turn out to be shit.

List time!  This is ordered (like every year) from most likely to be fired to least:

Almost Guaranteed Shitcanning

1. Randy Edsall (UConn) – Things are looking terrible for UConn football.  They have decided to move to the Big East for all sports, except football.  This means the AAC didn’t want them so next year, the Huskies become Independents.  Let’s just say Edsall’s second stint in Storrs has been drastically worse than his first stint.  Needed to keep his job – UConn to actually look like a decently competitive team.  Prediction – Will be gone before the end of the season but not before he gets more ridiculous bonuses thanks to his clause-laden contract.
2. Mike Neu (Ball State) – Ball State has looked like a MAC also-ran every year since they ran the regular season table over a decade ago.  Former Cardinal quarterback Neu has not righted the ship in the slightest.  It also doesn’t look like things will improve any time soon considering many players have transferred out as well.  Needed to keep his job – Bowl eligibility at the very least.  Prediction – He will be gone with either one or two games to go and will become a quarterback coach somewhere at a lower level in the next year or two.
3. Tony Sanchez (UNLV) – It was a bit of a risk getting Sanchez, a successful high school coach at Bishop Gorman in Vegas, to be the head man for the Rebels.  No offense to Tony but it’s a much different game and he has been overrated almost every year there.  Needed to keep his job – Play meaningful football in late November.  Prediction – He will end up being a lame duck coach for a game or two and then the search will be on for someone to coach this program into that brand new shiny stadium.
4. Mike Bobo (Colorado State) – This is a tough one.  It isn’t Bobo’s fault that he has had health concerns.  But he is the head coach so he is ultimately responsible for the program.  The Rams have become worse ever since they got their new stadium.  I see it getting worse before it gets better.  Needed to keep his job – Creeping towards bowl eligibility so like 4 or 5 wins.  Prediction – Bobo may resign before he gets fired if anything goes on with his health.  Either way, 2019 should be his last year in Fort Collins.
5. Frank Wilson (UTSA) – I thought of putting him in the next section but I am starting to think this is almost a guarantee now.  I am glad the Roadrunners gave him another chance to get things going again in San Antonio.  It’s a new program and they need some stability but at some point stability is less important than changing the program to get better. Needed to keep his job – At least four wins.  Prediction – I honestly can’t see the Roadrunners winning more than two games.  Other than Rice they are probably the worst team in Conference USA and Wilson will be shitcanned but this might wait until after the season is over.

Probable Shitcanning

6. Bob Davie (New Mexico) – This is the exact same spot Bob was in last season.  And he wasn’t fired.  Why?  Who knows, especially since it sounds like Davie is too much of a disciplinarian.  My guess is the buyout is too large and UNM can’t afford it.  Needed to keep his job – Bowl eligibility and the look of a program on the rise in the Mountain West.  Prediction – Three wins (AGAIN!) and a 95% chance of being canned as long as they have the money in Albuquerque to do so.
7. Philip Montgomery (Tulsa) – Tulsa has struggled in the American for the last two years.  Another can’t miss head coaching prospect has fallen pretty far.  I don’t see anything that lends to Tulsa improving but they really can’t get worse at this point.  Needed to keep his job – Four wins may be enough here.  Prediction – Less than 4 wins and probably a coaching change at some point after the season.
8. Charlie Strong (USF) – I am going out on a serious limb with this call.  He started off great and challenged UCF that first year in Tampa.  Last year the Bulls dropped to 7 wins and I see them missing out on bowl season this year.  Needed to keep his job – At least seven wins and not fall too far behind “twin brother” UCF.  Prediction – Below .500 and a surprising ousting (at least to the college football media).

