Oh god…it’s that time again. Alright *deep breath*……let’s take a look at my 2017 CFB predictions

No more football this season.  Yes this is sad.  We are six-and-a-half months away from college football starting again.  No, I will not watch spring games.  I think it’s somewhat ridiculous.  I get the point of them (kind of) but still won’t watch them.  It helps that most of them are on ESPN so I won’t get them anyway.  I will do more mock draft posts (pin drop in the audience) but will not watch the Combine…at least live.  I will watch some analysis of it but for the most part I find the NFL’s Kreepy Kombine to be bizarre.  I guess you could call it Football Scouting Porn.  The CFL starts in like late May this year with their pre-season (May 27th to be exact).  Why most (if not all) of these games aren’t in neutral locations I can never figure out.  There are only eight pre-season games in total.  Eight.  Not hard to figure out other places to put them if you really want to grow the game.

Anyway, let’s get on to the meat of this post (the roast beef if you will)…my college football predictions this season.  Some were pretty good.  Others….my god they were so off the mark.  Let us begin shall we?

College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six

• My College Football Playoff Final Four was…well, off the mark:
  • Alabama – They got in.  And won the whole thing.  I had them losing in the semis though so I struck out there.  And that was the best of my picks.
  • USC – I figured they would be #1.  They were not.  They struggled a bit but still made the New Year’s Six.  To face…
  • Ohio State – I figured they would find a way to get out of the tough Big Ten and into the CFP.  They did win the Big Ten Championship and lost out on the spot to Alabama and ended up at the Cotton Bowl where they beat the Trojans pretty handily.  So still not too bad with my picks so far.
  • Wisconsin – The first part I got right.  I said they’d run the table going into the Big Ten title game and they did.  But they weren’t high enough up in the rankings to survive the loss they had to Ohio State which is what I also said would happen.  So in the end, these picks weren’t too bad considering Wisky also made the New Year’s Six.
• How about my New Year’s Six picks?  Let’s see…Florida?  Tennessee?  Florida State?  Fuck.
• I had Northwestern, Auburn and Michigan being just on the outside of the NY6 looking in but playing in good bowls.  Not bad Bossman.  Not bad at all.

Heisman Trophy

• Yes I had Sam Darnold to win it but a lot of other people did too.  I did have Baker Mayfield as runner-up though.  I am impressed with myself.
• The only misses would be Deondre Francois (who could have been if he hadn’t been injured in game one) and Bo Scarbrough.  Other than the Mark Ingram season, Saban likes to use the committee in the backfield kind of thing.  I should know this by now.

Let’s Look at Some Bad Team Predictions

• Should we start in the SEC?  Why not since I was such shit in the SEC East (SEC West I fucking ROCKED!).  I had Florida 1st, followed by Tennessee.  Good god.  I also had Missouri last and South Carolina tied for fourth although those don’t look TOO bad considering I think I was on par with many other actual experts on this.
• I thought it would be Purdon’t again.  It wasn’t.
• Both Arizonas did much better than I thought.  And even then both head coaches were still shitcanned (for wildly different reasons).
• Baylor was trash (which many were overjoyed with).
• Florida State was WAY worse than it should have been.
• BYU was God awful…..hehe.
• Tulsa was terrible.
• The Florida Initial Universities did much better than I figured.  The Atlantic version (thanks to Lane Kiffin) and the International version (thanks to Butch Davis).
• North Texas was also really good (and fun to watch).

Let’s Look at Some Good Team Predictions

• There are many I got absolutely correct (or pretty close to it) so let’s look at some odd ones like Alabama losing a game (to Auburn) and still winning the SEC West.  OK the last part wasn’t right but I was close otherwise.
• Wisconsin running the regular season table.  Oh yeah.
• Low hanging fruit but I almost aced the Pac-12 North.
• Texas finishing fourth.  Not at the top or near the bottom like many others thought.
• Toledo being ALMOST the class of the Group of Five.
• Appalachian State kind of doing the same thing.
• And the Mountain West as a whole.  Staying up until ungodly times in the morning to watch their games paid off!

