We have to have some chaos…right? – Conference Championship Weekend TV schedule

Posted on November 30, 2023 by guelphbossman

I have to say it was a fun final regular season weekend of college football. Especially the Iron Bowl. What a ridiculous finish. Now we get into the postseason part of the season. So there has to be some chaos, right? Some upset? Any upset? Sure there were a few during the season but really the big upset has taken a big nap this year. And that’s part of college football. Not having those has taken something away from this season. Let’s hope this coming weekend can bring some of that chaos back. Fingers crossed. Let’s get on with the schedule.

Friday

Conference USA Championship: New Mexico State (+10.5) at #24 Liberty

7:00

This network continues to be smart in the way they figure out WHEN to put a game. They get an entire national audience for almost an entire half and then, if the game is close, many people will stick with it to the end. Brilliant. Plus, with the added possibility of seeing a potential New Year’s Six berth clinched here, it means they should get more eyeballs on this game than ever before. Prediction: This game is the biggest one, not only in Liberty’s history, but in Conference USA’s history. This is their chance to put a team in the New Year’s Six for the first time. The first part gets done this night. Liberty 39 New Mexico State 34.

The final Pac-12 Championship and, arguably, the most important conference championship is being held on a Friday night starting at 5:00 local time. Hell, ESPN/ABC is sending their best crew to this. This feels like the final slap in the face to the Pac-12. Anyway, this is massive. The winner is a lock for the College Football Playoff and the loser gets relegated to the New Year’s Six. It’s that simple. Prediction: This is going to be an offensive showcase between two of the Heisman contenders in Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. The guy who wins, I believe, won’t be the Heisman winner. Although I guess there’s always a possibility Jayden Daniels wins it instead of either of these two. Washington 49 Oregon 38.

Saturday Early

Easily the only game that matters early on. Texas has to win and get quite a bit of help to get into the College Football Playoff. They will know the lay of the land after the Pac-12 Championship, especially if Oregon wins since that will mean a better shot to join the party. Prediction: The Longhorns do what they need to do but will have to wait to see if it is enough. Texas 52 Oklahoma State 27.

MAC Championship: Miami-OH (+7.5) vs. Toledo (in Detroit)

Noon

Well, from the College Football Playoff rankings we now know that Toledo has no chance at the NY6, despite having an 11-1 record. Nothing will allow them to leapfrog Tulane, Liberty or SMU. I would say this is for a trip back to Detroit for the Quick Lane Bowl but even that is in doubt thanks to tie-ins that don’t even tie a conference in to a bowl game. Prediction: Should be close like their regular season matchup. Toledo 24 Miami-OH 20.

Saturday Afternoon

Now that the strange computer rankings saga to figure out who would actually be in the conference championship game is over, we can focus ont the game itself. Really, they are probably playing for a spot in the LA Bowl but who the hell knows. It will be interesting to see how many people are in Allegiant Stadium as it hosts its second conference championship in less than 24 hours. Prediction: This isn’t on the Smurf Turf so you have to give the advantage to the Rebels here. UNLV 41 Boise State 38.

Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian State (+6.5) at Troy

4:00

Where does the winner go? Who the fuck knows anymore. Prediction: I will be thinking about how this would have been a hundred times better if James Madison was hosting Troy. Troy 34 Appalachian State 16.

SEC Championship: #8 Alabama (+5.5) vs. #1 Georgia (in Atlanta)

4:00

Is Georgia in no matter what? Probably although you never know how things will shake out with The Committee. Bama is going to have win this by like 50 to even get a glance from them as they are probably too far out to get their shot. Prediction: This is going to be really close and really good. I just feel it. Georgia 49 Alabama 42.

Tulane goes back to the NY6 with a win in this one. But what happens if SMU wins? That is where the fun begins (as long as Liberty wins their game on Friday). I still believe that SMU would have to hope Liberty loses since there is no way to pass them but I could be wrong. Prediction: Tulane is heading back to the promised land but it won’t be easy. Tulane 41 SMU 34.

SWAC Championship: Prairie View A&M at Florida A&M

4:00

Florida A&M has been money since joining the SWAC. Honestly, I think Deion Sanders may have been right. Have all the MEAC schools join the SWAC. One huge mega-HBCU-conference. ESPN might not like that though because they have the Celebration Bowl on the opening day of Bowl Season and you know how ESPN is about their bowls. Even with the 12-team playoff they will want to add bowls so that 4-8 Houston can face 4-8 Colorado. Prediction: The Rattlers are going to beat the brakes off of Prairie View and move on to the Celebration Bowl where they will be in an uncomfortably close game with a team that’s not even close to their level in Howard. Like most of the Celebration Bowls. Florida A&M 56 Prairie View A&M 14.

Saturday Primetime

All the FSU talk is about the loss of Jordan Travis. I get it. With him, you look like a national championship contender. Without him, not so much. Saying that, they know what they have to do. Win. Doesn’t matter how. Just win. And I wondered if they were going to be able to do that against this Cardinals team but after Louisville’s performance against Kentucky, I started to wonder about that. Prediction: The Noles do enough to win. The defense keeps the Cardinals offense at bay. FSU off to the CFP. Florida State 37 Louisville 27.

The spread is almost as high as the over/under for Iowa’s game last week against Nebraska. How sad/hilarious is that? Michigan is in with a win and maybe even with a loss depending on what has happened before this point. Prediction: Iowa has survived a lot of games with their defense. They won’t here. This could get ugly. Michigan 44 Iowa 10.

FCS Second Round: Southern Illinois at Idaho

10:00 PM

Hey, an added bonus! Some FCS playoff action! From what I can tell this may be close but we shall see since my FCS knowledge isn’t that great. And despite the fact they are playing in the awesome Kibbie Dome, wouldn’t it have been ten times more hilarious if this were outdoors…in Moscow, Idaho…in December? Oh my. Prediction: Watch this prediction be WAY off. Idaho 38 Southern Illinois 33.

We are almost at the end. It’s college football’s Judgment Day and it’s coming quickly. And we are slowly heading towards bowl season and the end of the college football season. So enjoy the games everyone!

SUPER MEGA HYPER OMNI POST! Version 6.0.0

Posted on November 21, 2022 by guelphbossman

I have sent out the warning before so if you know about it you can skip to the next section. But if you are new to this, here it is: this post is insanely long. Don’t read this on the toilet since I am sure you could get hemorrhoids for being on the can that long. Hell, don’t even take it into the bath with you. I don’t think your skin can wrinkle that much. You have been forewarned. So get your favourite drink, sit down and enjoy this absolute avalanche of information.

This is the sixth version of this stupidly long post; however, it’s only the second with the same format as last year’s. Longer and uncut. No recaps since I don’t do those anymore but my Top 25, bowl projections, conference championship scenarios and some other crazy crap that you may or may not have even wanted to look at. Let’s get the ball rolling with the Bossman Top 25.

#1	Georgia
#2	Ohio State
#3	TCU
#4	USC
#5	Michigan
#6	LSU
#7	Oregon
#8	Clemson
#9	Alabama
#10	Penn State
#11	Tennessee
#12	Washington
#13	Utah
#14	Kansas State
#15	Notre Dame
#16	Florida State
#17	Tulane
#18	UCLA
#19	North Carolina
#20	Oregon State
#21	Cincinnati
#22	Ole Miss
#23	Texas
#24	Coastal Carolina
#25	UCF

So nothing really happened near the top although I have adjusted my rankings a bit. I have USC in now and Michigan out. I still think Michigan’s schedule has been mostly shit this season. That will all change if they beat tOSU so really, this doesn’t matter. I think USC has put themselves in the driver’s seat to get one of the Top 4 spots. Beat Notre Dame and win the Pac-12 Championship and they are golden…I think. The Group of Five will go through the American Conference although UCF’s loss to Navy has opened the door for a trio of Sun Belt teams (Coastal Carolina, Troy and South Alabama) to still have a sliver of hope although a lot has to happen for them to even have a legitimate shot. Finally, I think the Big XII will have the lowest ranked team in the New Year’s Six because I can’t see Kansas State beating TCU for the Big XII title.

Alright so far so good. I think. I hope. Let’s get on with the second part of this massive post, the conference championship game scenarios.

Toledo has clinched the MAC West already. In the MAC East, Ohio can clinch tomorrow night with a win over Bowling Green. Now, with Buffalo’s game against Akron getting postponed and probably cancelled outright, I don’t know what happens if Ohio loses and then the Bulls beat Kent State. The Bulls would have played one less conference game and would win the division if they had been allowed to play Akron and then won. An odd scenario that may become moot if the Bobcats win.

UTSA has clinched a spot in the conference title game and will host (I had wondered if the game would be moved permanently to the Alamodome but that won’t happen now that UTSA heads to the AAC next season).

North Texas is in the driver’s seat for the other spot (remember there are no divisions in Conference USA this season thank fucking God). If the Mean Green beat Rice they are off to San Antonio. Lose then that opens the door for WKU. If they can beat FAU they will play the Roadrunners.

Coastal Carolina is already in the championship game. It’s going to be close but I have a feeling the Chants will host the game as well. The host is the highest ranked team in the CFP Poll.

Troy beat South Alabama earlier this season so if they beat Arkansas State they will win the Sun Belt West. A loss and a USA win and it’s the Jaguars who will win. Both teams are looking for their first division title.

Boise State and Fresno State punched their tickets to the conference championship game with wins this weekend.

UCF had a chance to claim one of the conference title game spots but lost against Navy. They are still in with a win in the War on I-4 against USF. If they lose then the loser of the Tulane-Cincinnati game will play…the winner of the Tulane-Cincinnati game in the championship.

This was looking like a complete shitshow going into the previous week. Things have really been clarified after the results on Saturday.

USC is already in thanks to their amazing win over UCLA in one of the best Pac-12 games in recent memory (that actually meant something). Oregon eliminated Utah by beating them two nights ago. They are in the driver’s seat for the other spot. Washington still has a chance. They must win the Apple Cup and hope Oregon loses the Civil War to go to Santa Clara.

It feels like TCU clinched about a month ago. Kansas State sits in second and just has to beat Kansas in the Sunflower Showdown to make it to JerryWorld. Most years that would be a foregone conclusion but not so this season. If the Wildcats lose, Texas can get there if they beat Baylor on the final weekend.

Clemson vs. North Carolina has been booked for a couple weeks now.

We know what it comes down to. The Game. Ohio State-Michigan. Winner is in, loser has to await their fate for the College Football Playoff. In the West, Iowa, with their horrible offense, is somehow in the lead and has the easiest path to the Big Ten Championship. Beat Nebraska on Black Friday and none of the other games matter in the Big Ten West. If they lose, it opens up a few possibilities. Purdue can win it by then beating Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket. If they also lose, well then God help us all. Illinois should handle Northwestern. Wisconsin and Minnesota play each other. It would give us a four-way tie between Purdue, Iowa, Illinois and the Minny/Wisky winner. Here’s how all this would look in terms of the head-to-head tiebreaker:

Iowa lost to Illinois but beat Purdue, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Purdue beat Minnesota and Illinois and lost to Wisconsin and Iowa.
Illinois beat Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin but lost to Purdue.
Minnesota lost to Purdue, Illinois and Iowa and still have to face Wisconsin.
Wisconsin still has to play Minnesota. They lost to Illinois and Iowa, but beat Purdue.