Possible Shitcanning

9. Clay Helton (USC) – You would have thought him having his picture at the top of this blog post would have him at #1.  Not so fast, my friend (copyright Lee Corso).  His status all depends on how the Trojans do and do many think they will be as bad as they were last season?  Needed to keep his job – Back to at least 7 wins and challenging for the Pac-12 South title.  Prediction – I see the Trojans at the 7-win mark but considering the fans and alumni, that still might not be enough for poor Clay.
10. Chris Ash (Rutgers) – I know this might make no sense and I am wondering if I am doubting myself here.  No one really wants this job so why would they fire a guy who wants to stay there and build the program back up.  Needed to keep his job – 3 wins.  Prediction – I can’t see them winning over two games but again who else would they get to coach there?
11. Steve Addazio (Boston College) – Boston College is not bad.  Hasn’t been for years (for the most part).  But the fans and alumni might be getting a bit tired of the 7-win ceiling in Chestnut Hill.  It’s like a poor man’s Bo Pelini at this point.  Needed to keep his job – More than seven wins for God’s sake!  Prediction – I think they actually fall to 5 despite having one of the best running backs in the country.  So will they pull the trigger and do something to really try and make the Eagles a threat in the ACC or are the admins satisfied with being fourth or fifth in the ACC Atlantic for the foreseeable future?
12. Brent Brennan (San Jose State) – This program is bad.  Has been for the better part of, well, forever.  It’s got to the point where there are rumours that SJSU would be kicked out of the Mountain West to create a better conference.  That’s how bad things are for the Spartans (and that’s not just in football).  I think Brennan could be an OK coach but unless something drastic changes or they get a program-changing player to come to San Jose, nothing really will.  In the end, though, would letting Brennan go be the answer?  Needed to keep his job – For SJSU to win more than a couple games.  Prediction – I have the Spartans winning two games but who the hell knows what happens with this team and their coach.
13. Doug Martin (New Mexico State) – The coach could always be fired here.  This program is used to not being good at all.  I still believe that very few good coaches would want to go to Las Cruces to coach football (no offense to Las Cruces) so firing Martin may not make sense.  Needed to keep his job – Not be the worst Independent team.  Prediction – They should be better than UMass but that’s it.  Lucky for them, UConn joins their “team” of Independent teams so there could be one more team the Aggies feel superior to.

Doubtful Shitcanning (although it still could happen)

14. Lovie Smith (Illinois) – I have made peace with the fact that Lovie will not get fired.  Now watch him get canned midway through the year.  Needed to keep his job – To be in contention for bowl-eligibility late into the season.  Prediction – I’ve got them at 4 wins so technically with two games to go they should still have a chance to go to a bowl game.
15. Willie Taggart (Florida State) – Willie needs to get some slack here.  It’s not like Jimbo Fisher left him with an amazing program.  He deserves time to see if he can do what he did at USF.  Needed to keep his job – Back to a bowl game for now.  Prediction – I have the Noles winning 9 so they should at least be in the New Year’s Six conversation into November which might garner Taggart an extension instead of a spot on this list.
16. Gus Malzahn (Auburn) – Gus is going to be on this list forever I think.  Even when the Tigers beat both Georgia and Bama, the Gus Bus veers into the hot seat.  Something has to give I think…or not.  If he keeps winning 7 or 8 games then this will continue ad infinitum.  Needed to keep his job –  Honestly?  Another 7 or 8 win season.  Prediction – 8 wins so we will see you next year when I discuss Gus again.
17. Matt Luke (Ole Miss) – Two seasons of sanctions doesn’t help Luke’s cause here.  But now with two really good coordinators he will have no excuses for failure.  Not doing well, even in the SEC West, would, at the very least put Luke on a hotter seat than he is on now.  Needed to keep his job – Bowl eligibility in their first year back after being barred from the postseason.  Prediction – Four wins and the rumours that Rich Rod will get the job for 2020.
18. Mike Bloomgren (Rice) – It’s a tale of two schools in the Houston area.  There’s Houston and then there’s Rice.  Houston is one of the better Group of Five teams.  Rice is Rice.  Don’t expect much from Bloomgren and the Owls although at some point the admins will want to see some progress.  Needed to keep his job – Don’t do anything stupid.  Prediction – A winless season which will move Bloomgren up this list despite the fact Rice has no talent.
19. Bobby Wilder (Old Dominion) – Things were looking great for the Monarchs.  A relatively new school and they went to the Bahamas Bowl back in 2016.  Wilder was even being considered for other openings.  Fast forward two-and-a-half years and, other than their massive upset of Virginia Tech last season, not much is going right for this program.  Needed to keep his job – 5 wins and playing meaningful football in Conference USA well into November.  Prediction – 5 wins and playing meaningful football in Conference USA well into November.