Coaching Hot Seat Fun-Time Extravaganza

• I had Paul Haynes at the top of my list.  No surprise he got fired.
• I had Todd Graham #3 on my list.  He was fired although many were shocked he was.  And he was replaced by Herm Edwards.  That’s gonna be a real interesting 2018 in Tempe.
• Sean Kugler, Kevin Sumlin and Rich Rodriguez were all in my Probable Shitcanning section.  Good times.  David Beaty was also on the list and will be brought back for 2018 which is another reason we need promotion and relegation in college football.
• Not even I could have predicted how poorly they treated Bret Bielema when they fired him.
• My Doubtful Shitcanning list had the most hits.  God damn it!  Then again I couldn’t put everyone in the predicted-to-be-fired bucket.  It would get too crowded.

So again I decided to compare myself to the Stassen method of pre-season predictions.  I do want to know where I stand despite the fact I usually stand near the bottom of the ladder looking up on people much, much smarter than myself on this topic.  So after much calculation (including perhaps some trigonometry and calculus), I got…drum roll please………………

145.

That puts me TIED FOR FIFTH!  Wow.  That’s pretty damn good if I must say so myself.  Then again I don’t have near the knowledge every one of the actual participants in that list have but still….yay me!  It helps that I would have had the best marks for my Big Ten East, Big XII and Mountain West West Division and had damn good predictions for the Pac-12 North (although one magazine got it perfect…nice).

So hey I did well…for once.  This just makes me more sad that we are without college football for at least another 190 days.  Ugh.

So yeah mock drafts, college basketball conference tournament post, and some other filler until we get back to the good stuff sometime in the Spring.  Have a great week everyone…unless you are like me and dread Valentine’s Day and all that goes on with it.  Ugh.  The 15th can’t come soon enough.

The 2017 College Football Coaching Hot List – Sponsored by the Lane Kiffin Redemption Story

 

Yep. This guy again.

He’s on the road back to redemption and he had one of the greatest firings of all-time, being shitcanned on an airport tarmac while at USC. Nice!  I love stories like that.

It’s HOT SEAT TIME!  Last year, two of my four top selections and three of my top six were sent packing.  Unfortunately some coaches (like Craig Bohl) made me look like a fool by being really successful.  Thanks a lot Craig.  Like the haircut though.

Alright, here we go with the list.  I have ordered this (like last year) from most likely to be in the unemployment line to least likely:

Almost Guaranteed Shitcanning

1. Paul Haynes (Kent State) – He was #4 on my list last season.  How he kept his job is beyond me.  He just was put into a bad situation when he had to replace Darrell Hazell (who went on to do sweet fuck all at Purdue himself).  Needed to keep his job – A god damn miracle.  Prediction – Mid-season shitcanning and perhaps a year off of coaching altogether.
2. Lance Leipold (Buffalo) – Let’s stay in the MAC shall we?  Leipold came into much fanfare (well as much as you can get in the MAC).  He had guided Wisconsin-Whitewater to what seemed like a bajillion D-III titles.  His first year in Buffalo showed promise.  This past season not so much.  I can’t see this ending well for Sir Lance-a-not-so-much.  Needed to keep his job – vying for bowl eligibility in the final weekend.  Prediction – Scraping the bottom of the MAC barrel and heading back to FCS at the highest (if not back to D-III).
3. Todd Graham (Arizona State) – I remember when this guy liked to hop from job to job because he could. He was a good head coach and many programs wanted to have him.  Now he will be hopping to his next job but not of his own volition.  Needed to keep his job – Bowl eligibility and a victory over Arizona.  Prediction – 3 wins and who really cares at that point if the Sun Devils beat the Wildcats or not (see below for the reason why).
4. Kliff Kingsbury (Texas Tech) – Looks matter.  How do I know?  Well, many things in my life that I won’t get into now.  Also, Kute Kliff Kingsbury.  Here’s a guy who hit his high point halfway through his first season in Lubbock and is still around.  Why?  If it’s not his looks he must have damning photos of the athletic director in a compromising position.  Needed to keep his job – Some semblance of defense from his squad.  Prediction – Thousands of female college football fans crying and taking his offensive acumen to the FCS.

