This post is really long. Like seriously fucking long. So if you are not fully awake or have some caffeine in your system, you might want to wait to read this. Viewer discretion is strongly advised.
I have done this three times before. It’s time for number four!
Instead of doing a full recap and then a full bowl projections post, I figured I would combine them into one insanely long post! Why? To save time! That is complete bullshit but that is what I have told myself every year so I will continue to do so. It was an…let’s call it an OK week of college football that contained a few exciting games. We are headed into an exciting finish to the season. Now we can see how COVID will wreak havoc on it since it will most certainly happen. We just don’t know when and to what team(s).
Let’s start with recapping the week that was. There were a few fun things that happened and I slept in way too long Sunday morning. A Fall tradition.
- One of three ranked-on-ranked games on the week had Iowa State outlast Texas. The difference here was mostly one guy: Breece Hall. His work on the ground was a boon for the Cyclone offense as he was able to help ISU milk a lot of clock in this one. He is a lot like a Clone legend: Troy Davis. A great player who won’t get any Heisman hype because of the team he plays for. So now Iowa State has almost clinched their ticket to JerryWorld which will be a nice change from seeing mostly bluebloods in the Big XII Championship since it returned.
- Florida beat Kentucky easily. Georgia beat South Carolina even easier this past weekend. The Dawgs have to be rooting for the Vols to win this Saturday over Florida to have any chance at being in the SEC Championship. I can see many UGA fans having a bad taste in their mouth for having to root for Tennessee but it is what it is. You know what? Blame it on COVID. It will make it feel a bit better.
- You all saw it I’m sure. Sarah Fuller became the first woman to play in a Power Five football game. That, in and of itself, is a huge accomplishment. And of course Twitter, being full of very level-headed people, went crazy over it. Many loved it but there were some that said it was nothing but a PR stunt. Here is my take on this. Vandy had no kickers. They needed to find someone to kick the damn ball during their game against Missouri. Was Fuller the best option? Who knows but she was at least a decent option as she played for the Dores’ SEC Championship women’s soccer team. So let’s get to her kicking off to start the second half of the game which was her first opportunity to kick the ball. It was a squib kick that went a little over 30 yards. For people that don’t think it was a squib kick, give me a fucking break. The ball wasn’t on a tee, it was held by a player and the Commodores overloaded on the right side, where the squib went. They wanted to do something different to hopefully get anything going for them in this game. That was Fuller’s only kick of the game as Vandy was shutout 41-0 by Mizzou. I think people have to realize something about all this. Vandy is straight trash this season. No COVID excuses here: they are just awful. This felt like trying something different to try something different. That it was historic is icing on the cake. Now there seems to be other issues as Derek Mason was just fired and it sounded, from the words of Fuller, a few players and a couple of coaches, that there was no energy on the sideline most of the season and it’s like many had given up before the season had started. They need a jolt in Nashville to get this team at least being competitive in the SEC. And that might involve a complete rethinking of the football program at Vanderbilt. Thank you for coming to my college football Ted Talk.
- LSU’s offense basically took the day off on Saturday. If it wasn’t for a late touchdown they would have been shutout by Texas A&M. It’s funny that a 20-7 dominating win over the defending national champions does very little to move the needle for the Aggies. I still think they have an inside shot at the College Football Playoff but will need to run their next two opponents off the field to convince The Committee.
- Oregon blew it against Oregon State. But that wasn’t the story. The story was the Pac-12 officiating crew calling the game. Oregon goes offside (that anyone could see) and it’s not called. The Beavers scored a touchdown but it was called short. This meant another play had to be run where their quarterback got injured. This was all in the final minute. And the officials seemed to have no idea how to call anything. It was atrocious. I am sure they will get a pay raise for it.
- In almost-upset news, Iowa almost gakked their game away to Nebraska in the annual Black Friday CornHub game. And this is not really a good Huskers program these days. They really have not been a contender for a long time (and no I don’t include that time they started 7-0 a few years back and then were terrible the rest of the way). I am sure they long for the days of Bo Pelini. Hell they may desire the Bill Callahan days! Scott Frost will be on a seriously hot seat to start next season and now some have to look back and take back their thoughts of basically poaching him from UCF as the Knights are still doing quite well under Josh Heupel.
- The game that was created mere days in advance, put on late night on ESPN because of other cancellations, then moved into the ABC primetme spot due to MORE cancellations, did not disappoint. It was all Utah in the first half and then all Washington in the second half. The Huskies ended up holding on for the victory after taking a late lead and stay undefeated. This may only lead to a possible New Year’s Six bid but at this point I am sure Pac-12 teams are very happy to be playing (when they get the opportunity to play that is).
- SMU got boatraced for most of the game by *checks notes* East Carolina? What the hell? It was 45-7 at the half for the Pirates. So either ECU is much better than most of us figured or the Mustangs are not nearly as good as many of us thought. I’m going to go with the latter so this doesn’t seem like a massive upset.