As you may have noticed there is no mention of Jim Harbaugh on this list.  First of all, I think the Wolverines get to the College Football Playoff.  And secondly, it is apparent that the admins at Michigan don’t have any inkling of firing Captain Khaki.  He will probably leave to go back to the NFL before he gets fired in Ann Arbor.

The final post is coming up for my predictions and it is my normally horrible Heisman ballot.  Then the season begins!  4 days away!  I will do a small post later this week on the Week Zero schedule.  Everything should be in place in the next day or two for the weekend (and the huge schedule of four games).  Enjoy your day everyone!

Your Special Boxing Day Bowl Recap #2

I hope all of you had a very Merry Christmas.  I hope you didn’t get too drunk.  I could understand if you did but sometimes moderation really is the way to go.  Anyway, where was I…

Oh that’s right.  Bowl games!  Yes they are still going on and will be through January 2^nd.  As I have said before, savour these games, even if they suck because soon enough we will be sans college football for months.  The horror!

Alright let’s get to the recap and maybe you can then work off all the eggnog you drank.

Miami Beach Bowl – Tulsa 55 Central Michigan 10

This was about as dominating performance I have ever seen in a bowl game.  This wasn’t even close from the get-go.  I am honestly surprised Philip Montgomery hasn’t got any feelers for Power Five coaching jobs.  He is an offensive guru and deserves a lot of credit for what he has done for the Golden Hurricane.  He has been overshadowed by coaches like Tom Herman and Matt Rhule in the AAC this season.  With them gone, expect Montgomery to get a lot of attention next season.

Boca Raton Bowl – Western Kentucky 51 Memphis 31

Boring bowl number two.  These games that get out of hand relatively early are, a lot of times, tough to watch.  This one was no exception.  I think many expected the Hilltoppers to pour on the points but I, for one, figured that Memphis would keep it close.  Not the case.  Alright so let’s move on to the next bowl and see if things get better…

Poinsettia Bowl – BYU 24 Wyoming 21

Now this is what I’m talking about.  I will say that the quality of play wasn’t exactly the best.  Thanks to San Diego getting one of their four days of rain for the year on that exact night, the Murph/Qualcomm/Former Chargers Stadium ended up being a bit of a quagmire.  But it was a close game.  Wyoming is looking good under Craig Bohl and should continue that next season.  The Cougs are almost always good so it will be interesting how much attention the next time realignment comes up.

Idaho Potato Bowl – Idaho 61 Colorado State 50

Hey another great bowl game.  Again with some extreme weather conditions.  It was one of the coldest bowl games on record in Boise and it showed.  The blue turf (which is getting old btw), turned into a huge skating rink.  It made defense basically impossible.  For once I don’t fully blame the two teams for that.  But it was fun to watch.  Points and points and points and points and points, etc.  I find it a bit ironic that a team that is moving down to FCS just put 61 up on the scoreboard in a bowl game.

Bahamas Bowl – Old Dominion 24 Eastern Michigan 20

This bowl is the bane of my existence (well, one of several banes).  A bowl game before Christmas on at 1 in the afternoon.  Who thinks up this shit?  I get that they want to show the beauty of the Bahamas during the day time and so we also get to see Mack Brown in terrible island tourist wear.  It’s too bad since the game was great and it really was two teams who very much wanted to be there and played their hearts out.  I would watch out for the Monarchs next season in Conference USA as they look to be pretty damn good under Bobby Wilder.  I sure hope EMU can put together two decent seasons in a row but the jury is out on them.

Armed Forces Bowl – Louisiana Tech 48 Navy 45

Of all the good bowl games thus far, this could have been the best.  An absolute classic.  Navy is always fun football to watch but the Bulldogs are a bit of a revelation if you don’t watch much Conference USA (which we here in Canada really don’t).  And speaking of Conference USA, why the hell do they look so bad as a conference during the regular season and then so good in bowl season?  I don’t get it.  Anyway, great game, still not happy with the start time of 4:30 but this is the argument to keep as many bowl games as possible on the schedule.