So, after all that, if there was a four-way tie and Minnesota beat Wisconsin, then Iowa, Purdue and Illinois would all be 2-1 in the head-to-head standings. Then comes divisional records where Iowa and Illinois would be tied at 4-1. The next tiebreaker is record against progressively worse teams in the division. Iowa and Illinois both beat Wisconsin and Nebraska and Northwestern. So now we go to common conference opponents. Meaning the divisional record plus any games they both played against the same teams in the East. The only team both faced was Michigan and both teams lost. This is getting insane. Next up is the cumulative conference record of their non-conference opponents and here is where it’s not really that close. Illinois’ East Division opponents have gone 13-11 in the conference going into the final week. Iowa’s opponents from the East have gone 17-7. So Iowa would get in.

If Wisconsin beats Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois would be tied at 2-1 with Purdue and Wisconsin at 1-2 in head-to-head matchups. I am not going through all the tiebreakers again but Iowa beats Illinois.

So if we get the four-way tie, no matter what, Iowa will go to face the East Division winner. Man, I hope I have that all right.

Well this will be a lot easier than the Big Ten scenarios. Georgia and LSU have already clinched their divisions and will face off in Atlanta. See? Much easier.

I’m already tired. But I will soldier on. Time for the updated bowl projections.

Fiesta Bowl	CFP #2 vs. CFP #3	Ohio State vs. TCU
Peach Bowl	CFP #1 vs. CFP #4	Georgia vs. Michigan

From my previous bowl projections two weeks ago, the Fiesta Bowl has not changed one bit. As for the Peach Bowl, Georgia is still #1. Now I have Michigan in instead of UCLA. UCLA not being in is an easy choice after they lost to USC. I see Michigan losing a close one to Ohio State. That is the first step. I also see LSU and USC losing their conference championship games. Finally, even though I think Clemson beats North Carolina in a relatively close ACC Championship, they don’t have the strength of schedule anymore to leapfrog Michigan for the #4 spot. Many will bitch and complain, much like they have when two SEC teams got in but I think this has a really good shot at happening.

Now on to the New Year’s Six which has got quite interesting over the past couple weeks.

Rose Bowl	Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1	Penn State vs. Oregon
Cotton Bowl	CFP At-large vs. G-5 #1	USC vs. UCF
Sugar Bowl	SEC #1 vs. Big XII #1	Alabama vs. Kansas State
Orange Bowl	ACC #1 vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC	Clemson vs. LSU

OK so a lot more changed here than in the CFP projections. Here we go:

Normally the Big Ten champ would go to the Rose Bowl. With Ohio State and Michigan both in the CFP, the next best team out of the Big Ten would get this spot and that would be Penn State since it’s a long drop to whoever would be next.
I believe Oregon beats USC in the Pac-12 Championship. This boots the Pac-12 out of the CFP and puts the Ducks in the Rose against the Nittany Lions.
USC’s loss won’t drop them far and they should nab the only true at-large spot to go to the Cotton Bowl.
The Trojans opponent will be UCF as I think they win their final regular season game and then the AAC Championship.
Clemson’s victory over North Carolina gives them the ACC’s Orange Bowl spot.
It’s a big drop from TCU to the next team and that won’t change from my last set of bowl projections until bowl selection day. I have Kansas State there and I think they will be juuuuuuust in the Top 20, making them the lowest ranked team in the NY6.
Alabama will get the Sugar Bowl spot because Georgia is in the CFP. It could go to LSU, which would put Bama in the Orange. Honestly, they are fairly interchangeable.

Quite a bit of change there that would leave Tennessee, Washington, Utah and Florida State outside looking in. Very few would argue for those teams to get in so at least it would be, well, less controversy than normal since there’s always an argument (and if there isn’t, ESPN will find one). Alright now on to the rest of the bowl projections.

Citrus Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	Ole Miss vs. Purdue
ReliaQuest Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	South Carolina vs. Iowa
Music City Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	Tennessee vs. Illinois
Gator Bowl	SEC vs. ACC	Arkansas vs. North Carolina
Arizona Bowl	MWC vs. MAC	San Jose State vs. Toledo
Sun Bowl	ACC vs. Pac-12	NC State vs. Oregon State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	Florida vs. Wisconsin
Alamo Bowl	Big XII vs. Pac-12	Texas vs. Washington
Cheez-It Bowl	Big XII vs. ACC	Oklahoma State vs. Florida State
Pinstripe Bowl	Big Ten vs. ACC	Maryland vs. Notre Dame
Texas Bowl	SEC vs. Big XII	Mississippi State vs. Baylor
Holiday Bowl	ACC vs. Pac-12	Louisville vs. UCLA
Liberty Bowl	SEC vs. Big XII	Miami* vs. Oklahoma
Military Bowl	ACC vs. AAC	Wake Forest vs. Cincinnati
Guaranteed Rate Bowl	Big Ten vs. Big XII	Minnesota vs. Kansas
Birmingham Bowl	SEC vs. AAC/ACC/C-USA	Liberty* vs. Duke
First Responder Bowl	2 of AAC, Big XII, C-USA, Sun Belt, MWC	Texas Tech vs. Memphis
Camellia Bowl	Sun Belt vs. MAC/C-USA	South Alabama vs. UTSA
Quick Lane Bowl	Big Ten vs. MAC	UConn* vs. Eastern Michigan
Hawaii Bowl	BYU/AAC/C-USA vs. MWC	BYU vs. Wyoming
Independence Bowl	AAC vs. Army	Tulane vs. Army
Gasparilla Bowl	2 of AAC, ACC, SEC, Pac-12	Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina
Armed Forces Bowl	2 of Big XII, C-USA, AAC	SMU vs. Middle Tennessee
New Orleans Bowl	Sun Belt vs. C-USA	Troy vs. WKU
Boca Raton Bowl	2 of AAC, Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC	Marshall vs. Bowling Green
Idaho Potato Bowl	MWC vs. MAC	San Diego State vs. Ohio
Myrtle Beach Bowl	2 of AAC, Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC	Appalachian State vs. Miami-OH
Frisco Bowl	2 of AAC, MWC, Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC	Fresno State vs. Southern Miss
Las Vegas Bowl	SEC vs. Pac-12	Kentucky vs. Washington State
LendingTree Bowl	Sun Belt vs. MAC/C-USA	Coastal Carolina vs. UTEP
LA Bowl	Pac-12 vs. MWC	Utah vs. Boise State
New Mexico Bowl	MWC vs. AAC/C-USA/MAC	Utah State vs. UAB
Fenway Bowl	ACC vs. AAC	Syracuse vs. Houston
Cure Bowl	2 of AAC, MWC, Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC	Air Force vs. Louisiana
Bahamas Bowl	C-USA vs. MAC	Florida Atlantic vs. Buffalo

There are just enough bowl-eligible teams to fill all the bowl spots; however, the SEC and Big Ten will fall short of fulfilling all their tie-ins. This has to do with more teams in the CFP and NY6 than other conferences. Miami, Liberty and UConn will fill in there (as noted by an asterisk). The ACC actually has more bowl-eligible teams than tie-ins so Miami gets slotted into the Liberty Bowl to face Oklahoma in a game straight out of the 80s. Liberty and UConn technically have to wait until all other bowl-eligible teams get their spots before they can find out where they go. With exactly two bowl games not having two teams, they go there (Liberty to the Birmingham and UConn to the Quick Lane). Finally, despite the fact North Texas won six games, in my scenario they lose the Conference USA Championship and fall to 6-7. If there weren’t enough teams available they would get a waiver to compete. Unfortunately for them there are no spots available to them so they will be home for the holidays.

Hey let’s continue! Time to look at various postseason scenarios. I will not use the AP Poll for some of these. I will use where I think teams will end up going into bowl season (my end-of-season rankings) for the first two.

12-Team College Football Playoff

This is the playoff format that’s coming soon. And if that pesky Rose Bowl can fall in line, it could be as early as 2024. Crazy to think but this is the case. So, if we had that this year, this is what it would look like:

Remember, only conference champions can get a first-round bye in this soon-to-be new format. That’s why Oregon replaces Michigan at #4. Where these teams would play I would leave out other than the first round games which are at the home field of the higher seed. Is it too much? Probably, but it’s college football so I will watch it and hope it works out properly (which no postseason format has been able to do every time but I digress).

6-Team College Football Playoff

This is what I started advocating for even though I had also pushed for just one new playoff team for a while. That dream is gone but here is what it would look like at the end of this season:

Pretty self-explanatory. They would still use bowl games for this. For this year, I think it would be the Cotton Bowl and the Orange Bowl for the first round since the Rose and Sugar, being on January 1st, would not give enough time for the playoffs to be done before the middle of the month. The semis would remain the Fiesta and Peach Bowls.

Poll-and-Bowl

Let’s go back to a simpler time. When the talk of a playoff or a plus-one was just that: talk. The only committees we knew were the bowl committees that went to all sorts of games in November to figure out which teams to select. Now let’s see what that might look like with the better teams in the polls. As I did last year when I did this exercise I have to take some liberty with bowl tie-ins. Also for this I will use current AP Poll listings for variety’s sake:

Rose Bowl (Big Ten Champ vs. Pac-12 Champ): #2 Ohio State vs. #5 USC
Sugar Bowl (SEC Champ vs. Big XII Champ): #1 Georgia vs. #4 TCU
Cotton Bowl (Big XII #2 vs. Pac-12 #2): #15 Kansas State vs. #10 Oregon
Orange Bowl (ACC Champ vs. SEC #2): #7 Clemson vs. #6 LSU
Peach Bowl (ACC #2 vs. at-large): #16 Florida State vs. #3 Michigan
Citrus Bowl (SEC #3 vs. Big Ten #2): #8 Alabama vs. #11 Penn State
Fiesta Bowl (Big XII #3 vs. at-large): #24 Texas vs. #9 Tennessee

I’ll stop there as I have the top ten teams. Maybe there would be more at-large teams involved (say in the Cotton or Orange Bowls) but realistically this is what you would see in and around New Year’s Day. Sure there are some lopsided bowl matchups (see the Fiesta Bowl) but I think it’s that way to an extent anyway. Really this would come down to three games: the Sugar, Rose and Peach Bowls. Georgia wins they are the champ. Only way that doesn’t happen is if UGA barely beats TCU and Ohio State drops the hammer on USC. If the Dawgs lose and tOSU win, they are the champs. If both those teams lose, then Michigan could win it all in the Peach Bowl. If the top three teams lose, it will come down to TCU and USC and might end up being who looked better in the bowl game (or won by a larger margin). It would make things interesting that is for sure. Better? Debatable.

24-Team College Football Playoff

Oh god, why am I doing this to myself. Maybe I’m trying to prove some point. Well, to be fair, I have hammered this point home before. The longer the tournament, the more it becomes a war of attrition. The winning team, in the end, becomes the healthiest one, not necessarily the best one. It’s been seen often in FCS football, even with some of those North Dakota State teams that won it all. So….*deep breath*, let’s look at how at 24-team playoff would work (I’ll just use AP rankings again):

OK that’s a lot. To me this feels like WAY too much. Overkill. When the 24th-ranked team, Texas, has a chance to win the national championship, college football, at least at the FBS level, has lost a lot of what makes it special. Some want to go even farther and I say to that, put down the crackpipe.

Done. No more. I can’t do it. It’s so much information. But there it is. Read it, do with it what you will. Then in about a week’s time we can forget all of it since it will change…in some cases a lot.

Tomorrow, it’s time for the super American Thanksgiving schedule so prepare for a lot more reading but at least this you can use the rest of the week through late Saturday night. Have a great week, everyone!