Probable Shitcanning

5. Sean Kugler (UTEP) – He was good for a soundbite or three when UTEP was good that one season.  Well, good enough in a Conference USA kind of way.  Since then, El Paso has once again become a college football outpost that no one wants to be in. Needed to keep his job – bowl eligibility.  Prediction – I can’t see them winning more than one game so this may happen during the season rather than wait for the misery to be over.
6. Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M) – He seems to be on this list a lot.  But he is never in the almost-guaranteed-to-be-fired part.  He just hasn’t seemed to recreate the magic when Johnny Manziel was around.  And yes, a big part was Gianni Party’s play but Sumlin had done wonders in Houston and appeared to be doing them in College Station.  That may not be the case anymore.  Needed to keep his job – 9 wins and be at least on the cusp of contending in the SEC West.  Prediction – 7 wins and the top Group of Five opening next season for Mr. Sumlin.
7. Mark Whipple (UMass) – When is UMass heading back to FCS?  Whenever it is, I can’t foresee Coach Whipple being there when it happens.  Needed to keep his job – at least 4 wins and to stay competitive in more games.  Prediction – 2 wins and a quiet exit.
8. Rich Rodriguez (Arizona) – Remember what I said above about Todd Graham?  I think RichRod is also in a hot seat but not nearly as hot as T-Graham’s.  No improvement in the desert may seal his fate though.  Needed to keep his job – being better than Arizona State.  Prediction – will not be better than Arizona State…and will be fired for it (along with many other reasons).
9. Brian Kelly (Notre Dame) – Kelly suffers from two things: 1) the Irish got to the national championship not too long ago and 2) the expectations in South Bend are ALWAYS at least 10 wins.  If he wasn’t such an insufferable prick at times I would feel sorry for him.  Needed to keep his job – 10 wins.  Did you not just read what I typed?  Prediction – 8 wins and I am sure he will yell at at least one player in plain view of a camera in front of a national audience.
10. David Beaty (Kansas) – Poor Dave Beaty.  Does he really have a chance in Lawrence to do anything except maybe (MAYBE) win four games at most?  I fail to see how he can win more with the state the program is.  God, I wish there was promotion/relegation.  Needed to keep his job – 4 wins.  Prediction – Half of that.  Or 2 wins for the less mathematically inclined.  Again, Poor Dave.

Possible Shitcanning

11. Lovie Smith (Illinois) – This isn’t the NFL, Lovie.  I think he understands that now.  An unenviable task in Champaign to turn around a program that has had little success in the past two decades (save the crazy 2007 season).  Needed to keep his job – 4 wins but be competitive and look like they could be a bowl team next year.  Prediction – 3 wins and the AD is going to have to take a long, hard look as to whether to retain Lovie or not.
12. Bret Bielema (Arkansas) – The SEC is still a gauntlet.  Saying that, the SEC is not known for a ton of coaching turnover.  One or two each season usually.  Bielema has a tough task ahead as the SEC West especially is difficult to say the least.  Needed to keep his job – Stay in the middle of the pack in the SEC West and at least scare one of Bama, Auburn, or LSU.  Prediction – 7 wins and at least some fans calling for his firing.

Doubtful Shitcanning

13. Steve Addazio (Boston College) – This is the exact same spot Steve-O was in last year.  And he came through with a 7-win season that led BC fans to still call for his head.  Guy can’t catch a break!  Needed to keep his job – Get to bowl eligibility again and hope the fans calm down a bit.  Prediction – 4 wins and it will be tough not to move way up this list next year.
14. David Bailiff (Rice) – I remember when he was consistently getting the Owls to bowl games.  I also remember when the Owls were in the Southwest Conference.  Times change.  Sometimes coaches have to as well.  But maybe not quite yet with Mr. Bailiff.  Needed to keep his job – some sense of improvement from last year’s down season.  Prediction – they will improve even if it doesn’t show up in their record.
15. Tyson Summers (Georgia Southern) – One year in and the athletic department had to send out a press release saying Summers would be retained for this season.  Confidence, gone.  Needed to keep his job – 5 wins and at least look like a potential bowl team.  Prediction – 5 wins and they will look like a bowl team for the most part.
16. Jim Mora (UCLA) – Jim needs the Rosen One to play like he has a shot at winning the Heisman this season.  And I think it will happen.  Not saying he will win the Heisman but he will be much improved and so will the Bruins.  Needed to keep his job –  7 wins.  Prediction – 9 wins and making USC sweat for the Victory Bell.
17. Chris Ash (Rutgers) – Coaching at Rutgers must be tough now that the team is firmly in the Big Ten basement.  Let’s be honest: very few people want that job.  Ash is a hero!  Needed to keep his job – he’s safe since no one else wants it for now.  Prediction – 3 wins and keeping Michigan under 60 points.
18. Butch Jones (Tennessee) – The Champions of Life.  Butch really needs to learn to just shut his mouth and coach sometimes.  Needed to keep his job – 9 wins and being a contender in the SEC East.  Prediction – 10 wins and STILL….CHAMPIONS OF LIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIFE…THE TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS!!!!