Dollar General Bowl – Troy 28 Ohio 23

One of the greatest turnaround seasons of the decade ended with the Trojans beating the Fighting Soliches of Ohio in yet another close bowl game.  Neal Brown is already being touted as a coach who may move up to a better program.

Hawaii Bowl – Hawaii 52 Middle Tennessee 35

This is one of the arguments against more bowl games.  It was a pretty good game with a lot of points but there weren’t that many people there to enjoy it.  You know, with the HOME TEAM playing in its own stadium.  They said there were over 20,000 people there.  I don’t buy that.  If there were more than 12,000 I would have been shocked.  It’s a bit of a sad state that a home team can’t at least half fill their own stadium for a bowl game.  No wonder teams move down to FCS.  I can see more of that happening.

There you go!  Again, I hope you had a great Christmas.  Boxing Day’s bowl schedule looks like, possibly, the worst day of multiple bowl games ever.  I sure as hell hope that some of the games are good today.  Also, there is the Monday nighter in the NFL.  Easily the best one of the year as the Lions face the Cowboys.  So there’s always that.  Enjoy the games everyone!

And the week did end up a bit mundane – Week 12 College Football Recap

 

You know…..except for THIS!

It was kind of a boring week in college football really.  We had a few close calls as we normally do with so many games.  You can’t have the favourites winning 60+ games in a week.  However, what happened in Lawrence was insane.  Not that Texas is that good because they aren’t.  But Kansas (KANSAS!) beat Texas in overtime.  Repeat that one or two more times.  It hasn’t happened since 1938.  That is completely insane.  It is also the final nail in the coffin for ol’ Charlie Strong.  Poor guy has been run through the ringer in Austin.  No way he comes back from that.  Not a chance.

Rest of the Fun-time Recap

This was the kind of week I don’t mind having to watch stuff through PVR.  I was able to catch Florida-LSU.  I had tOSU-Sparty on there.  Also decided to record KU-UT.  So most of the more exciting football I got.  There really wasn’t a lot to choose from.

• Let’s start the rescheduled mess that was Florida-LSU: Lucky for them it was a good game with an amazing finish. That goal line stand by Florida was epic (broken play on 4^th and Goal notwithstanding).  Seeing Jim Bob McElwain get emotional at the end there was the coup de grace.  Greg Sankey and the SEC should feel damn lucky this game turned out the way it did.
• Michigan State shouldn’t have been within an area code of Ohio State. Yet somehow they were within a single point when Mark Dantonio went for two.  I don’t know why.  Usually I am a proponent of rolling the dice but this felt like the risk was not worth it.  Tie it up and force the Buckeyes to score something.  Oh well, my Michigan State prediction for this season continues to look worse and worse.
• Snowy weather everywhere. It feels like we bypassed most of Fall and went straight to Winter.  Case in point: you could barely see what was going on at times in Morgantown.  Doesn’t seem to matter though: the Sooners thoroughly destroyed the Mountaineers in every facet of the game.
• Speaking of keeping it close in the Big Ten when it shouldn’t have been, what was going on at Michigan? Another way-too-close game that should have been anything but.  Doesn’t give me much confidence in the Big Ten.
• Good job, Louisville. Any hope to sneak into the College Football Playoff went up in flames Thursday night.  And who picked Houston to pull off the upset?  This guy!
• Colorado played tough against Washington State and pulled off the win. I thought Wazzu would give a bit more of a fight but oh well.  It sets up a game against Utah where a win inexplicably gives them the Pac-12 South.    Mike MacIntyre has clinched Coach of the Year.  The reason they haven’t clinched the division is because…
• USC beat UCLA pretty handily for the Victory Bell. They are done their Pac-12 schedule so have to await their fate.  I will be honest: as much as I am enjoying the Buffs’ run to glory, a USC-Washington rematch would be quite tasty.

