Most Important Games of the 2024 College Football Season and the Weekly Rankings

You excited? I’m excited. My shirt isn’t off though…yet.

It’s been a month since I have posted but it has felt like a lot longer. A lot has been happening on the personal side of things. You know that feeling. You look back at something and you realize it was only three weeks ago when it feels like it was three months ago. Kind of the opposite of COVID which feels like it happened a decade ago. Don’t even remind me of 2020 in sports. Ugh.

So, schedules are getting formulated, college football preview magazines are coming out, FBSchedules has released their helmet schedules…everything is starting to take shape for the next season of college football. Which can only mean one thing: my first 2024 college football season post is ready to be posted! That first post is always the most important games of the next season. This won’t be any different. And remember, this is not a definitive list. The broadcast information might not be correct. Hell, with TSN, we might not know until the night before because…well I honestly think in some ways they hate college football (or at least don’t understand it). So sit back, relax, have a pint (or a bit of scotch or a joint or whatever you like as long as it’s legal…or it doesn’t have to be, I don’t want to pry into your life) and let me start your guide to the 2024 season, Bossman-style. This means I won’t be nearly as thorough as Phil Steele nor have bright pictures like Lindy’s. Just the information you need…I think. Let’s go!

Of course we must first begin with the annual Weekly Rankings. I don’t know why I capitalized that. Anyway, every year I will go through the weeks and rank those weeks based on the quality of the games. And remember, just because one week has one or two potential Game of the Year candidates doesn’t mean it will be the highest quality week. It happens almost every year that a great game is the cherry on top of a shit sundae (so to speak). As for the weekly rankings this year, here they are (drumrolllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll):

1. Week 14 – November 30 (American Thanksgiving weekend)
2. Week 5 – September 28
3. Week 11 – November 9
4. Week 6 – October 5
5. Week 9 – October 26
6. Week 10 – November 2
7. Week 8 – October 19
8. Week 7 – October 12 (Canadian Thanksgiving weekend)
9. Week 13 – November 23
10. Week 4 – September 21
11. Week 3 – September 14
12. Week 12 – November 16
13. Week 2 – September 7
14. Week 1 – August 31 (Labour Day weekend)

14 weeks instead of 13. The way it’s meant to be. Cramming the whole schedule into 13 weeks never seems right to me. Let’s begin with what might be one of the worst Week 1s in recent memory although I think I have said that every year except two doing this blog. Clemson-UGA? Quite good. Notre Dame-TAMU? Still damn good. USC-LSU? Um, good but it’s neutral site so….Penn State-WVU? OK we are starting to head down a steep hill. And it just gets worse from there. For what amounts to a five-day college football smorgasbord, college football tends to not give a shit about showcasing the sport when they would probably have all the headlines. No NFL so no football competition. Instead, they trot out Colorado State-Texas and tell you “Yes this is a great mid-afternoon game.”

It’s at the top of the rankings where we see the biggest surprise. When’s the last time a week in September has been so high in these rankings? I’m not going to look back but I think it’s never. This is possibly the deepest week of the year. The top 10 games of the week would be on all the GOTW lists and the next seven or eight after that or quality matchups. When Wazzu-Boise is (in my rankings) the 21st best game of the week, you got something special going on.

Another surprise? SEC Sleepwalk Week is not the worst week or even the second-worst week. It’s ranked at #9! It actually is quite a good week and most teams do not go the FCS route in terms of scheduling on this week. Nice to see, going into the final week of the regular season which is almost always the best (on paper). The week before SEC Sleepwalk Week, however? Ugh. Not nearly as good but at least the idea of scheduling FCS teams in November has been decreased. Finally, someone in power read my blog! At least that’s what I am going to tell myself.