- If you missed it, history was made in western New York. Buffalo Bulls running back Jaret Patterson went off on Kent State. Patterson scored eight rushing touchdowns, tying Howard Griffith’s 30-year-old record! He also came within 18 yards of Samaje Perine’s single-game record of 427 rushing yards. An absolutely unreal performance. And get this: Bulls head coach Lance Leipold had no idea he had tied the record and took him out for their final drive (where Patterson’s backup scored a touchdown). Worst part is Patterson will get no Heisman hype at all. But some NFL team will be very happy to have him on Sundays (and Thursdays and Mondays and sometimes Tuesdays).
- A game that almost no one would have watched had a great finish in Big XII country. Baylor finally got their second win under first-year head coach Dave Aranda. It was a wild fourth quarter against Kansas State where 31 points were scored and the Bears scored with no time remaining. Hey remember early on in the season when the Wildcats were getting some contender hype? Yeah, neither do I.
- Penn State and Michigan played football on Saturday. That’s almost all I can say about that. At least the Nittany Lions got their first win of the season.
- Let’s get back to some insane football, Big XII Style. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech put on an (offensive) performance for the ages during the third quarter of their game. The two teams combined for five touchdowns in six minutes of play. Crazy! That included the Cowboys getting a touchdown off a Red Raider onside kick. The Pokes ended up winning, keeping their very slim Big XII Championship hopes alive.
- And now to look at something that was not so good. Late in their game against NC State, Syracuse quarterback Rex Culpepper gets sacked on third and long. So now, with no timeouts, they have to run a play as there is less than 10 seconds remaining. Instead, he gets under centre, gets the ball, and spikes it. That is really the perfect example of Syracuse’s season.
- Finally, a week after Northwestern beat Wisconsin to take full control of the Big Ten West, they get upset by Michigan State and look terrible doing it. College football, everybody!
Normally I would look at the conference championships and give out scenarios as to what may happen. With two weeks left, I won’t be doing that. Also, the fact most of the conference races are a mess doesn’t help. I will try and bring you this next week..
Alright, on to my bowl projections as of this moment, which may have no worth to them:
Sugar Bowl | CFP Poll #1 vs. CFP Poll #4 | Alabama vs. Ohio State |
Rose Bowl | CFP Poll #2 vs. CFP Poll #3 | Notre Dame vs. Miami |
Clemson out, Notre Dame in. I think the Irish win the rematch in the ACC Championship to clinch the #2 spot. Ohio State’s resume took a hit with the cancellation of their game but I still see them holding on to the #4 spot.
Which means the New Year’s Six has changed. But how has it changed?
Orange Bowl | ACC Champ vs. SEC #2 | Clemson vs. Texas A&M |
Fiesta Bowl | CFP At-large vs. CFP At-large/G5 #1 | USC vs. Oklahoma |
Peach Bowl | CFP At-large vs. CFP At-large/G5 #1 | Florida vs. Cincinnati |
Cotton Bowl | CFP At-large vs. CFP At-large/G5 #1 | Iowa State vs. Georgia |
A lot of changes. I already mentioned Clemson losing to Notre Dame again but with Miami in the Top 4, they are slotted in the Orange Bowl as the ACC representative. I have decided that Texas A&M might be picked instead of Florida for the Orange Bowl. I don’t know why, I just thought that. So that moves Florida to the Peach Bowl. Oklahoma, losers of the Big XII Championship, would still be high enough to get the Fiesta Bowl bid since The Committee obviously doesn’t want to put BYU in. Iowa State, now Big XII champions in my projections, go to the Cotton Bowl and face Georgia who replaces Texas as the final team in.
Now the rest of bowl season which is a shitshow with the pandemic and every team being bowl-eligible and no one knowing the criteria anymore and man I think I need to make myself a drink.
Outback Bowl | SEC vs. Big Ten | Kentucky vs. Northwestern |
Gator Bowl | SEC vs. ACC | Ole Miss vs. NC State |
Citrus Bowl | SEC vs. Big Ten | Auburn vs. Indiana |
Birmingham Bowl | SEC/ACC vs. G5 | Mississippi State vs. BYU |
Texas Bowl | SEC vs. Big XII | Missouri vs. TCU |
Liberty Bowl | SEC vs. Big XII | Tennessee vs. West Virginia |
Arizona Bowl | MWC vs. MAC | Nevada vs. Buffalo |
Sun Bowl | Pac-12 vs. ACC | Colorado vs. Boston College |
Armed Forces Bowl | Big XII vs G5 | Baylor vs. Liberty |
LA Bowl | Pac-12 vs. MWC | Arizona State vs. San Jose State |
Music City Bowl | SEC vs. Big Ten | LSU vs. Iowa |
Duke’s Mayo Bowl | Big Ten vs. ACC | Wisconsin vs. North Carolina |
Alamo Bowl | Big XII vs. Pac-12 | Texas vs. Oregon |
Cheez-It Bowl | Big XII vs. ACC | Oklahoma State vs. Virginia Tech |
Military Bowl | American vs. ACC | Memphis vs. Virginia |
Guaranteed Rate Bowl | Big XII vs. Big Ten | Kansas State vs. Nebraska |
Independence Bowl | Army vs. Pac-12 | Army vs. Utah |
LendingTree Bowl | Sun Belt vs. G5 | Appalachian State vs. SMU |
First Responder Bowl | Big XII/ACC vs. G5 | Texas Tech vs. Louisiana |
Cure Bowl | G5 vs. G5 | Florida Atlantic vs. UCF |
Gasparilla Bowl | SEC/ACC vs. G5 | Wake Forest vs. Miami-OH |
Camellia Bowl | G5 vs. G5 | UTSA vs. Fresno State |
New Mexico Bowl | MWC vs. G5 | Air Force vs. Louisiana Tech |
Montgomery Bowl | ACC vs. American | Pittsburgh vs. Tulsa |
New Orleans Bowl | C-USA vs. Sun Belt | Marshall vs. Coastal Carolina |
Boca Raton Bowl | G5 vs. G5 | Central Michigan vs. Charlotte |
Idaho Potato Bowl | MWC vs. MAC | Boise State vs. Western Michigan |
Myrtle Beach Bowl | G5 vs. G5 | Ohio vs. San Diego State |
Las Vegas Bowl | SEC vs. Pac-12 | Arkansas vs. Washington |
Frisco Bowl | G5 vs. G5 | UAB vs. Troy |
A few notes for your perusal:
- Did you notice the missing bowl? I am guessing probably not. The Pinstripe Bowl has been cancelled due to concerns over COVID-19 and I have a feeling it won’t be the last.