Crazy Bowl Projections V5.0!

Posted on November 16, 2022 by guelphbossman

This is the fifth edition of this completely ridiculous post. I still wish one year we get close to what I post on these but it would cement that season as the new craziest season ever. Even more so than 2007. And then if it happened I would do anything I could to get to Vegas. Fly, drive, hitchhike, I don’t give a shit. That’s a heater you ride until it ends.

I will not do all the bowl games. What would be the point? To see how WILD it would be to see Eastern Michigan in the, say, Gasparilla Bowl? Ooooooooooh, so crazy. No I’m just looking at the top because the amount of upsets it would take just to get to what I’m suggesting is staggering.

Fiesta Bowl	CFP #1 vs. CFP #4	TCU vs. Illinois
Peach Bowl	CFP #2 vs. CFP #3	Utah vs. Tennessee

Illinois? ILLINOIS? Coached by this guy?

Alright just give me a minute or two here. Let’s go through everything that would get us to this point (since it’s a lot to absorb). Hell, it even took me a bit of time to go back through everything to say “Yep, this is fucked but it seems to work.”

TCU wins out. That’s it. OK, we’re off to a good start. Is it crazy? No, but after last night’s College Football Playoff Rankings Show of Destruction and Doom El Fantastico, it seems like many at ESPN would love if the Horned Frogs would fuck right off already.
Utah also wins out. That would include wins over Oregon, mighty Colorado, and UCLA in the Pac-12 title game. Oregon would also lose the Civil War to Oregon State pulling them right out of contention for anything. USC would lose to UCLA (who also wins their final regular season game to stay near the top of the rankings) and Notre Dame who is on quite the run as the season goes on. Washington loses to Wazzu and that wraps up the Pac-12 picture. OK, not too bad honestly. All this has the potential to happen.
Tennessee. The Vols! I think Rece Davis wants them in so here you go ya Chris Fowler doppelganger. How they get here? Buckle up.
- Georgia loses to Kentucky. Chaos ensues.
- Tennessee beats the holy hell out of South Carolina.
- LSU beats UAB. Big deal.
- Alabama beats Austin Peay. Who cares.
- Ole Miss beats Arkansas. No surprise.
- The following week Georgia loses to GEORGIA TECH? OK then. Couldn’t handle the option I guess.
- Tennessee beats Vanderbilt by 50.
- LSU loses to, oh no, Texas A&M.
- Alabama loses the Iron Bowl to Auburn!
- Ole Miss wins the Egg Bowl over Mississippi State.
- UGA then beats LSU for the SEC Championship.
- All this means, LSU and Georgia would both be outside the Top 10 going into the SEC Championship. Meaning neither could get into the Top 4. Tennessee and Ole Miss would be the only two teams and UT gets in at 11-1 and Ole Miss falls just short.
- Gary Danielson would lose his ever-loving mind over all this.
Oh man we haven’t even got Illinois yet. OK. First of all, the Illini pull off a huge upset and beat Michigan. That is paired with Ohio State being stunned by Maryland (finally getting Mike Locksley and the program their signature Big Ten win). The following week, Michigan wins The Game and Purdue loses to Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket. Illinois calmly beats Northwestern by about 40 and wins the Big Ten West. This means they get a rematch with Big Ten East champ, Michigan. They beat them yet again and leapfrog a few teams, including Michigan, to nab the final CFP spot. Penn State wins out but doesn’t have enough left to climb into the Top 4 so they barely miss out.

You’re probably asking where the ACC is. Well, North Carolina wins out but Clemson loses their final two. The ACC Championship, which was already set, has the Tigers regaining their crown in an upset over the Tar Heels. North Carolina was ranked too low in the previous rankings and needed to completely win out to have any shot at the CFP and they come up just short.

OK so that was ridiculous. It was looking good until we got to the SEC. If some of those results happen….I will be so fucking excited. But some of those game results I mentioned? They aren’t that far-fetched. On we go to the New Year’s Six where things may get weirder.

Rose Bowl	Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1	Penn State vs. UCLA
Cotton Bowl	CFP at-large vs. G-5 #1	Michigan vs. Tulane
Sugar Bowl	SEC #1 vs. Big XII #1	Georgia vs. Texas
Orange Bowl	ACC #1 vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC	Clemson vs. Ole Miss

OK so not totally messed up. Explanation:

As I said above, Ole Miss wins out but they won’t have enough to move up the rankings without being in a conference championship game so they fall just short of the CFP but are easily in the New Year’s Six.
Tulane is not the current G-5 favourite after their loss to UCF. Tulane, though, will win out while UCF gets shocked by Navy. The Green Wave winning their final two includes a victory over Cincinnati. No other conference has a team close enough and Tulane wins the AAC Championship to get the Cotton Bowl bid.
Clemson, despite their problems to end the season, shock North Carolina and win the ACC title which gives them the automatic Orange Bowl spot.
Speaking of teams kind of coming back out of nowhere to win their conference championship, here come the Georgia Bulldogs. Their win over LSU in the SEC Championship means their ranking doesn’t matter. They go to the Sugar Bowl no matter what as they would have been well out of the Top 4 after their late season collapse.
With Illinois getting into the College Football Playoff, the Rose Bowl spot opens up to the best Big Ten team remaining. And that team would be the Penn State Nittany Lions who just kind of hid and waited for all the other teams to collapse around them.
This puts Michigan in the Cotton Bowl as the only true at-large team in the New Year’s Six. Honestly, you could interchange Penn State and the Wolverines and it’s fine either way.
I briefly discussed UCLA above. They slot into the Rose Bowl after losing the Pac-12 Championship which comes after their slight upset of USC.
Finally, the Big XII spot in the Sugar Bowl. I have it going to Texas. In what would mirror what will probably happen, the Big XII would still have the lowest-ranked team in the New Year’s Six as past TCU there are a lot of good teams but no teams that could be considered great. Texas is the best of this bunch, barely beating out Kansas State and Oklahoma State.

So there you go. Yeah it’s pretty insane and makes no sense but was fun to do and if even half this stuff happens it would be quite the roller coaster for college football fans.

Next up is the Bossman Top 25.

#1	Georgia
#2	Ohio State
#3	TCU
#4	Michigan
#5	USC
#6	Tennessee
#7	LSU
#8	Alabama
#9	Utah
#10	Clemson
#11	Penn State
#12	Washington
#13	North Carolina
#14	Oregon
#15	Kansas State
#16	Ole Miss
#17	UCF
#18	UCLA
#19	Notre Dame
#20	Florida State
#21	Oklahoma State
#22	Tulane
#23	NC State
#24	Texas
#25	Cincinnati

My Top 4 is close to everyone else’s Top 4. Michigan may actually be a better team than TCU but sorry, they haven’t shown it and their non-conference schedule was horrific. If they beat Ohio State, then they can lay claim to a better ranking than the Horned Frogs. LSU is sitting there waiting and if they win the SEC Championship, it could cause some major issues at the top. And ESPN’s favourite, Alabama sits at #8. Unfortunately for them, they have no real way to move up except for complete chaos above them. And even then.

Alright next week I will be back with, let’s call them regular bowl projections. Enjoy the rest of your week!

Conference Championship Week TV Schedule…plus one

Posted on December 1, 2021 by guelphbossman

After last year, doing these scheduling posts was a lot easier. Last year, everything was fucked with all the changes to the schedule due to COVID. So when something weird happens (with the schedules, not with the actual football because all of it has been weird this year), I wonder what the reason is for it.

Which brings me to conference championship week. In a normal season, the ten FBS conferences have their conference championship games and that’s it. We also get to hear a lot of chatter that we don’t want about the College Football Playoff. This time around we have an eleventh game. One game was postponed this year. There were issues a few weeks ago in Cal’s program which meant their game against USC could not be played. I, along with many others, thought the game would just be cancelled or a forfeit for USC. Instead, this game was rescheduled for this coming Saturday. Which, going into last week’s games, made a lot of sense. If Cal and USC both won this past Saturday, it would have been a battle for bowl eligibility. Instead both teams lost. Now we have a pointless game between two 4-7 teams at 11 AT NIGHT on FOX Sports One. Why? I mean I love watching college football but this may be too much for me…………………………………………………………OK I’m sure I’ll watch at least a few minutes of it.

Annnnnnnnnnnyway let’s get to the week’s schedule:

Friday

Conference USA Championship: Western Kentucky at UTSA

7:00 PM

CBS Sports Network has decided to put this game on Friday night rather than in a weird spot on Saturday. Honestly. either strategy is good and I’m glad CBSSN thinks of these things, unlike ESPN who feels like they sometimes just use a roulette wheel to figure out what games are on when and on what channel. It’ll be interesting to see the Roadrunners, now no longer undefeated, dealing with Bailey Zappe, a guy who might be tailor-made for the CFL.

Pac-12 Championship: #10 Oregon vs. #17 Utah

8:00 PM

Alright at least the Pac-12 got it right by moving this game to Allegiant Stadium. I still find it odd it starts before 7:00 on a weeknight. I’m guessing with a new commissioner that could change in the future. Anyway, this is a rematch of Utah’s pretty easy victory over the Ducks a couple weeks ago. Neither team is up for the College Football Playoff so this is all for the Rose Bowl spot. The loser is most definitely not in the New Year’s Six so this is huge for both programs.

Saturday Early

Big XII Championship: #9 Baylor vs. #5 Oklahoma State

Noon

Only two early games and this is the big one which will get pretty much all the viewers. If Oklahoma State wins, they are pretty much a lock for the CFP. Baylor won’t have a chance being down at #9 so they are looking at getting that Sugar Bowl spot with a win here. Even if the Bears lose, they might stay high enough in the rankings to go to the Sugar as they would take the best Big XII team after the Pokes.

UPDATE: This game is also appearing on TSN4.

MAC Championship: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois

Noon

Kent State kind of came out of nowhere and had a great finish to their season to nab the MAC East in a season where it felt like no one wanted to win the division. As for the Huskies, let’s give them credit: the MAC West was amazing this year. Every team in the division is bowl-eligible so to win the division before the final weekend is a great turnaround for the program. Thomas Hammock did an incredible job and may be up for another coaching spot since it seems like every fourth FBS team has an opening. If it’s like most MAC title games, this should be an awesome game.

UPDATE #2: As I stated above in the first update, TSN4 is no longer showing the MAC Championship.

Saturday Afternoon

Mountain West Championship: Utah State at #19 San Diego State

3:00 PM

Looks weird to not see Boise State in this game. I like the fact that the Aggies had a great season and Boise is nowhere to be found. Honestly, this game doesn’t mean a whole lot as SDSU cannot get into the New Year’s Six even if they beat USU by 70.

Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian State at #24 Louisiana

3:30 PM

This is the third Sun Belt Championship (since last year’s was cancelled). And, lo and behold, it’s the same two teams that were in the first two. It almost feels like Coastal Carolina was a small blip on the radar and now it’s “back to normal.” I assume that will change with the new members joining. At least this year the game is in Lafayette so we get to see a different venue.

AAC Championship: #21 Houston at #4 Cincinnati

4:00 PM

From what CFP Chairman Gary Barta said, if the Bearcats win this one it’s almost a guarantee they are in the Top 4 come Sunday. That’s the good news. If Drunk Uncle Dana and his Cougar Crew somehow pull this off, it probably puts the Bearcats in the Peach Bowl. It might make it easier for Luke Fickell to take another head coaching job if that happens.