For the third year in a row I will abandon the week-to-week games and go with the Top 35 games of the 2024 college football season. As usual, here are some reminders:

• If the TV listing is correct, I will say it is confirmed.
• None of the TSN listings can be confirmed because it’s TSN.
• This is based on how teams finished last year and how teams are looking going into this year. I am no Phil Steele but I have a pretty good idea that, for example, Ole Miss will be better than Vanderbilt.
• Speaking of Vanderbilt and all other teams that would be outside the preseason Top 20, there is ALWAYS at least one team that creeps into the Top 10 from way outside that is a complete shocker. Take Louisville and Missouri last season. Two teams that were expected to go bowling and not much else. They took their 40000-to-1 national championship odds and made a few teams sweat into high finishes, both going 10-2 in the regular season. This meant that late in the year they would get one or two higher profile timeslots than they would have normally got. I try to predict what teams those may be but usually get them wrong so expect this list to not be perfect.

Now that we are done with the yearly reminders, let us commence.

1. Ohio State at Oregon (Week 7, 7:30, NBC) – Some might be a bit surprised at this being the top pick considering the other high profile rivalry games available. Both of these teams are serious national title contenders and should both be in the newly-expanded College Football Playoff at the end of the season. Also, this is now a conference game. Huge stakes. Now, with the expanded playoff, a loss here (on its own) is not enough to kill either team’s CFP chances.
2. Georgia at Alabama (Week 5, 7:30, ABC, confirmed) – This is what I am talking about when it comes to Week 5. A huge September matchup that never would have happened before now. Now this doesn’t mean I want ever-increasing conference sizes because they are already beyond ridicuous. Honestly, football should have broken off with their conferences so that other sports could continue their more logical, regional conference setups. Anyway, this is another game where a loss doesn’t kill CFP chances but could shape who gets to the conference championship which is now just #1 vs. #2 in all conferences not called the Sun Belt.
3. Texas at Michigan (Week 2, Noon, FOX, confirmed) – This will probably have national championship implications and is one of the massive early season games. If this game was in, say, Week 11, it probably falls farther down the list. We shall now see how the Horns deal with a much tougher conference schedule to go along with games like this one. We shall also now see if the Wolverines, sans Harbaugh, McCarthy, Corum and a host of others are still national title contenders.
4. Ohio State at Penn State (Week 10, Noon, FOX) – FOX might be jerking the Nittany Lions around here. This feels tailor-made for a huge State College Whiteout Game or, at the very least, a huge timeslot. You would think that would mean FOX would have selected this game by now but they haven’t. It’s fairly obvious they are waiting to see if PSU (and maybe even tOSU) are in the Top 10 by this point. If they aren’t, don’t be surprised if FOX allows this to go to NBC in primetime.
5. Georgia at Ole Miss (Week 11, 7:30, ABC/TSN+) – This is almost a shoo-in for the ABC primetime game for Week 11. And isn’t it weird to see an SEC game in this spot? I have to get used to this. Also, it made predicting the schedule a huge crapshoot because of this and all the other changes to where conferences are having their games air. Anyway, many believe Ole Miss is the team that could rock the apple cart and make it very difficult for the blue bloods that normally dot the Top 10. This being a late-season game should cause huge movement at the top of the CFP rankings no matter the result.
6. Oregon at Michigan (Week 10, 7:30, NBC) – If you look at the tOSU-PSU game two spots above, you will now understand the other game FOX would be looking at. I don’t totally blame them but I am surprised a game of the magnitude above would be kept waiting. Anyway, yet another Wolverine prove-it game in this one and by this point we will know if the Ducks are for real (I think they will be).
7. Michigan at Ohio State (Week 14, Noon, FOX, confirmed) – The Big Ten, once they get to conference play, is going to be huge almost every week now. Thing is, this is now not the most important game on the schedule anymore. It’s still unclear how good Big Blue will be and the Buckeyes have a couple of games that many would deem more important. Plus, there is a good possibility everyone will know if one, or both, of these teams are destined for the College Football Playoff or not by this point.