Done.  That took too long.  I don’t want to say I hope all these coaches get fired but I do like being accurate.

Next up will be my Heisman ballot.  No one should give me a Heisman ballot.  I will demonstrate why in the next post.  After that will have to be…yes, it’s the FIRST SCHEDULE POST OF THE SEASON!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Woohoo!  Finally made it.  We are four days out.  Problem is, I still don’t know where all the U.S. College Sports Package channels have gone to now that they have been replaced by regional CTV channels which, in essence, replaced the need for Sunday Ticket since DAZN now has it.  I will say this often I believe but if DAZN somehow gets a good college football package then I might be changing my tune about it.

Bowl Recap Numero Uno

Alright.  Six bowl games in the books.  Only 33 more!

So far, for the most part, we have seen some really good football with a couple bowl games coming down to the wire.  A good start to the bowl season, especially for the naysayers that say there are too many bowl games.  To be perfectly honest, I somewhat agree.  39 bowl games is a little much.  Saying that, it’s college football so I will watch as much of it as I can.  But there are always arguments as to why the amount of bowl games should be cut in half if not more.  I will try to dispel some of those arguments here:

• They are just glorified exhibition games.  This is somewhat true for the lesser bowl games.  However, watch how people are about the World Junior Hockey Championship tune-up games.  You’d think it was the gold medal game for a meaningless exhibition game but the stands will be packed and the ratings will be great and TSN (and to a lesser extent, Sportsnet) go gaga over them.  It’s stupid.  But people love hockey.  Just like people love college football.  So we can just put that argument in the dumpster.

• Attendance is so low for bowl games.  This only applies to a few bowl games.  Many of them get 30,000+ to attend with the average at almost 49,000.  The CFL would kill for these figures.  You don’t even want to know what the CIS would do to get within sniffing distance of those totals.  Also, how many FBS programs have less than a 30,000 average attendance for games?  Answer is 47 last season.  Out of just over 120.  That’s over a third of the teams.  And it’s amazing how many programs don’t even fill 70% of their stands.  So the attendance argument can go take a hike.

• Too many undeserving teams get to play what amounts to a postseason game.  I can give you this to an extent.  It gets a bit tiring to see 6-6 teams being eligible for bowl games.  However, if it was changed to 7 wins, many people would argue that is too low.  Baseball now has ten teams make their playoffs and may add more.  The NFL puts in 12 and almost surely will add more by 2016.  The NHL and NBA put just more than half in (16 out of 30).  The argument is a decent one but doesn’t hold water when compared to other sports leagues.

• It takes students away from the classrooms.  I don’t know where this argument came from but it is ridiculous.  First off, most of the action is on Christmas break from classes.  Secondly, wouldn’t that make the entire regular season difficult for student-athletes since they need to put a lot of time into practice as well as games?  And finally, at least at the FBS level, the players are treated somewhat like semi-pros as for what they have to do for the programs.  I won’t get into the compensation aspect here because there are way too many angles that could fill five different blog posts.  So toss that argument out the window.

• Ratings are low.  The biggest horseshit argument.  The NBA and NHL (at least in the States) don’t come close to the ratings that bowl games have, until those respective leagues get to their playoffs.  If TSN didn’t think it was worth broadcasting them (and same with Sportsnet in the past) then why the hell would they put them on?  Doesn’t make sense does it?  Other than the World Juniors, which is a ratings juggernaut, the bowl games rate quite favourably against other sports.