SEC Championship: #1 Georgia vs. #3 Alabama

4:00 PM

Georgia is in no matter what. Saying that, a UGA win more than likely pushes the Tide down into the New Year’s Six. Cincinnati’s worst nightmare would be Bama beating Georgia (and also Oklahoma State and Michigan winning).

SWAC Championship: Prairie View A&M at Jackson State

4:00 PM

Hey, the SWAC Championship. Remember this game? Well, when it’s good, it’s good. I do enjoy some SWAC football. It’s a nice change of pace although they still sometimes get big crowds as well. Many are thinking it will be the first part of the Deion Sanders coronation for making Jackson State the team it is now (I’d say easily the best HBCU football team out there and one of the better FCS squads). I wonder if Sanders will be poached for an FBS job with so many of them out there. I’m sure this won’t come up more than a dozen times during this telecast.

Saturday Primetime

ACC Championship: #15 Pittsburgh vs. #16 Wake Forest

8:00 PM

This is probably the most interesting conference championship game. No Clemson which does breathe a bit of fresh air into this game. It’s pretty cut-and-dry here what the stakes are: the winner will most likely head to the Peach Bowl with the loser going to one of the other bowls with an ACC tie-in.

Big Ten Championship: #2 Michigan vs. #13 Iowa

8:00 PM

Michigan is coming off their biggest win in over a decade. Who knows what Iowa team will show up. The one that looked damn good early on in the season? Or the one that struggled against Purdue? The Wolverines still need to win this one to assure their spot in the College Football Playoff. Iowa is playing for a Rose Bowl berth.

Wanna bet?

My second-last betting section of the season since I don’t do one for the Army-Navy week (I would bet Army if I were you). As is the case in most years, I do not bad with my picks throughout the season but I don’t know how much money I would have made (or lost) and I don’t want to find out. It’s easy when you don’t have a lot of money to bet in the first place. Alright let’s just get to the conference championship picks:

UTSA over Western Kentucky

Oregon over Utah

Baylor over Oklahoma State

Kent State over Northern Illinois

San Diego State over Utah State

Louisiana over Appalachian State

Cincinnati over Houston

Georgia over Alabama

Jackson State over Prairie View A&M

Wake Forest over Pittsburgh

Michigan over Iowa

And a bonus one! USC over California in the Who Fucking Cares Bowl.

Hey, we’re nearing the end of this crazy season! Will we finally see Cincinnati break through for the Group of Five? Will Michigan exorcise the demons of the past, well, quite a few years and get into the Top 4? And will Alabama win the SEC Championship and put a wrench in a lot of teams’ possibilities? It should be a wild weekend and I am looking forward to it.

Enjoy the games everyone and have a great hump day!

OK this is slightly different – Week 12 College Football TV Schedule

Posted on November 17, 2021 by guelphbossman

I talk about the coaching carousel a lot. Maybe a bit too much. So I have seen a lot of different stories of coaches getting fired and the methods and back stories of how it came to be. I may not have seen anything like this, though.

Butch Davis has decided he is done at Florida International. He was 23-21 coming into this season with FIU but the bottom fell out for the team and they have gone 1-9 so far in 2021. No one knows yet if he will finish out the season with the team. None of this is all that odd. What is a bit different is Davis’ assertion that the school’s administration is sabotaging the football program and that is why he wants out. Not saying other coaches haven’t thought this but for a coach to actually verbalize it says a lot about what is going on down there. Here are a few of the things that have happened:

FIU posted the head coaching position online with the American Football Coaches Association…last month. Good god, not a good start.
The school is using old uniforms and old equipment and won’t put any money in to purchase anything new. Cheap bastards.
The school has refused to offer multi-year contracts to any of Davis’ assistants. I can kind of understand this considering how poorly the team has performed.
The school also did not allow any of the coaches to go out and recruit the past two years. Part of this is due to COVID-19 concerns but the bigger issue is financial reasons.

It sounds like Davis is probably correct here. And if the school can’t afford to play football at the FBS level, drop to FCS. There are a few schools at the top level that lose money almost every year and justify doing it as a recruiting tool not just to get athletes to come to the school, but students, in general. That may work at a school like Alabama but less so at a school like FIU. This and the fact that the Panthers are in Conference USA which now has set themselves up as easily the worst FBS conference all point to potential disaster in the years to come. Something to keep an eye on.

Anyway, let’s get to more pertinent matters, that being the upcoming schedule!

Wednesday

		US	Canada
Northern Illinois at Buffalo	7:00 PM
Central Michigan at Ball State	7:00 PM

MACtion! Hey it’s weekday football. And one of the games is on TSN! This is good. Hopefully at least one of these games is a nailbiter.

Thursday

		US	Canada
Louisville at Duke	7:30 PM

So technically this is a college football game. The only other football on this night is a pretty good New England Patriots team facing a woeful Atlanta Falcons team. So your options are limited.

Friday

		US	Canada
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech	8:00 PM
Memphis at #24 Houston	9:00 PM
#19 San Diego State at UNLV	11:30 PM

Nothing huge here although SDSU and Houston need wins here. We have a different kind of test game tonight: the weeknight Vegas Test. A lot like Hawaii Test games, this game won’t end until well into the morning. I will test my resolve and try to watch this thing but I have this funny feeling it will be over at some point in the third quarter, allowing me (and other viewers) at least some chance at sleep.

Saturday Early

		US	Canada
#7 Michigan State at #4 Ohio State	Noon
Florida State at Boston College	Noon
Rutgers at Penn State	Noon
Purdue vs. Northwestern (in Chicago)	Noon
UMass at Army	Noon
#10 Wake Forest at Clemson	Noon
Texas at West Virginia	Noon
Harvard at Yale	Noon
Iowa State at #13 Oklahoma	Noon
Wofford at North Carolina	Noon
New Mexico State at Kentucky	Noon

I’m honestly perplexed as to why MSU-tOSU did not get the primetime treatment. I guess it’s so we get to possibly see Kirk Herbstreit sprint to the booth after finishing College Gameday. We also get Oklahoma trying to avoid an upset at the hands of a team they’ve struggled with in the recent past, Iowa State. There are a lot of other games in the early timeslot but not a ton of must-watch material. Also, New Mexico State does not get to be on TSN again.

Saturday Afternoon

		US	Canada
Georgia Tech at #8 Notre Dame	2:30 PM
Nebraska at #15 Wisconsin	3:30 PM
#6 Michigan at Maryland	3:30 PM
Minnesota at Indiana	3:30 PM
#21 Arkansas at #2 Alabama	3:30 PM
East Carolina at Navy	3:30 PM
SMU at #5 Cincinnati	3:30 PM
Virginia at #18 Pittsburgh	3:30 PM
Syracuse at #20 NC State	4:00 PM
Louisiana at Liberty	4:00 PM
UCLA at USC	4:00 PM
Florida at Missouri	4:00 PM

Nothing massive here although Cincinnati may have their toughest conference test before they face Houston in the AAC Championship. The de facto ACC Coastal Championship occurs today as well as Michigan trying to avoid the speed bump as they travel to College Park. I don’t get why the Big Ten Network puts two games on simultaneously and then doesn’t have anything in the primetime slot. Not a huge deal up here but I am sure it’s a big deal in the States where some fans will miss their team’s game because BTN can’t get their act together.

Saturday Primetime

		US	Canada
Auburn at South Carolina	7:00 PM
#3 Oregon at #23 Utah	7:30 PM
Virginia Tech at Miami	7:30 PM
South Alabama at Tennessee	7:30 PM
Vanderbilt at #12 Ole Miss	7:30 PM
Wyoming at Utah State	8:00 PM
#9 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech	8:00 PM

A big Pac-12 matchup highlights the primetime timeslot. Utah could cause yet another disruption of the Top 4 in what will probably end up being a preview of the Pac-12 Championship. CBS Sports Network is going with an odd 8:00 start time for the Mountain West game and there’s no real reason for it. My only guess on this is that because they do not have a late night game that they put a highlights show on at 7:00 to hopefully keep people watching through that time until this game begins. This feels more like a lack of organization because I am sure they could have put this game on late night and stuck a MAC or Conference USA game in here and just didn’t for….I don’t know.

Saturday Late Night

		US	Canada
ULM at LSU	9:00 PM
Arizona State at Oregon State	10:30 PM

Another weird choice here for start time but at least this has a reason. ESPN2 has the ULM-LSU game starting at 9:00 because there are preliminary fights before a boxing pay-per-view card starting at 7:00. The only game on here in a true late night spot is a very important one for teams needing a win and some help to win their division.

Games to set your eyeballs on

Michigan State at Ohio State (Noon, ABC/TSN3) – This is the Game of the Week and none of the other games are really that close. I would consider it a possible Game of the Year candidate because of the high stakes. Michigan State could do what no one thought they could do and that is unseat Ohio State at the top of the Big Ten East ladder. A Sparty win puts them in the driver’s seat with wins over both tOSU and Michigan. The loser of this is probably still a lock for the New Year’s Six though. As I said above, I am still confused as to why this didn’t get the ABC primetime slot but I have a feeling it has to do with contracted games and the Pac-12 may not have quite got to where they should be. For this reason ESPN/ABC took the next game on this list instead of this one knowing that the final week of the season would have a better selection to choose from and they wouldn’t be forced to go with one conference over another.

Oregon at Utah (7:30, ABC) – As much as the Pac-12 tends to be ignored on the East Coast, I can see a lot of eyeballs descending on this one. As mentioned above, it is probably a preview of the Pac-12 title match. The stakes are high, especially for the Ducks after their inexplicable loss to Stanford earlier this season. The Utes could cause a lot of issues for the Pac-12 and put themselves in the Top 15 going into the final week of the regular season with a win. Realistically, the conference championship game is much more important than this one but the path there for both teams will dictate where they stand in terms of what bowl destination they will have. Either way, at least we know the winner here clinches their spot in Santa Clara and at least will play for the Rose Bowl spot.

SMU at Cincinnati (3:30, specialty pack) – So what happens if the Bearcats lose here? A win here leaves them at probably no lower than #5 in the CFP rankings. But a loss…well then we have to see how far they fall. The next best Group of Five team is San Diego State and they sit at #19 and won’t surpass Cincy even if they win and the Bearcats lose. Yes, Luke Fickell has his sights set much higher than the NY6. This game will show whether they can do what they need to do to capture the attention of The Committee: by blowing the doors off the Mustangs.

Wake Forest at Clemson (Noon, specialty pack) – Here’s a huge test for Wake. Win this game and they clinch the ACC Atlantic and end the reign of Clemson at the top. Would it be the beginning of the end of Dave Clawson in Winston-Salem? He has done another masterful job of coaching and many teams will be looking his way with all the openings needing to be filled in the off-season. Also, how much higher do the Deacs rise in the poll with a win here? I can’t see them climbing higher than #8 but there still would be one more regular season week remaining, plus conference championships and this season has taught me that you can’t really predict anything week-to-week.

Virginia at Pittsburgh (3:30, specialty pack) – As for the other side of the ACC ledger, this is pretty much the game for the ACC Coastal division title. I’m sure Wake Forest hopes Pitt wins because the better the Panthers are, the better their schedule looks. Virginia doesn’t automatically clinch the division with a win but they put themselves in the catbird seat if they are triumphant here going into the Commonwealth Cup game with the now Justin Fuente-less Virginia Tech Hokies.

Honourable mention: Arkansas at Alabama (3:30, CBS); UAB at UTSA (3:30, ESPN+); Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (8:00, FOX)

Wanna bet?