8. Alabama at LSU (Week 11, Noon, TSN5) – Hey, remember when this game was always CBS’s pick for their sole SEC primetime game? Good times. Now it is…”relegated” to a spot much lower on the card. There is a possibility they may put this on in primetime if the Tigers are really good but I think they will end up in a Noon timeslot considering UGA-Ole Miss is the same day. Also, LSU has to be considered a notch below the four teams I have already listed above them. Going to be tough sledding for them to get to the SEC Championship.
9. Georgia at Texas (Week 8, 7:30, ABC) – A lot of competition for that ABC primetime spot but we have to expect that out of the fourteen weeks, the SEC will get at least nine of them. With this game competing against, for the most part, two other SEC games this week, expect this one to get the nod. This will be the Longhorns’ biggest SEC test of the season and if they can pull off the win, they can signal that they didn’t come to the Ess-Eee-Cee to get a big fat paycheque and a 4-4 conference record.
10. Florida State at Notre Dame (Week 11, 7:30, NBC, confirmed) – Hey, the first appearance of Notre Dame on this list. And the first ACC school! It really is true. We are in a Power 2 world. Ugh. With all the SEC and Big Ten teams having to beat each other up, there is a very real possibility these two teams essentially run right up the middle and are very highly ranked at the end of the season. Just a reminder here before we go too much farther that the Irish are ineligible for a first-round bye in the new College Football Playoff because only conference champions can inhabit those four spots.
11. Missouri at Alabama (Week 9, 7:30, ABC) – Yeah no one would have thought this would even be on this list at all last year at this time. Mizzou had an amazing season and there’s not a lot that says they won’t be just as good this year. Look, we have to bring up the elephant in the room: with the changes at Bama, could the Tide finish, God forbid, 5th in the SEC? SIXTH? Who knows? But it could happen so we better be prepared for it.
12. Tennessee at Georgia (Week 12, 7:30, ABC/TSN2) – They say Good Ol’ Rocky Top. But it hasn’t been often that they have said Great Ol’ Rocky Top. I think most Vols fans are hoping new quarterback Nico Iamaleava can just get this team into the CFP. If that happens, you never know what will follow. Also, I am starting to wonder how many ABC primetime games are going to appear on this list. We are already at five.
13. Texas at Texas A&M (Week 14, 7:30, ABC) – No dodging the Aggies now, Texas! It’s hilarious that this was even considered a thing for years (although I am sure that during some of Texas’ down years they did avoid the Aggies). But this year, it happens. On the final day of the regular season. I am hoping that there are high stakes for this game and that it is the final ABC primetime game of the season (we’re at six). The ratings would be through the fucking roof.
14. Ole Miss at LSU (Week 7, 7:30, ABC) – Yet another one on ABC in primetime (on my list…that makes seven). Finally, two teams that aren’t named Georgia, Alabama or Texas. Look, I’m not one of those SEC morons who think SEC everything is the greatest thing ever but let’s be honest: the SEC is now fucking stacked and they are going to have at least half the games on this list.
15. Alabama at Oklahoma (Week 13, 7:30, ABC/TSN2) – Number eight. The first appearance of Oklahoma. They just haven’t been really good for a few years now. Doesn’t feel weird anymore to say “Yeah, the Sooners are going into 2024 as about the seventh best team in the SEC.” Much like their former Big XII brethren down in Austin, the Sooners need to at least show up for games like this because if they don’t there will be a lot of doubters and haters the entire year.
16. Clemson vs. Georgia (in Atlanta) (Week 1, Noon, ABC/TSN2, partially confirmed) – I don’t know if I should rank this game this high. Dabo bringing in absolutely nobody through the transfer portal because of some weird motto he prescribes to is so ridiculous. He is going to run himself out of town if he doesn’t at least try with the transfer portal. It’s like watching everyone just go online to read this blog and this one guy goes “Nah, I will stick with my dial-up modem” where it takes him about 24 minutes just to upload this post. By the way, ABC is confirmed, TSN2 obviously not.
17. Notre Dame at Texas A&M (Week 1, 7:30, ABC/TSN2, partially confirmed) – Another game that is confirmed for ABC but TSN will confirm it about 27 minutes before gametime. Look, the Irish have a fairly easy schedule by Notre Dame standards. Seeing them go 10-2 would not be a shock at all and 11-1 is not off the table.