I don’t have much more to say in the recap.  There wasn’t much to recap in the first place.  So let’s move to some clinching scenarios.

Clinching Scenarios!

Alright, more important to look at these now since we are in the last true regular season week (other than those crazies from the Big XII and Sun Belt: I will include them but they should just conform to the rest of the conference friends):

SEC

Alabama and Florida have clinched their respective divisions and will play in the SEC Championship in two weeks’ time where Bama will probably kick the Gators’ ass all over the Georgia Dome for the last time.

Big Ten

In the east, Penn State controls its destiny: beat Michigan State and they are off to Indy.  Lose and then the game that will have just ended between Ohio State and Michigan will be for the division title.

CORRECTION: Thanks to reader John M, I need to correct this.  Michigan goes to Indy with a win.  They lose and it’s Penn State that controls its destiny.  I wonder if I put that because I believe tOSU will win.  No excuses though.

The Big Ten West race could be over on Black Friday.  Nebraska plays Iowa in Farmageddon.  If they win, they force Wisconsin to have to win to clinch the Big Ten West.  If Nebraska loses, Wisky goes to Indy no matter what they do.

Big XII

It’s all about Bedlam.  Winner takes the Big XII and the Sugar Bowl spot (although the CFP spot is probably long gone).

Pac-12

The Apple Cup will decide the Pac-12 North title.  I don’t think this has ever happened before.

I mentioned above what the scenario is between Colorado and USC.  All up to the Buffaloes now in a tough match against Utah.

ACC

Clemson is in.  They await either Virginia Tech or North Carolina.  The Hokies control their own fate.  Win the Commonwealth Cup over Virginia and they go to Charlotte Orlando to face the Tigers.  If they lose, then North Carolina will have the opportunity to set up the ACC Title rematch.  They would have to beat NC State.  If both teams lose, it’s the Hokies will get the nod.

American

Navy is already going to the title game but probably won’t host it.  Temple has the upper hand on USF.  They beat them head-to-head.  Win and they host Navy for the American title.  Lose and USF wins, then USF will play Navy (I would have to check the tie-breakers to see where it would end up being).  If both teams lose, Temple will win the East.

Mountain West

San Diego State clinched like seven months ago.  Wyoming is still in the driver’s seat and could be heading for a rematch with the Aztecs (again at home) if they can beat New Mexico (no easy task).  If they lose, a Boise State win over Air Force would propel the Broncos into the title game.

MAC

The West comes down to Western Michigan and Toledo this Friday.  A Toledo win gives the Rockets the MAC West title and ruins the MAC’s chances at getting into the New Year’s Six.

In the East, Ohio has the upper hand.  Beat Akron tomorrow night (tomorrow night?) and they go to Detroit.  Lose and Miami-Ohio of all teams can win the East if they defeat Ball State (again tomorrow night…MACtion baby!).

Conference USA

Louisiana Tech is in as they seem to be the only halfway-decent team in the West division.  In the East, WKU and Old Dominion are tied in the standings but the Hilltoppers slaughtered the Monarchs earlier this season.  Beat Marshall Saturday night and they are golden.  Don’t and ODU gets a chance to get in if they win their final regular season game against FIU.

Sun Belt

Next year will be interesting to see if the Sun Belt decides to go with divisions in their only season with twelve teams.  They should.  Why not right?  Anyway, Arkansas State would have to lose their final two games to cause potential chaos in the Sun Belt.  Win just one and it’s over.  If for some reason the Red Wolves do lose both, Troy, Appalachian State, and even Idaho could have a shot depending on the tiebreakers.  Idaho winning the Sun Belt a season before they leave for FCS would be glorious.

There you go.  I will have much more on bowl eligibility and the postseason in my scheduling post on either Wednesday or Thursday.  Sure to be a loooooooong post.

Tonight, Mexico City hosts Houston and Oakland on Monday Night Football.  Finally, two good teams at an international site.  That definitely was not done on purpose.  Hope both teams survive.  NFL recap coming tomorrow.  Enjoy the game tonight!