My picks were not good last week. I don’t even want to talk about it. So now I have to hope that these picks are better for…some reason. I don’t know why. Note: do not use these picks for actual gambling purposes:

Alabama over Arkansas

Clemson over Wake Forest (minor upset)

Pittsburgh over Virginia

UTSA over UAB

Cincinnati over SMU

Oklahoma State over Texas Tech

Ohio State over Michigan State

Utah over Oregon (upset!)

Ball State over Central Michigan

Tennessee over South Alabama

San Diego State over UNLV

I’m gearing myself up. Tonight. Tomorrow night. Friday night. Saturday all day. Then NFL Sunday all day. Then NFL Monday night. My god. I love it.

NFL schedule tomorrow as per usual. Enjoy the games everyone!

Bossman Top 25 and FULL! Bowl projections after Week 10’s games

Posted on November 8, 2021 by guelphbossman

As per usual, when the dance card looks just OK, look out because it’s going to be fucking insane. And that it was. Sam Hartman accounted for seven touchdowns and the Demon Deacons lost, destroying the ACC’s chance at anything. Bama barely outlasted LSU and probably should have lost. The Purdue SPOILERmakers (see what I did there…OK I stole it from Twitter) beat another Top 5 Big Ten team. Oregon looked merely average against a not-so-good Washington team. Cincinnati tried their best to gack away their game against Tulsa and Tulsa failed TWICE inside the Bearcat 2 late. Just an absolutely absurd day in college football which has become the norm this season. I will say it does make things exciting. And there are still three weeks left of the regular season and only four undefeated teams. We are in for a barnburner of a month of football.

So after that fun weekend, it’s time for another edition of the Bossman Top 25 which I am sure won’t resemble the CFP Poll at all.

#1	Georgia
#2	Cincinnati
#3	Ohio State
#4	Alabama
#5	Oregon
#6	Oklahoma
#7	Notre Dame
#8	Texas A&M
#9	Michigan State
#10	Michigan
#11	Oklahoma State
#12	Ole Miss
#13	BYU
#14	UTSA
#15	Auburn
#16	Wake Forest
#17	Iowa
#18	Houston
#19	Coastal Carolina
#20	Baylor
#21	Penn State
#22	NC State
#23	Wisconsin
#24	Pittsburgh
#25	Louisiana

Yes I have Texas A&M at #8 ahead of both Michigan schools. You have to give them a ton of credit for the victory over Alabama and they still have an outside shot at the College Football Playoff if they win out and Bama messes up. UTSA, oh yeah, #14 baby! I will be very interested to see what happens if Cincinnati loses between now and the end of the regular season and how that would affect the Roadrunners. I still believe Clemson will catch Wake Forest for the ACC Atlantic title and get back to the ACC Championship game but they aren’t good enough yet to be ranked. Should I have dropped Michigan State farther? I won’t because I haven’t ranked Purdue (they are just on the outside looking in). What this has done, though, is put tOSU back in the driver’s seat (ugh) in the Big Ten East. I’m not anti-Buckeyes but I kind of get sick of the same damn team winning a division/conference every season.

Look, I’ll be honest here: bowl projections are normally a bit early when they come just in November. This year could be much worse so take most of these with a grain of salt…other than Georgia at #1. Let’s begin with these damn things.

Orange Bowl	CFP Poll #1 vs. CFP Poll #4	Georgia vs. Cincinnati
Cotton Bowl	CFP Poll #2 vs. CFP Poll #3	Oklahoma vs. Ohio State

No changes from last week so don’t need much explaining:

Cincy runs the table the rest of the way and dominates. Enough happens around them that they stay in the #4 spot (although Notre Dame looking good the rest of the way also helps).
Georgia wins out and beats Bama (which also helps Cincinnati) to take the SEC title and be the #1 seed.
Oklahoma runs the table as well. They finish undefeated and beat Oklahoma State twice in a row which finally gives them the respect they are lacking right now in the polls.
Ohio State has a tough schedule the rest of the way but winning out would be enough to slot them in the #3 slot (if not #2). The one thing that would keep them at #3 would be if they struggle against Michigan State or Michigan or Wisconsin (who I assume they will play in the Big Ten Championship).

So yeah nothing earth-shattering yet. Now let’s get to the next part of the equation.

Sugar Bowl	SEC #1 vs. Big XII #1	Alabama vs Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl	Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1	Michigan State vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl	CFP At-Large vs. CFP At-Large/G-5 #1	Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh
Peach Bowl	CFP At-Large vs. CFP At-Large/G-5 #1	Iowa vs. Wake Forest

Yes there are some changes in my New Year’s Six projections. Let me explain:

Alabama will lose to Georgia to drop out of the Top 4 and head to the Sugar Bowl. I do believe The Committee put the Tide at #2 because they really do want two SEC teams in the CFP and this is how it gets done. I still don’t think it will be enough though and they will be on the outside looking in which I’m sure will make Nick Saban furious.
Notre Dame will win their remaining games and they will easily be in the NY6. The only question is if more happens to the teams above them can they somehow get into the Top 4.
Oklahoma State will lose Bedlam and then lose again at JerryWorld. Lucky for them the two losses to now CFP-bound Oklahoma don’t look too bad and they are the best of the rest of a mediocre bunch to snag the Big XII’s spot in the Sugar Bowl.
Michigan State won’t even win their division. This is part of the reason they will “escape” the regular season with only two losses and be ranked high enough to be the Big Ten’s representative in the Rose Bowl, thanks to the Buckeyes being in the Top 4.
After Oregon’s win over Washington, I have the Ducks beating Utah to be the Pac-12 representative in the Rose Bowl. However, I believe the Ducks will lose their regular season matchup with the Utes before coming back a couple weeks later to win in the rematch.
Pittsburgh is going to win the ACC Championship over Clemson (which I mentioned above). I would say it’s shitty that the ACC champ gets in to the NY6 automatically but Pitt will be ranked probably around #10 or #11. That’s how crazy this season has been.
Wake Forest won’t fall too far and will probably start ascending even with another loss or two, enough to sneak into the Peach Bowl.
Iowa will be the best of the rest of the teams. The Committee will not put another Group of Five team in so forget UTSA or Houston getting their chance. That isn’t happening.
I have UTSA and Houston just missing out as I mentioned above. Also, a bunch of teams, including Auburn, Texas A&M, Michigan, Ole Miss and Wisconsin will be going to good bowl games but not New Year’s Six ones.

It’s already shaping up to be a mess. Let’s look at my first stab at the rest of the bowl projections now.

Texas Bowl	SEC vs. Big XII	Auburn vs. Texas
Citrus Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	Ole Miss vs. Wisconsin
Outback Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	Kentucky vs. Penn State
Arizona Bowl	MWC vs. MAC	Nevada vs. Northern Illinois
Sun Bowl	ACC vs. Pac-12	Virginia vs. Utah
Gator Bowl	SEC vs. ACC	Texas A&M vs. Clemson
Las Vegas Bowl	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Minnesota vs. UCLA
Music City Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	Tennessee vs. Michigan
Duke’s Mayo Bowl	SEC vs. ACC	Florida vs. NC State
Alamo Bowl	Big XII vs. Pac-12	Baylor vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Bowl	Big XII vs. ACC	Kansas State vs. Miami
Pinstripe Bowl	Big Ten vs. ACC	Purdue vs. Boston College
Fenway Bowl	ACC/C-USA vs. American	Syracuse vs. Houston
Guaranteed Rate Bowl	Big Ten vs. Big XII	Rutgers* vs. Iowa State
Holiday Bowl	ACC vs. Pac-12	North Carolina vs. Washington State
Liberty Bowl	SEC vs. Big XII	Arkansas vs. TCU*
First Responder Bowl	2 from Big XII, ACC, Pac-12, American	Washington vs. Texas Tech*
Birmingham Bowl	SEC vs. American	LSU vs. UCF
Military Bowl	ACC vs. American	Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Quick Lane Bowl	Big Ten vs. MAC	Maryland* vs. Ball State
Camellia Bowl	Sun Belt/C-USA vs. MAC	Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo
Hawaii Bowl	American vs. MWC	SMU vs. Air Force
Gasparilla Bowl	2 from SEC, ACC, Pac-12, American	Mississippi State vs. Louisville*
Armed Forces Bowl	2 from Big XII, Pac-12, C-USA, Army	Army vs. UTEP
Frisco Bowl	2 from Group of Five	Utah State vs. Appalachian State
Idaho Potato Bowl	MWC vs. MAC	Boise State vs. Central Michigan
Myrtle Beach Bowl	American/MAC/G-5 vs. Sun Belt	Kent State vs. Coastal Carolina
New Orleans Bowl	Sun Belt vs. C-USA	Louisiana vs. Marshall
LA Bowl	Pac-12 vs. MWC	USC vs. San Diego State
LendingTree Bowl	Sun Belt vs. MAC	Georgia State* vs. Western Michigan
Independence Bowl	BYU vs. C-USA	BYU vs. UTSA
New Mexico Bowl	MWC vs. C-USA	San Jose State vs. UAB
Boca Raton Bowl	2 from Group of Five	Liberty vs. Fresno State
Cure Bowl	2 from Group of Five	Wyoming vs. East Carolina*
Bahamas Bowl	C-USA vs. MAC	Florida Atlantic vs. Buffalo

A few notes on this:

Just a reminder that teams with an asterisk (*) beside them meant they were 5-7 during the regular season.
BYU is basically already locked into the Independence Bowl unless all hell breaks loose from the teams ranked above them. Army will probably end up at the Armed Forces Bowl even though they can go to any of the bowls with a Group of Five tie-in. Liberty can also slot in to the three bowls with Group of Five tie-ins but may also fill in if a conference doesn’t fulfill all their tie-ins. That all depends on if a bowl committee decides to pick them over a 5-7 team.
Right now, the MAC East is a disaster. I think Kent State will win the division but lose the conference championship game. This would mean a 6-7 record and the need for a waiver from the NCAA to go to a bowl game. They’ll get it just because there won’t be enough bowl-eligible teams available.

For now that’s it. It’s a start. Next bowl projection post will be the annual CHAOS POST. I honestly don’t know how much more chaotic I can make it than it actually is but I will try.

More MACtion Tuesday nights! Tomorrow night will see Akron face Western Michigan, Buffalo head to Oxford to face Miami-OH, and Eastern Michigan hosting surprisingly bad Ohio. Akron-WMU is on CBSSN and the other two games are on the specialty pack. Football every day, BAYBEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

Anyway, I will be back with the college football schedule on Wednesday since we have MACtion Wednesdays as well! NFL schedule, as normal, on Thursday. Have a great week everyone.

Hello! Hello? HELLO! Don’t forget about us! Don’t forget about Conference USA. Please.

Posted on August 1, 2021 by guelphbossman

conference usa map

Good lord look at that map. Look I get it. Most conferences have ridiculous footprints now. Can’t count the Mountain West in there because it’s not fair. Hawaii? Nah. And yes the American Conference’s footprint is ridiculous. But for a conference this low on the totem pole? It’s insane. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: Conference USA and the Sun Belt need to do some swaps to become more regionalized. C-USA can take the Eastern teams and the Sun Belt can take the Western teams. Or North and South. I really do not give a shit. But sorry, no one is getting hyped for a Rice-Old Dominion game. And distance (and lack of history) does that. Be smart. Especially, with…ugh…realignment (almost getting sick of that word now) possibly going off the rails for the next year or three. It’s more so for this conference’s benefit than the Sun Belt because hey, who doesn’t love the Sun Belt?