- The tie-ins actually work better this year with the pandemic parameters (pandameters?). Putting all the G5 teams into a pool after the conference tie-ins are satisfied and having all teams eligible makes it easier to fill in the bowls. Now the chances of me being right have gone way down because of it but that’s a different conversation.
- Army, as far as I know, is still the only team that has accepted a bowl bid. They accepted it over a month ago. I am not joking.
- I still have no idea if the Las Vegas Bowl is being run. The website says the 2020 Las Vegas Bowl will be run but it doesn’t mention a date. So I will keep it in until I find out otheriwse.
- I still don’t understand the idea of split tie-ins. Just pick a conference and go with it. Or have a pool of teams to pick from like they have done this year (and I hope they do in the future). That would at least make more sense. Then again, nothing much makes sense this year.
Other than those few items, not much to talk about specifically about the bowl projections. A fair amount has changed in terms of what I am projecting but they aren’t wild changes. That might change starting this coming weekend. With only two weeks left in the regular season (kind of), much will happen over this time. The problem is, with all teams bowl eligible, I can’t see many accepting bowl bids until conference championship weekend.
UPDATE: The Sun Bowl, one of the longest running bowl games in college football, has been cancelled this year. See what I mean?
Now I figured instead of doing the conference championship scenarios, I will look into potential scenarios of the future and what they would like in this crazy 2020 season (using the current AP poll rankings).
The five-team CFP
I have advocated for one more team to be added to the College Football Playoff instead of going to eight which is what many want. What would that do this season? This:
- Peach Bowl (play-in game): #4 Clemson vs. #5 Texas A&M
- Sugar Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. Clemson/TAMU winner
- Rose Bowl: #2 Notre Dame vs. #3 Ohio State
I would dig this. Doing the Peach Bowl on the opening day of bowl season would allow this to happen. Now, other things would have to take place because the schedule is a fucking mess but if it had been set up properly, this could occur. Ratings, baby!
The six-team CFP
Two teams added. OK. Let’s see how this could work out:
- Orange Bowl: #3 Ohio State vs. #6 Florida
- Peach Bowl: #4 Clemson vs. #5 Texas A&M
- Sugar Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. lower-ranked winner from play-in weekend
- Rose Bowl: #2 Notre Dame vs. higher-ranked winner from play-in weekend
Again, I could go for this for sure. Is it adding a game for two teams possibly? Yes. There are ways around this for sure. Like get rid of conference championships? Oh wait, that’s money in the conference’s pockets. Can’t do that. And yes, I have ISU predicted at #6.
The eight-team CFP
This is what people want. OK what would it look like for this season?
- Peach Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #8 BYU
- Fiesta Bowl: #2 Notre Dame vs. #7 Cincinnati
- Orange Bowl: #3 Ohio State vs. #6 Florida
- Cotton Bowl: #4 Clemson vs. #5 Texas A&M
I mean this gets Cincinnati and BYU in so that would be a plus. I still kind of don’t like the idea of moving to eight teams but I know it will happen for the new CFP contract.
G-5 Playoffs
What if the Group of Five decided “Fuck it we are having our own tournament to crown a champion.” They won’t but I could see a lot of people watching these games. The quarter-finals would look like this:
- Cincinnati vs. Buffalo
- BYU vs. Liberty
- Coastal Carolina vs. Tulsa
- Marshall vs. Louisiana
I would watch the hell out of this, not going to lie. Now I assume that, at least for the quarter-finals, the higher-ranked teams would play at home but who knows.
Alright that is it. No more. A seriously long post is complete. Later this week I will try and piece together the college and pro schedules. I think I have a better chance of herding squirrels. Have a good week everyone!