So there we go.  Arguments over.  I may be a tiny bit biased because I really enjoy watching college football.  The problem is if we start eliminating certain games (in all sports) that are deemed somewhat irrelevant then we’d be left with a lot less live sports to watch.  Then people would complain again.  I’ve determined that baseball and football (in the US) and hockey (in Canada) have been replaced as national pastimes by hate and complaining.

Anyway, enough of the rant.  On to recaps of the bowl games.  I said I would watch almost every minute of every bowl game in a previous post.  I lied.  That’s impossible unless I record games and re-watch them later.  I love the game but that’s too much for even me.

New Orleans Bowl: UL-Lafayette 16 Nevada 3 – Not the greatest game to start out.  Good crowd at the Superdome at least.  Helps that a Louisiana team was in it although I am sure the Ragin Cajuns are getting to the point where they would like to go elsewhere for bowl season.  Also, the chances that Mark Hudspeth gets a head coaching job in a better conference just went up considerably.  Don’t count him out for the Pitt position.

New Mexico Bowl: Utah State 21 UTEP 6 – Again, another good crowd which was helped by the proximity of one of the teams.  Plus UTEP almost never goes bowling so for their fans it is a real treat.  Sean Kugler had his chance to get his name out there for more prominent coaching positions and lost it (for now).  He’s still a hilarious interview and one day deserves a shot.  UTEP looked overmatched this entire game.  Something tells me USU was just toying with them in this one since they could easily beat every Group of Five team and many Power Five teams as well.

Las Vegas Bowl: Utah 45 Colorado State 10 – If it wasn’t for Brent Musburger in the booth, I probably wouldn’t have watched more than ten minutes of this one.  The Utes laid waste to Colorado State here.  I think CSU was just drained from a regular season that saw them come so close to going to a major bowl and then losing their head coach.  Hearing that the rest of the coaches were fired after the game was pretty bad form though.

Idaho Potato Bowl: Air Force 38 Western Michigan 24 – If there were any bowls that I have polarizing views on, it would be this one.  It might be considered the first bowl I would remove since they usually get two not-so-good teams.  On the other hand, it’s in Boise, which makes for crazy football weather which is awesome to watch.  This year they got one good team and one even better team.  These were arguably the two most improved teams in the country this season.  Expect big things from Western Michigan for sure next season as they were still a young team here.

Camellia Bowl: Bowling Green 33 South Alabama 28 – I lied.  Going into bowl season I would have considered this bowl a one-and-done affair.  Not after this game though.  Talk about exciting.  Canadian QB leading the Jags back and taking the lead late to the delight of a fairly big crowd in Montgomery.  Then first play from scrimmage after that, the Falcons go the length of the field for the winning TD.  Throw in Joey Jones, USA’s head coach, getting his nose busted in the middle of the fourth quarter and you had a pretty damn fun game to watch.  Would have been the best early bowl if it hadn’t been for…

Miami Beach Bowl: Memphis 55 BYU 48 (2OT) – This game is what bowl season is all about…except for the aftermath.  The game itself was fantastic unless you’re a fan of defensive football.  Playing at Marlins Ballpark was interesting and provided a different atmosphere that’s fun to watch.  The game was chippy at times but it felt like two ultra-competitive teams going toe-to-toe.  And it was.  I expect that out of BYU which always seems to have a chip on its shoulder.  It was great to see that passion out of Memphis though.  Too bad a fantastic game and great finish was marred by a huge brawl.  In football terms this was pretty bad.  Quite a bit of blood from what I saw.  This is where bowl games need to take a bit of a stand.  The organizers for the game should make it so BYU doesn’t get the automatic bid next season.  They should also find another conference to fill the other slot other than the American.  There is no need for this crap at the end of any sporting event.

Well I am looking forward to the next set of games.  Two today and two tomorrow.  Then starting Boxing Day it really kicks into gear.  Here’s hoping I can cram in enough college football to satiate me for the months when we don’t have any.