Maybe, just maybe, this could help with TV contracts as well. Their deals suck. The best they have is the 14 games that air on CBS Sports Network. No other conference has it this bad. I get it: it sounds like I pick on them all the time. Go ahead and say that. I don’t care. But either they have to be smart about their future or pray that one of their teams gets into the New Year’s Six before the expanded playoff begins. Anyway, let’s get into my predictions for the standings this year so I can cool off followed by some Geography Lessons:

	Conference		Overall
East	W	L	W	L
Florida Atlantic	7	1	9	3
Marshall	7	1	9	3
FIU	3	5	5	7
Middle Tennessee	3	5	4	8
Charlotte	2	6	3	9
Western Kentucky	2	6	3	9
Old Dominion	1	7	2	10
West
UTSA	8	0	10	2
UAB	6	2	9	3
Louisiana Tech	5	3	6	6
Southern Miss	4	4	6	6
Rice	2	6	4	8
UTEP	2	6	4	8
North Texas	2	6	3	9

Geography Lessons

I will say it again: this is how I would break up the schools between C-USA and the Fun Belt (if that’s what they wanted to do at this point):
- C-USA: Troy, South Alabama, Arkansas State, Southern Miss, ULM, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana, Rice, North Texas, UTSA, UTEP, Texas State
- Fun Belt: Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Charlotte, Marshall, Georgia State, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Georgia Southern, Florida Atlantic, FIU, UAB
- If both new conferences are smart they also bring up another team or two from FCS. James Madison and Sam Houston State are the ones I would target right off the hop.
- This way, it’s regional, rivalries can really blossom (like the Louisiana schools being all together), and you keep travel costs down while you hopefully move into a more lucrative TV contract down the road. Win-win-win-win in my opinion. But hey, I’m just a guy.
Back to this conference only, the East should again come down to FAU and the Herd. With the Owls winning the head-to-head matchup, they should get to the conference championship meaning Willie Taggart will eventually move up the chain again at a more prominent role at a bigger school.
In the West, things will be a lot less ridiculous than it has been the previous few years. It’s UTSA’s time. The Roadrunners have been slowly building to this spot and it shouldn’t be a surprise since out of all the newer FBS squads, this is one of the ones that was destined to do well and create a winning football culture (alongside teams like Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, UAB and FAU). This division shouldn’t be close.
Old Dominion is going to have a ROUGH return to football. Playing for the first time since 2019, it will be a long season for the Monarchs. Charlotte, WKU and the Mean Green don’t have that excuse. No, they won’t be as bad as ODU. But they won’t be good and bowl games are not in their immediate future.
As for the conference championship game, it’s probably going to be a good, close game. I have UTSA winning their first conference title and going to….well, nowhere since the conference champ isn’t guaranteed to go to a specific bowl game. Ridiculous.
Only six bowl-eligible teams for the conference. And now with these new G-5 bowl tie-ins (instead of a single conference, three bowl games just have general Group of Five tie-ins meaning any G-5 conference can send a team there), there’s less worry about filling all the bowl tie-ins. Smart idea.

I’m starting to get a bit excited. It’s August! It is seriously just around the corner now! Next up, I put it all together and let you know who I predict to go to each bowl game. Should be fun and not have any controversy whatsoever. Under four weeks now. 27 days. You can feel it.

The CFL begins in four short days with the Ti-Cats and Blue Bombers opening the new, shortened season. That same night, the NFL has their Hall of Fame game between the Cowboys and Steelers. Football season is almost back! Have a great rest of your Civic Holiday long weekend if you get a long weekend…I don’t.

It’s pronounced SHONTZ. SHONTZ.

Posted on July 24, 2021 by guelphbossman

Coastal-Carolina-Chanticleers_BIG

SHON-TUH-CLEERZ. Say it with me. SHON-TUH-CLEERZ. Repeat it. Learn it.

Learn it because this could end up being the next big thing in underdog college football. Coastal Carolina was amazing last year and came within a hair of running the table even through bowl season. Add Louisiana and Appalachian State and you have a Top 3 that rivals any Group of Five conference. Really, other than Texas State, this conference is full of teams that have had at least one successful season over the past decade. And the Bobcats are expected to be not too bad.

Let’s get to those Fun Belt conference predictions! I will follow that with some Sun Belt Midweek Musings and Such:

	Conference		Overall
East	W	L	W	L
Coastal Carolina	8	0	12	0
Appalachian State	6	2	9	3
Georgia State	3	5	4	8
Troy	3	5	4	8
Georgia Southern	2	6	3	9
West
Louisiana	8	0	10	2
Texas State	4	4	6	6
South Alabama	2	6	4	8
ULM	2	6	2	10
Arkansas State	2	6	3	9

Sun Belt Midweek Musings and Such

If there’s ever a conference that needs to go back to no divisions, it’s this one. The Sun Belt has been lucky that the first couple of years of the conference championship the best two teams have been in opposite divisions. But at some point that won’t happen and it might cause an undefeated team to miss out on a College Football Playoff spot in the future. So Sun Belt? Don’t be stupid. Abolish divisions. Make the right move.
The West Division this year…well, it may be a cakewalk. Louisiana might clinch the division at the beginning of November. They are that far in front of everyone else. The only team that looks like they’d be relatively close is, somehow, Texas State! Jake Spavital, I believe, will get the Bobcats into bowl season for the first time ever. And yes, Arkansas State will drop off that much from last season. Doesn’t help they have a tough schedule.
The East is at least a bit more competitive. Coastal is still the team to beat and should be just as good, if not better, than last year’s breakout season. Appalachian State will try to keep things close and they luckily get their game against the Chanticleers at home in mid-October. Win that and they have the inside step to the division title. The rest of teams are OK but will struggle to make a bowl game.
The Sun Belt Championship we should have got last year should happen again. It could low-key be the best conference championship game this season. Should be an awesome one but I don’t think the Chants are going to be denied the Sun Belt championship belt this time around.
At this point, only four teams would be bowl-eligible. Yikes! But hey, Texas State would be going to a bowl game with my predictions. Start the parade in San Marcos!
Is this the year? Does the Sun Belt finally have a representative in the New Year’s Six? I’m…not going to tell you until the bowl predictions. I think it will be closer than people want to believe this season.

Let’s keep the conference prediction train going! Next up will be the soon-to-be-expanding SEC! Have a great weekend everyone! Oh and remember…35 days. Exactly five weeks.

That was LSU’s Shoeper Bowl! – Week 15 College Football Recap

Posted on December 14, 2020 by guelphbossman

This is a new one. Gators’ Marco Wilson tackled Kole Taylor short of the first down marker late in the fourth quarter in Florida’s game against LSU. Then he got up with Taylor’s shoe in his hand and, in the words of the referee, threw it 20 yards downfield. This meant he got a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty which kept LSU going and lead to Cade York’s insane 57-yard field goal into the fog at The Swamp to win the game. This could end up costing Florida even a New Year’s Six spot (as their College Football Playoff chances are gone). Horrible. And stupid. You couldn’t script this to be more ridiculous.

As per tradition, when I use the Footballgasm template, I must complete the week by doing the recap in the same manner. Let’s go!

Thursday

Southern Miss 45 Florida Atlantic 31

6:30 PM

This was a nice ending to a horrible season in Hattiesburg for the Golden Eagles. Now they can hopefully start fresh with new coach Will Hall. And to find out that even if FAU won, they wouldn’t have gone to the conference championship game was a big letdown. Oh well. Decent start to the week.

Friday

Arizona State 70 Arizona 7

7:30 PM

The Territorial Cup goes to the Sun Devils in one of the biggest beatdowns in Pac-12 history. I was definitely one who thought Arizona’s hire of Kevin Sumlin a few years back was a coup. Yeah now we know that it was his great quarterbacks at Houston and Texas A&M that really helped him along. Paging Brent Brennan!

San Jose State 30 Nevada 20

10:00 PM

OK this game was being played between the Spartans and the Wolf Pack in Las Vegas at the field being used by the New Mexico Lobos. Got it? Anyway, the Spartans win puts them in the Mountain West Championship and also puts Boise State in as well. This has been an amazing season for SJSU which means what I said above may happen…again.

Saturday Early

Penn State 39 Michigan State 24

Noon

This was actually a pretty good game into the fourth quarter and the Nittany Lions pulled away to win their first home game of the season (if you can believe that). James Franklin is going to be on quite the hot seat going into 2021 as this has to be considered nothing short of a disappointment for this team, despite what 2020 brought.

Rutgers 27 Maryland 24

Noon

Meaningless game won by Rutgers. Well maybe not meaningless to the Scarlet Knights and especially Greg Schiano. The hiring of Schiano may make Rutgers look very smart (and Tennessee very stupid for deciding not to hire him).

Northwestern 28 Illinois 10

Noon

Northwestern, already clinching the Big Ten West, put a beatdown on the Illini. And guess what happened yesterday? Lovie Smith was finally shitcanned. Oh wait, he agreed to part ways with the team. Whatever. Just a few years too late in my humble opinion.

Alabama 52 Arkansas 3

Noon

Not surprising that the Tide won. Now we await to see what devastation they will wreak on Florida in the SEC Championship. I don’t think it will be very pretty. I’ve said it already but CBS may regret putting that game in primetime.

Utah 38 Colorado 21

Noon

The Buffs shouldn’t have had problems with the Utah offense but they did. Their loss made things super easy for the Pac-12 as now they wouldn’t be undefeated along with USC. At least we got to see some FOOTBAW WEATHER in Boulder for this one.

Georgia 49 Missouri 14

Noon

Speaking of games that weren’t close, here’s a great example. Many people, myself included, thought it would be though. For a while it looked like UGA was what everyone thought they were: a good team not deserving of a New Year’s Six spot. It was tied at 14 late in the second quarter. 35 unanswered points later, the Dawgs proved that maybe they should be put in an important bowl game.

Minnesota 24 Nebraska 17

Noon

Minnesota wins this one as they hold on to beat the Huskers. Is there anyone that can turn this program around? Not saying Scott Frost had all the pieces when he arrived but man this has been an unbridled disaster in Lincoln. Definite hot seat material for next season.

Saturday Afternoon

Buffalo 56 Akron 7

2:30 PM

Disappointing. I was hoping for Jaret Patterson to score ten touchdowns.

Army 15 Navy 0

3:00 PM

I wonder if a lot of people forgot this game was even on. Sad for a game with this kind of history but 2020 has wreaked havoc on college football (along with damn near everything else). Unfortunately the game was not good at all which meant few people would even watch to the end to see Army sing second.

North Carolina 62 Miami 26

3:30 PM

Not even close this one. The Heels really wanted this one and it showed. I think it’s about time I believe that Miami is not a College Football Playoff team under Manny Diaz. Or maybe Mack Brown is still pissed about that game against BYU years ago when Diaz was his defensive coordinator. Either way.

Oklahoma State 42 Baylor 3

3:30 PM

What a way to finish a season. Even without Chuba Hubbard, who has declared for the NFL Draft, the Fighting Mullets blew the doors of Baylor in this one. This was a rough season as the Pokes never got respect all season and could very well end up in the Top 15 at the end of it all. Probably still behind Oklahoma though which will irk all their fans but hey, can’t win em all.

