Last year around this time we were discussing the final week of the regular season, sure. However, we were also kind of recovering from what happened to Damar Hamlin’s on-field cardiac arrest. It was one of the craziest times in NFL history and I hope we never have to deal with something like that again.
This year, let’s look at the positive. All the playoff races that are left. And there are plenty. Let’s get to that schedule and then we will do my typical final NFL regular season week analysis. Here we go!
American Networks
Atlanta at New Orleans | 1:00 | Seattle, Spokane, Minneapolis, Detroit | |
Cleveland at Cincinnati | 1:00 | Cleveland | |
Jacksonville at Tennessee | 1:00 | Buffalo, Rochester, Watertown, Burlington, Boston, Presque Isle | |
Minnesota at Detroit | 1:00 | Tacoma, Seattle, Spokane, Minneapolis, Detroit | |
NY Jets at New England | 1:00 | Buffalo, Rochester, Watertown, Burlington, Boston, Presque Isle | |
Chicago at Green Bay | 4:25 | Seattle, Spokane, Minneapolis, Detroit, Cleveland | |
Philadelphia at NY Giants | 4:25 | Buffalo, Rochester, Watertown, Burlington, Boston, Presque Isle | |
Seattle at Arizona | 4:25 | Tacoma, Seattle, Spokane | |
Dallas at Washington | 4:25 | Minneapolis, Buffalo, Rochester, Watertown, Burlington, Boston, Presque Isle | |
LA Rams at San Francisco | 4:25 | Detroit |
Canadian Networks
Jacksonville at Tennessee | 1:00 | Northern Ontario, Kitchener, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Atlantic | ||
Atlanta at New Orleans | 1:00 | Vancouver Island, Alberta | TSN1, TSN4, TSN5 | |
Minnesota at Detroit | 1:00 | Vancouver, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Winnipeg | All affiliates (except Vancouver Island & Alberta) | |
Chicago at Green Bay | 4:25 | Alberta, Saskatchewan, Winnipeg, Northern Ontario, Ottawa | TSN1, TSN4, TSN5 | |
Philadelphia at NY Giants | 4:25 | Montreal, Atlantic | ||
Dallas at Washington | 4:25 | Kitchener, Toronto | ||
Seattle at Arizona | 4:25 | Vancouver |
Saturday Games and Sunday Night Game
Pittsburgh at Baltimore | Saturday, 4:30, ABC, CTV, TSN 1/3/4/5 |
Houston at Indianapolis | Saturday, 8:15, ABC, CTV, TSN 1/3/4/5 |
Buffalo at Miami | Sunday, 8:15, NBC, CTV, TSN 1/3*/4*/5/+ |
Some Super Special Last Regular Season Weekend Notes
- As per usual, it’s all divisional matchups for the final week of the season. And there are a lot of playoff races as I will discuss later on.
- You see the asterisks for the Bills-Dolphins game for TSN3 and TSN4. Well, the game will start airing on TSN3 after the Jets-Coyotes game and, for some unknown and stupid reason, Sportscentre. So it will start around 10:00: a little into the third quarter. As for TSN4, they have the Raptors and Warriors so they won’t get to the game until about 11:00. The football game should be well into the fourth quarter at that point. So really, stick to TSN1 or 5 (or + if you like the “enhanced” game feed).
- The three national games were pretty easy choices, for the most part. Bills-Dolphins felt like a lock for the Sunday nighter once Miami was blown away by Baltimore. Texans-Colts was also pretty much a lock for a standalone game considering it’s win-or-go-home. The other choice was interesting for sure. A lot of possibilities. Steelers-Ravens makes sense just because a win by the Steelers makes the Buffalo-Miami game all the more important for the Bills. It becomes a much bigger risk-reward game for the Bills as they almost assuredly out with a loss in this case.
- Games not being shown here unless you have the Sunday Ticket or RedZone magic potion:
- Kansas City at LA Chargers
- Tampa Bay at Carolina
- Denver at Las Vegas
- No surprise really with the first and third games on that list not being available up here. The second one is a bit interesting since the Bucs win the NFC South with a win, no matter what happens with the Saints and Falcons. I think the issue north of the border was where would this be shown that would take the place of the other two games on in this timeslot on FOX. It probably could have replaced the Jets-Patriots game to be honest but I have a feeling that FOX figured the AFC East, even with a meaningless game, would be more watched than an NFC South matchup in the Northeastern United States and most of Eastern Canada. And they are probably right.
- Hey thankfully I don’t have to go over the strangest set of scenarios ever like last season. Let’s hope that never happens again…more for Damar Hamlin’s case than anything.