Conference USA better thank the Sun Belt…otherwise they’d look in the mirror and see the worst FBS conference

And to be honest, I find SBC football more exciting to watch than C-USA football…namely because I see more of their games.  Conference USA has the worst TV contract, by far, of all the FBS conferences.  At least you can see some #FunBelt and #MACtion games starting in October during the week.  Not the Clusterfuck USA conference.  Oh no.  You may get a game on MyTV in this area unless they have a HOT Patriot or Ivy League game to show instead.  As much as I rag on the ACC and Big XII, this conference would be my selection to be absorbed by other Group of Five conferences since, as a whole, it suck-diddly-ucks.

Alright, it is time for my conference predictions.  Last season I actually did pretty well with these.  I am guessing It’s a fluke but hey, let’s ride the wave of positivity and go for two in a row!  The random draw starts this off and I see Conference USA got the nod.  As I have said above, we in this area see less of Conference USA than any other conference in FBS.  And really, other than the top three or four in the conference, it’s a bit of a wasteland.  Teams that don’t want to start in the Sun Belt but aren’t good enough for the American or Mountain West fall here.  And it shows.  If conferences could get along, they would talk with the Sun Belt and put all the Eastern teams in one conference and all the Western teams in another so they could be more regional than either of them are now.

I am going to do things slightly different this season.  Instead of going over each team individually I will post my predicted standings, followed by some notes on what the fuck I was thinking.  So here goes nothing:

	Conference		Overall
East	W	L	W	L
Marshall	7	1	9	3
Western Kentucky	6	2	9	3
Middle Tennessee	6	2	7	5
Florida Atlantic	3	5	5	7
Old Dominion	3	5	5	7
FIU	2	6	4	8
Charlotte	0	8	1	11
West
Southern Miss	8	0	10	2
Louisiana Tech	6	2	8	4
Rice	5	3	6	6
UTEP	4	4	7	5
UTSA	2	6	3	9
North Texas	0	8	0	12

Notes and Things

• The bottom of the conference will stay the same. Charlotte and North Texas will scrape the bottom of the barrel.  And when UAB returns in 2017 there is no guarantee that the 49ers and Mean Green will leapfrog them.  I give Charlotte their due since they are new here (for the most part) but North Texas (Forty) has fallen on hard times.  Hopefully a new coaching staff can turn things around there.
• Seven bowl-eligible teams from this conference including UTEP. Yes, UTEP.  No I am not drunk.  The Miners’ schedule is one of the easiest in the conference.  It helps when you have New Mexico State, Army, and Houston Baptist on the non-con schedule.  Who do these guys think they are with this schedule, Baylor?
• I have Florida Atlantic and Old Dominion juuuuuuuuuuuuuust missing out on bowl eligbility at 5-7. FAU has a bit of a rough conference sked having to play Marshall, MTSU, and Rice all on the road.  Also, the Shula Bowl is at FIU.  They also get Miami and Kansas State in non-conference play so there’s six losses (probably) right there.  ODU, on the other hand, should start 4-2 but then get WKU, Marshall, and Southern Miss in three out of four weeks in the middle of the season.    That will probably kill any momentum the Monarchs have.
• In the West, Southern Miss seems to be the clear front-runner to win the division title. LaTech and Rice have dropped off a bit, UTEP isn’t a contender yet, and UTSA and North Texas are brutally bad.  So barring any injuries, the Golden Eagles, in Jay Hopson’s first season, should roll to the C-USA Championship game.
• Out East, Marshall, Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee will be in a dogfight for the division crown. Marshall lucks out, getting the other two at home and winning both games to clinch the East division title.
• I think Southern Miss has become the class of C-USA (at least for this season) and will roll Marshall to win the conference pretty handily. It doesn’t really matter in the end because 10-2 is not nearly enough to get the Group of Five New Year’s Six bowl spot.

I will show all my bowl predictions in one of the last prediction posts.  Expect that in about a month or so.  Next up is the Big XII who may or may not expand to 12 or 14 teams for next season.  Just make the decision already (at least for 2017) and stop fucking around.  We are all getting sick and tired of it.