Iowa 28 Wisconsin 7

3:30 PM

Slow start but the Hawkeyes pulled away in the second half to beat the Badgers and set up…an almost useless game next week. I know the Big Ten doesn’t want to overshadow the conference championship game but Iowa-Indiana would have been a huge matchup with big NY6 implications. Instead, they fucked up Champions Week. Way to go, guys.

Memphis 30 Houston 27

3:45 PM

Well the Tigers won which really meant nothing since both teams are going bowling. Now the question is will Ryan Silverfield be around next season in Memphis. He is a dark horse candidate for a couple of jobs so it will be interesting to see if he ends up heading elsewhere like his predecessors, Mike Norvell and Justin Fuente, did. As for Dana Holgorsen, he has already downed four cans of Red Bull by the time you got to this point in this post.

Tennessee 42 Vanderbilt 17

4:00 PM

Tennessee won. Sarah Fuller kicked two extra points and made many men mad. That’s about all I can say about the battle for state supremacy (no offense, Middle Tennessee).

Saturday Primetime & Late Night

Boise State 17 Wyoming 9

6:00 PM

A really slow start here by both teams and it never really got going after that. Blame all the snow that fell in Laramie as it made for a sloppy game. Honestly, they should have a bowl game there. That would be fun to watch. Probably horrible for the players and the coaching staffs though. Anyway, this meant nothing after San Jose State’s win the previous night but good to see Boise finish off the regular season with a win as they try to win yet another Mountain West conference championship.

LSU 37 Florida 34

7:00 PM

Hey at least it was a fun, close game right? Forget the Shoe Throw of Doom that I mentioned at the beginning. Florida did not look like a Top 10 team here at all. Either that or LSU looked better than their record states. Both are probably correct. The Gators needed this game and couldn’t pull away from the Tigers. Their punishment will probably be the Outback Bowl or Citrus Bowl or some close-by bowl game.

TCU 52 Louisiana Tech 10

7:00 PM

Well, at least TCU was able to get their non-conference game in.

Auburn 24 Mississippi State 10

7:30 PM

Didn’t matter. Wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. And now Gus Malzahn has finally, mercifully, been fired. He is now almost $22 million richer because of it. Ain’t college football a great sport?

USC 43 UCLA 38

7:30 PM

This ended up being one of the best finishes of the season. The Trojans, in my opinion, will not get into the CFP (fuck you ESPN Playoff Predictor). The Bruins, I have to say, have really improved (FINALLY) under Chiop Kelly. Took long enough. UCLA scored late in this one to take the three point lead and it looked like the Pac-12 was completely ruined (as opposed to mostly ruined which they are at this point). Instead, the men of Troy march down the field quickly and score a touchdown to win the game. And to the chagrin of some USC fans, I have a feeling Clay Helton will get a contract extension in the offseason.

BYU 28 San Diego State 14

10:00 PM

Nice to see the Cougars finish with ten wins since their original schedule was completely obliterated. People still like to underestimate BYU (or downright hate them) but Kalani Sitake has shown that this program is still one to watch, year in and year out. Still won’t get them a New Year’s Six spot but still has to be considered a successful season.

New Mexico 49 Fresno State 39

10:30 PM

New Mexico is quietly turning things around while they are banished to Vegas. Danny Gonzales has done a masterful job starting this turnaround. Don’t be surprised if they are over .500 next season and, perhaps, back to the Rocky Long days of prosperity.

Stanford 27 Oregon State 24

10:00 PM

This was actually a great Pac-12 After Dark game (as is tradition). Back-and-forth throughout the entire game and it meant that you had to continue to watch well into the night. Jet Toner (great name for, well, anything) hit the game-winning field goal with a little less than two minutes left. Stanford, somehow, ended up 3-2 going into whatever the Pac-12 is calling the final week of the season. That feels weird considering how they have played the past almost-two seasons.

Normally the next week is conference championship week ONLY. But man this has been such a crazy year that there are a bunch of games also scheduled. So this could end up being a bit more interesting than usual when it comes to this week in college football. Also, there’s a bowl game that day as well. Yeah, none of this makes sense.

Alright so next up is the bowl projections list with a few bowl games actually already confirming their matchups. Nice to see but really it is a necessity considering the way the bowl schedule is structured. College and NFL schedules later in the week.

A CFP without Clemson? – Week 14 College Football Recap

Posted on December 7, 2020 by guelphbossman

Last year I did this and talked about the College Football Playoff without Alabama. This time I posit about Clemson possibly not making the CFP. And that could happen. Their win over Virginia Tech looks good on paper but man it was a struggle until about the last part of the third quarter once they finally started pulling away (and after ABC hilariously aired an interview with Ian Book during the game probably thinking the Tigers would have essentially put the game away by then). They clinch their spot in the ACC Championship and get a rematch with Notre Dame. If they lose, they are guaranteed not to be in the CFP since the first one back in the 2014 season. That would honestly feel odd. Like Bama missing it last year.

Alright, enough of Clemson’s potential issues. Let’s get to the recap!

The Recap!

Let’s start with what ended up being the game of the week (of the year?): the game that was scheduled on THURSDAY between BYU and Coastal Carolina. An epic affair between two Top 20 teams with the winner getting a possible legitimate shot at the New Year’s Six. The final play looked very similar to when the Titans came up one yard short against the Rams in Super Bowl XXXIV. Coastal ended up holding on for the victory which should move them up in the CFP rankings. What it probably ended up doing though is far more important: BYU deciding to fill in for Liberty (who had COVID issues that made it so they couldn’t play) on a few days’ notice will create a new way to schedule games going forward. This is huge for college football and is a much needed change from scheduling non-conference games 20 years out (which everyone, except ADs, think is absolutely ludicrous).
Michigan State wasn’t even within an area code of Ohio State. To be honest, it was painful to watch. The Buckeyes continue their run to the Big Ten Championship (hopefully). The game against Michigan this Saturday looms large. Michigan’s game this past weekend was cancelled and if they still have issues with COVID-19 then they may have to have this one be cancelled as well. As per the Big Ten rules, this would make tOSU in eligible for the Big Ten title game. It’s ridiculous that this could happen but it’s possible that they would not even make their conference championship but get to the CFP. If the Big Ten is smart, they find a way to get the Buckeyes a game if the the game against The Team Up North has to be cancelled.
I think Iowa State heard the haters. What they did to West Virginia was nasty. That huge victory clinched their trip to JerryWorld for the first time in team history. The Cyclones are trying to erase the memory of the early season loss to Louisiana although I don’t know why since the Ragin’ Cajuns are ranked.
Speaking of the Ragin’ Cajuns that was something else down in Boone Friday night. Some disgusting footbaw weather (rain this time) made it very difficult, especially for Louisiana’s poor long snapper who made multiple horrible snaps that kept the Cajuns from pulling away from the Mountaineers. In the end, a missed App State field goal allowed Louisiana to get the duke and also stay ranked going into their bye week as they prepare for Coastal Carolina in the biggest Sun Belt Championship ever.
Good job, Oklahoma State. Any hope to sneak into the Big XII Championship went up in flames Saturday in Fort Worth. Not like TCU played all that well. But the Cowboys were finally exposed and we have another season where the Mullet Express will not head to the Metroplex which has to be frustrating Oklahoma State fans at this point.
Who picked Colorado to start 4-0? Put your hands down you liars. The Buffaloes were lead by Jarek Broussard’s insane day on the ground as he ran for 301 yards! I get it, it was just Arizona. But it was still impressive. The worst part about all this? Because their game against USC was cancelled, the Pac-12 might have two undefeated teams in the same division and only one of those teams will head to the Pac-12 Championship game. For the final time, ABOLISH DIVISIONS! It has run its course. There is no need for them now. Plus having no divisions ensures the best two teams (on the season) will play for the conference title. Instead, we may see Oregon or even Washington in the Pac-12 title game. Yuck.
It felt like an upset was in the making for a while. But Texas A&M did enough to hold on for the win over Auburn and keep their slim College Football Playoff hopes alive. They have done this despite the team not looking all that good for much of the season. Saying that, if the Aggies can make the CFP, the 10-year contract given to Jimbo Fisher starts to look a whole lot smarter.
Let’s see if I get this correct: Rice’s 20-0 win over Marshall was a shocker for sure. The Herd threw five interceptions and looked horrible all day. This marked the Owls’ first win over a ranked team in 23 years and their first shutout of a ranked opponent in 60 years! It’s Marshall’s first loss, ending their slim NY6 hopes. And it is probably the first time that a 1-win team has shut out a ranked team in December. And of course it was on ESPN3 so barely anyone got to watch it.
Texas scored 69 points against Kansas State. Nice.
The other game of the week ended up being Arkansas-Missouri. What an amazing finish. The Hogs go down the field, score the TD and decide to go for two. The two-point conversion pass is in the Mizzou defender’s hands and just tips out and into the Arkansas receiver’s hands to give the Razorbacks the lead. Then the Tigers go down the field and their freshman kicker nails the winning field goal. Missouri is quietly 5-3 under first-year head coach Eli Drinkwitz. Pretty impressive.
Finally, Akron won its first game in 770 days. That is not a typo. They beat Bowling Green who is probably the worst FBS team this season.

Coaching Carousel

Hey let’s have some fun and look at the coaching carousel.

So what is happening on the ol’ carousel? Let’s take a look.

Get this. Scott Satterfield, despite saying he wasn’t going to look for another coaching position, talked with South Carolina anyway. Many people are very upset, especially at Louisville. Don’t be surprised if Satterfield is shitcanned in the next few weeks.
As for the Gamecocks job, it goes to Shane Beamer. Yes, Frank’s son. He wasn’t the first two choices, that we know since Billy Napier also turned down the job after Satterfield did. He is going to have his work cut out for him making South Carolina a contender in the SEC East.
Derek Mason was dismissed at Vanderbilt. No real surprise there. Who will replace him? It seems like whoever it is really has to change the perception of the program and convince the university to spend more money on the program and/or get better recruits.
Jay Hopson was fired a few months ago. Yes it has been that long ago. Will Hall, Tulane’s offensive coordinator, has been hired by the Golden Eagles to bring that program out of the dumps.
Gary Andersen was fired a while ago at Utah State. If I was a program, even at the FCS level, I would stay away from this clown since he is totally unreliable.

Potential other coaching moves:

Texas – Even with Texas’s shellacking of Kansas State on Saturday, Tom Herman’s time in Austin may be over soon. And of course who is the top candidate to replace him? Urban Meyer, of course! The other candidate looks to be Penn State’s James Franklin, of all people. The real straw that may have broken the proverbial camel’s back at Texas is losing Quinn Ewers, the top-ranked quarterback for two seasons from now, to Ohio State.
Kansas – The Les Miles Experiment really has not worked in Lawrence. And who may be the first to admit it? Les himself. He may decide to retire rather than stick around knowing it will take at least another two years to get the Jayhawks back into contention in the Big XII for the first time in over a decade.
Brent Venables – Every off-season his name comes up as it pertains to the coaching carousel. This season is no different. Expect a less polished Power Five program throwing out a bunch of money to possibly lure him into his first head coaching job.
ULM – Things were on the up-and-up in Monroe under Matt Viator. Then came this year’s collapse as the Warhawks are now the worst team in the Sun Belt. They will look probably to the FCS to find candidates. UPDATE: Viator has been fired.
FIU – After two great years, things have been horrible for Butch Davis in 2020. They thought they had their man but he may not be the guy to grow this program. Problem is his buyout is over $1 million so that may keep him with the Golden Panthers for another season.
Middle Tennessee – The thing I can’t believe is the buyout for Rick Stockstill. $5.8 million! Who the fuck put that into his contract? Anyway, his contract runs for three more seasons so I could see MTSU bringing him back at least for 2021 to see if the Blue Raiders improve and then make a decision.
Luke Fickell – This is probably the guy every Power Five program that has fired their coach or might let theirs go is looking at. He has done some unreal things at Cincinnati. And remember, so did Brian Kelly and Mark Dantonio and they both had very good coaching careers at the Power Five level.
Jim Harbaugh/Michigan – Good lord, here we go again. The buyout is large but his next season is technically his last in Ann Arbor under his current deal. The Wolverines have been nothing short of awful this year and you have to wonder if Harbaugh has lost his spark. He almost seems destined to go back to the NFL, if not for next season then definitely for 2021. If Michigan pulls the trigger and fires him after this season, this automatically becomes the best coaching opening available with nothing else even close.
Tom Allen – Don’t laugh. This guy cemented his Coach of the Year with the big win over Wisconsin this past weekend. The players and other coaches love him and he has endless energy. If one of Michigan, Florida State, Penn State or Tennessee decides to move on, he is the guy. It’s pricey. They will have to probably chip in for his buyout which is, *GASP* $23.5 million. Holy shit. But it may be worth it.