So this is it. We have made it. The final playoff picture of the season:
AFC | NFC |
#1 Baltimore (13-3) (clinched home-field advantage) | #1 San Francisco (12-4) (clinched home-field advantage) |
#2 Miami (11-5) (clinched playoff berth) | #2 Dallas (11-5) (clinched playoff berth) |
#3 Kansas City (10-6) (clinched AFC West) | #3 Detroit (11-5) (clinched NFC North) |
#4 Jacksonville (9-7) | #4 Tampa Bay (8-8) |
Wild Cards: | Wild Cards: |
#5 Cleveland (11-5) (clinched playoff berth) | #5 Philadelphia (11-5) (clinched playoff berth) |
#6 Buffalo (10-6) | #6 LA Rams (9-7) (clinched playoff berth) |
#7 Indianapolis (9-7) | #7 Green Bay (8-8) |
Alright so what do we have left to determine? Four divisions still up for grabs as the AFC East, AFC South, NFC East and NFC South still hasn’t determined their champion. Also, one Wild Card spot in the NFC and two in the AFC with still a few teams in the mix there. A lot can happen during this weekend so let’s get right to the scenarios.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
- Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot under the following scenarios:
- A win AND either a Buffalo loss OR a Jacksonville loss/tie
- A win AND an Indianapolis tie
- A tie AND two of Indianapolis, Jacksonville, or Houston lose
- Jacksonville loses AND Denver wins AND either Indianapolis or Houston lose
- Pittsburgh is eliminated under the following scenarios:
- A Jacksonville win AND a Buffalo win/tie AND either an Indianapolis OR Houston win
- A loss/tie AND either a Jacksonville win/tie OR an Indianapolis tie
- A loss AND a Denver loss/tie
Houston at Indianapolis
- Indianapolis clinches the AFC South with (a win AND a Jacksonville loss/tie) OR (a tie AND a Jacksonville loss)
- Houston clinches the AFC South with a win AND a Jacksonville loss/tie
- Indianapolis clinches a playoff spot with a win OR (a tie AND a Pittsburgh loss/tie)
- Houston clinches a playoff spot wth a win OR (a tie AND a Jacksonville loss AND a Pittsburgh loss/tie)
- Houston is eliminated with a loss OR (a tie AND either a Jacksonville win/tie OR a Pittsburgh win)
- Indianapolis is eliminated with a loss OR (a tie AND a Jacksonville win/tie AND a Pittsburgh win)
Jacksonville at Tennessee
- Jacksonville clinches the AFC South with a win OR (a tie and an Indianapolis tie)
- Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot with (a tie AND a Pittsburgh loss/tie) OR (a Pittsburgh loss AND a Denver loss/tie AND either Houston OR Indianapolis loses)
- Jacksonville is eliminated with (a tie AND a Pittsburgh win AND either a Houston or Indianapolis win) OR (a loss AND either a Pittsburgh win/tie OR a Denver win OR an Indianapolis tie)
Atlanta at New Orleans
- Atlanta clinches the NFC South with a win AND a Tampa Bay loss
- New Orleans clinches the NFC South with (a win AND a Tampa Bay loss/tie) OR (a tie AND a Tampa Bay loss)
- New Orleans clinches a playoff spot with (a win AND a Green Bay loss/tie AND a Seattle loss/tie) OR (a tie AND a Green Bay loss AND a Seattle loss)
- Atlanta is eliminated with a loss/tie OR a Tampa Bay win/tie
- New Orleans is eliminated with a loss OR (a tie AND a Tampa Bay win/tie AND either a Green Bay or Seattle win/tie) OR (a Tampa Bay win AND either a Green Bay or Seattle win)
Minnesota at Detroit
- Minnesota clinches a playoff spot with a win AND a Seattle loss AND a Green Bay loss AND either a Tampa Bay OR New Orleans loss
- Minnesota is eliminated with a loss/tie OR a Seattle win/tie OR a Green Bay win/tie OR Tampa Bay and New Orleans both winning or tying
Tampa Bay at Carolina
- Tampa Bay clinches the NFC South with a win OR (a tie and a New Orleans loss/tie)
- Tampa Bay clinches a playoff spot with a tie AND a Seattle loss AND a Green Bay loss/tie
- Tampa Bay is eliminated with a loss OR (a tie AND a New Orleans win AND either a Seattle win/tie or a Green Bay win)
Chicago at Green Bay
- Green Bay clinches a playoff spot with a win OR:
- a tie AND (a Seattle loss/tie AND a New Orleans loss/tie) OR (a Seattle tie AND a Tampa Bay loss/tie) OR (a Seattle loss AND a Tampa Bay loss)
- a loss AND a Seattle loss AND a Minnesota loss/tie AND either a Tampa Bay or New Orleans loss
- Green Bay is eliminated with (a loss AND either (a Minnesota win or a Seattle win/tie or (a Tampa Bay win/tie and a New Orleans win/tie)) OR a tie AND either (a Seattle win or (a Tampa Bay win and a New Orleans win) or (a Seattle loss AND a New Orleans win AND a Tampa Bay tie)
Philadelphia at NY Giants
- Philadelphia clinches the NFC East with (a win AND a Dallas loss/tie) OR (a tie AND a Dallas loss)
Dallas at Washington
- Dallas clinches the NFC East with a win OR (a tie and a Philadelphia tie) OR a Philadelphia loss
Seattle at Arizona
- Seattle clinches a playoff spot with a win AND a Green Bay loss AND either a New Orleans or Tampa Bay loss/tie) OR (a win AND a Green Bay loss/tie)
- Seattle is eliminated with a loss OR (a tie AND a New Orleans win AND a Tampa Bay win) OR (a tie AND a Green Bay tie) OR a Green Bay win
Buffalo at Miami
- Buffalo clinches the AFC East with a win
- Miami clinches the AFC East with a win OR a tie
- Buffalo clinches a playoff spot with a tie OR a Pittsburgh loss/tie OR a Jacksonville loss/tie OR an Indianapolis tie
- Buffalo is eliminated with a loss AND one of the following three scenarios:
- a Jacksonville win AND a Houston win AND a Pittsburgh loss/tie
- a Jacksonville win AND an Indianapolis win AND a Pittsburgh loss/tie
- a Pittsubrgh win AND an Indianapolis tie
- a Jacksonville loss/tie AND a Pittsburgh win
If there is a tie….in almost any game….this is going to become a mess. Although it does become super interesting if that is the case and I do love chaos.
I was going to do tables to show where teams could land based on the scenarios above (obviously leaving ties out) but the NFC one alone would be insane. Viewing it on a cell phone would be impossible. Hell, viewing it on a wide-screen TV might be difficult. So I will not bother with that. Instead, I will do a seeding breakdown like I did last year. I will not include ties here. Here are the seeding scenarios.
AFC
#1 seed
- Baltimore locked in
#2 seed
- Miami – win
- Buffalo – win
#3 seed
- Kansas City locked in
#4 seed
- Jacksonville – win
- Indianapolis – win AND Jacksonville loss
- Houston – win AND Jacksonville loss
#5 seed
- Cleveland locked in
#6 seed
- Miami – loss
- Buffalo – loss AND Pittsburgh loss AND Jacksonville loss
- Indianapolis – win AND Jacksonville win AND Buffalo loss
- Houston – win AND Jacksonville win AND Buffalo loss
- Pittsburgh – win AND Jacksonville loss AND Buffalo loss
#7 seed
- Buffalo – loss AND (Jacksonville win AND Pittsburgh loss AND either Houston or Indianapolis loss) OR (Jacksonville loss AND Pittsburgh win)
- Indianapolis – win AND Jacksonville win AND Buffalo win
- Pittsburgh –
dog’s breakfast(win AND Buffalo win AND Jacksonville loss) OR (win AND Buffalo loss AND Jacksonville win AND either Houston OR Indianapolis win) OR (loss AND Jacksonville loss AND Denver win AND either Houston OR Indianapolis win) - Jacksonville – loss AND Pittsburgh loss AND Denver loss AND either Houston OR Indianapolis loss
- Houston – win AND Jacksonville win AND Buffalo win
NFC
#1 seed
- San Francisco locked in
#2 seed
- Dallas – win OR (loss AND Philadelphia loss AND Detroit loss)
- Philadelphia – win AND Dallas loss
- Detroit – win AND Dallas loss AND Philadelphia loss
#3 seed
- Dallas – loss AND Philadelphia loss AND Detroit win
- Detroit – loss OR Dallas win OR Philadelphia win
#4 seed
- Tampa Bay – win
- New Orleans – win AND Tampa Bay loss
- Atlanta – win AND Tampa Bay loss
#5 seed
- Philadelphia – loss OR Dallas win
- Dallas – loss AND Philadelphia win
#6 seed
- Green Bay – win AND LA Rams loss
- LA Rams – win OR Green Bay loss
#7 seed
- Green Bay – (win AND LA Rams win) OR (loss AND Seattle loss AND Minnesota loss AND either Tampa Bay OR New Orleans loss)
- Minnesota – win AND Seattle loss AND Green Bay loss AND either Tampa Bay OR New Orleans loss
- New Orleans – win AND Tampa Bay win AND Green Bay loss AND Seattle loss
- LA Rams – loss AND Green Bay win
- Seattle – win AND Green Bay loss
Holy shit we are in for one hell of a weekend of American Professional Football. I really don’t need to say this but enjoy the games everyone!