Remember last week I said I would talk about the conference championship races? Well here we go. Man this post is getting into Super Mega Hyper Omni Post territory.

It’s the third annual Sun Belt Championship game and they still haven’t got Mountain Dew or Skoal or Shoney’s or some place like that to sponsor it. This will be the first Sun Belt Championship not to feature Appalachian State. Coastal Carolina and Louisiana have won their respective divisions and will face off in the championship game at the home of the Chanticleers in Conway, South Carolina, near Myrtle Beach (which you should know if you watched Mormons vs. Mullets on Saturday).

Conference USA has been a mess all season. The conference seems to be limping to the end. In the East, no-longer-undefeated Marshall must beat Charlotte to win the division. If they don’t win, it feels like there will be some tiebreaker action between the Herd and Florida Atlantic (and possibly even Charlotte). Stay tuned. In the West, UTSA leads the way followed closely by UAB. It all comes down to next week’s game between UAB and Rice. Blazers win and they play in the conference title game. If they lose, it goes to UTSA.

The MAC title tilt is halfway set, I think. Nothing has been officially said but it feels like Buffalo has clinched the MAC East. I don’t know why it hasn’t been announced yet though. In the MAC West, Ball State faces Western Michigan this Saturday and the winner heads to Detroit.

San Jose State and Boise State seem primed to make up for their cancelled game in the conference championship with both teams still undefeated in the conference. Boise plays Wyoming and SJSU plays Nevada this weekend. Here are the scenarios:

Broncos and Spartans win and they both go to the conference championship.
Broncos win and Spartans lose, it’s Nevada and Boise in the title game.
Both Broncos and Spartans lose, it’s Boise and SJSU in the championship.

Alright Cincinnati is already in. And Tulsa clinched their spot this past Saturday. Now Cincinnati heads to Tulsa this Saturday and then will host them the following weekend. It would not surprise me to see this game cancelled to give both teams a week of rest.

It’s Clemson up against Notre Dame in a massive rematch of their earlier game. Huge implications for this game.

This has been set. The somewhat surprising Iowa State Cyclones get their chance against Oklahoma at JerryWorld.

The Pac-12 is a complete shitshow. Let me try and make some understanding of all this.

Washington could have clinched on Saturday but lost to Stanford. So now if Washington beats Oregon they go to the Pac-12 title game, wherever that may be.
Oregon, on the other hand, is in if they beat Washington thanks to Oregon State’s loss to Utah.
USC, after beating Washington State, is tied with Colorado at the top of the South.
If both teams win next weekend, it comes to who is higher up in the CFP rankings. Meaning the Trojans will have the edge.

So, of course, the Pac-12 fucks things up again. Undefeated Colorado quite possibly could be left out of the Pac-12 title game because they have divisions. Can someone fire Larry Scott already?

Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West despite sitting at home and will await to see if the Ohio State-Michigan game gets played. If the Wolverines have to cancel, that makes tOSU ineligible for the conference championship game. This would mean Indiana would travel a short way to Indianapolis to play for the Big Ten crown. If the game is played and the Buckeyes beat Michigan, then they are heading there. Or, the Big Ten could change the rules and allow Ohio State to go anyway. Who the hell knows anymore.

Alabama and Florida. No LSU, who could be one of the worst defending champs in recent memory. But in an interesting twist, it will be the Texas A&M Football Aggies who will be watching in earnest (as long as they take of business this weekend).

Alright that was a super long post. But it keeps you informed going into next week, the quasi-last week of the regular season. Now we can remember what it was like when Army-Navy shared the week with a bunch of other weird games. Later in the week will be the normal bowl projection, college football schedule and NFL schedule posts. Have a great week everyone!

It’s time for CRAZY bowl projections (that may not be that crazy).

Posted on November 17, 2020 by guelphbossman

I have done this three times before. I wonder if I should go back and check how close those crazy projections were. I might just do that one day but today is not that day. Today is the day for stupidly ridiculous projections that actually follow some sort of logic.

Every time I have done this exercise in the past I have done all the bowl games. Except for last year where I decided that was stupid. So this will not happen this time around again. I will just do the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six games because there’s no real point in doing the rest of the bowl games to be honest with you. So let’s….get………CRAZY!

Sugar Bowl	CFP Poll #1 vs. CFP Poll #4	Florida vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl	CFP Poll #2 vs. CFP Poll #3	Indiana vs. Miami

Jesus Christ, what the fuck happened? Let me explain how I get to this point:

Alabama loses to Auburn and also to Arkansas. Texas A&M sneaks up from behind, running the table and shockingly winning the SEC West. Who else runs the table the rest of the way? Florida, with Heisman hopeful Kyle Trask leading the way. In a very close game, Florida beats Texas A&M to claim the SEC Championship, the #1 seed in the College Football Playoff rankings, and relegates TAMU to the New Year’s Six.
Clemson loses to Virginia Tech as their second loss. Notre Dame also loses…twice! Once to North Carolina and then, in an upset, to Wake Forest. This allows The U to make their way back into the Top 4 by winning out. Miami beats Notre Dame in another close conference championship game, and claims the #3 spot in the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State loses to Indiana, while the Hoosiers win out. So the Fighting Tom Allens finish 8-0 and win the Big Ten East and get undefeated Northwestern (who beats Wisconsin). The Hoosiers beat the Wildcats pretty handily to win their first Big Ten Championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl.
Colorado (yes, Colorado) wins out and easily wins the Pac-12 South. Washington upsets Oregon along the way to winning the Pac-12 North. The Buffs beats the Huskies to capture the Pac-12 Championship but thanks to the Pac-12’s late start (and both teams losing a game to COVID), they fall short of getting into the College Football Playoff.
Iowa State runs the table, including a win over Texas, then takes loses to Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship. Oklahoma goes 9-2 which is obviously not enough for a spot in the CFP.
Cincinnati runs the table and with all that happened around them, ascends to #5. They win the AAC Championship in an absolute romp over Tulsa and wait to see what happens on the rest of conference championship weekend.

All this means Florida is your new #1, Indiana gets in at #2, Miami takes the #3 spot. The #4 spot has been a tough one since the College Football Playoff came to fruition. Controversy almost every year. This year it’s a bit easier as Cincinnati becomes the first Group of Five team to ever get into the College Football Playoff thanks to the Aggies loss to the Gators in the SEC Championship (which is in primetime this year). I assume the 8-team playoff talk will be deafening because only Florida and Miami could be considered close to college football bluebloods in this scenario. Hopefully they stick to their guns and wait at least a few more years before discussing an expansion (and that that expansion only goes to five teams as I have explained before). Alright, let’s see how nuts the New Year’s Six is.

Orange Bowl	ACC Champ vs. SEC #2	Clemson vs. Texas A&M
Fiesta Bowl	CFP At-large vs. CFP At-large/G5 #1	BYU vs. Colorado
Peach Bowl	CFP At-large vs. CFP At-large/G5 #1	Ohio State vs. Coastal Carolina
Cotton Bowl	CFP At-large vs. CFP At-large/G5 #1	Oklahoma vs. Oregon

I mean this doesn’t look as nuts as the College Football Playoff. Time to explain:

BYU is #5 since they are the best team not to go to a conference championship since, you know, they aren’t in a conference at all. They end up winning out and making it so The Committee has to put them in a NY6 game.
Colorado will be #6 since the Pac-12 gets a spot in the NY6 bowls no matter what (unless they have a team in the CFP). They are slotted in the Fiesta Bowl as the Pac-12’s best team after their win over Washington. I assume they would end up playing BYU there as they two of the three western-most teams here.
Remember I told you that Texas A&M somehow gets to the SEC Championship after Bama’s collpase? Yep, considering the chaos, even with a conference championship loss they land at #7 and the Orange Bowl as the SEC’s second-best team.
Oklahoma will be #8 which is damn high for the Big XII this season considering what has happened with that conference. They head to the Cotton Bowl.
This is going to be controversial but Ohio State ends up at #9. They don’t even get to the Big Ten Championship thanks to their loss to Indiana but finishing with only one loss gives them the Peach Bowl spot.
In a bit more controversy, Oregon ends up behind Ohio State at #10. They get the other at-large spot to go to the Cotton Bowl to face Oklahoma.
Even though Clemson lost and was left out of the ACC Championship, you think The Committee is leaving them out of the NY6? Close losses to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech allowing them to move into the #11 spot. This puts them in the Orange Bowl as the ACC representative because Miami is in the CFP.
The final spot. Who to send? There’s really only one team that probably should be there considering their season. And that team is the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. I have two assumptions here: a) the Group of Five still gets a representative in the New Year’s Six even though Cincinnati is in the Top 4 and b) the Chants go undefeated and destroy every team the rest of the way. Remember, BYU cannot qualify as a Group of Five team for the New Year’s Six and this is why this would work.

What in the hell? Again, I don’t care about the rest of the bowl games in this exercise. Let’s be honest: what are the chances that all the other bowl games are played? The answer is fucking zero.

Alright tonight we got some MACtion! Hey it’s college football on a Tuesday so let’s rejoice about that. Also more football the next night as well. We have football every day between now and the day before American Thanksgiving. Oh yeah!

Enjoy the rest of your week everyone!

Bossman's Blog

A lot of college football (and perhaps a bit of miscellaneous crap that I think warrants a post)

Tag Archives: conference championship game

We have to have some chaos…right? – Conference Championship Weekend TV schedule

Friday

Saturday Early

Saturday Afternoon

Saturday Primetime

Crazy Bowl Projections V5.0!

That was LSU’s Shoeper Bowl! – Week 15 College Football Recap

Thursday

Friday

Saturday Early

Saturday Afternoon

Saturday Primetime & Late Night

A CFP without Clemson? – Week 14 College Football Recap

Friday

Saturday Early

Saturday Afternoon

Saturday Primetime

Friday

Saturday Early

Saturday Afternoon

Saturday Primetime

Wednesday​​

Thursday

Friday​

Saturday Early​​

Saturday Afternoon​

Saturday Primetime​

Saturday Late Night​

Thursday​

Friday

Saturday Early

Saturday Afternoon

Saturday Primetime & Late Night​

Wednesday

Friday

Saturday Early

Saturday Afternoon

Saturday Primetime

Saturday Late Night

Thursday

Saturday Primetime & Late Night