18. USC at Michigan (Week 4, 3:30, CBS, confirmed) – God this feels bizarre. We have to wait until the eighteenth most important game for CBS to appear on the list? Ugh, this feels wrong. Soon enough I will get used to it but CBS not showing many of the best games will feel off, at least for 2024. Both teams will probably need this early conference game to get themselves in contention for the College Football Playoff. Remember, the Pac-12 teams that moved to the B1G that don’t make the CFP will go to Pac-12 tie-in bowl games. I thought it was tough normally to predict bowl matchups. This will be more difficult than learning advanced trigonometric functions using the Cyrillic alphabet.
19. Oklahoma vs. Texas (in Dallas) (Week 7, 3:30, ABC/TSN+, time confirmed) – The amount of Sooner and Longhorn fans that are pissed off that the Red River Shootout is not at Noon has to be in the tens of thousands at this point, easily. Sounds like the State Fair of Texas is in a place that becomes a level in Grand Theft Auto come sundown so I can understand why people would be apprehensive about the game being played later in the afternoon. I think many also are too tethered to tradition and can’t comprehend their favourite convenience store closing let alone this rivalry game not being played at 11 local time.
20. Alabama at Tennessee (Week 8, 3:30, ABC/TSN2) – OK yeah this list is seriously SEC-heavy. I kind of don’t like this. There’s almost too much change in college football from year to year. Hell, I don’t even want Bama to lose as much as I used to. Nick Saban is gone. The conference is seriously stacked and there are no divisions. The Tide aren’t the de facto favourites going in and I am sure many think they won’t be in the SEC Championship. This is like how I feel about the New England Patriots now.
21. Clemson at Florida State (Week 6, 7:30, ABC/TSN+) – The ACC champion will, most likely, get the #3 seed and a first round bye in the CFP. I mean it’s good that the Big Ten and SEC won’t get all four byes but still. At least these two teams don’t have to worry nearly as much about the newcomers. Like the Noles aren’t saying “Oooooh, how are we going to be able to handle Stanford?”
22. LSU at Texas A&M (Week 9, 7:00, TSN2) – I am interested to see what Mike Elko can do at College Station. I would laugh if he took the Aggies to the CFP in his first season after all the hype Jimbo Fisher got. If Mizzou or (somehow) Bama aren’t really good, this game could potentially be the ABC primetime game.
23. Iowa at Ohio State (Week 6, 3:30, CBS) – I don’t think there is a cap on the amount of appearances on CBS like the SEC had in previous years. Luckily, with BIG NOON SATURDAY ON FOX in the mix, I can’t see a team making more than three or four appearances on CBS. But if that happens, I wonder if it will start to erode Gary Danielson’s love for all things Alabama Crimson Tide football.
24. Oklahoma at Ole Miss (Week 9, Noon, TSN1) – Ya know, TSN struggles to put out their World Juniors schedule early which to me is unfathomable. It’s their signature event and they can’t even figure out the broadcast schedule before like mid-December. Who the fuck is in charge of scheduling at TSN (if that is even a position)? This game marks the point where I am thinking there are too many SEC games on this list. Other conferences need love too, no?
25. Arizona at Utah (Week 5, 9:00, TSN+/specialty pack) – Hey, the first game on the specialty pack. Oh, and the first game from the Big XII. Also, for fuck’s sake, the dreaded three-hour broadcast window. Just a reminder, I am basing most of my info on what the schedules looked like last year and any announcements that have come out up until now about game times. ESPN liked to do these stupid 6:00/9:00 windows and there’s nothing saying it won’t continue. The only difference is I don’t see it being an SEC doubleheader. Anyway, these two teams, along with Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State, will be the Big XII favourites this season.
26. Oregon at Wisconsin (Week 12, 7:30, NBC) – I am still a bit confused as to what the order of selection for the Big Ten games are. I believe FOX has first choice (if they want to take it), then it would be NBC, then CBS, then FOX afternoon and evening, FS1, then BTN gets the scraps. Saying that, I saw a list of predicted NBC night games and saw Oregon-Wisconsin on it so I moved it there even though it feels like a tailor-made BIG NOON SATURDAY game (especially since the next best choices are tOSU-Northwestern and Rutgers-Maryland). Not that I totally hate the 12-day hold for games (I hate 6-day holds) but I wish we knew more of the schedule before the season began, not just the first three weeks and bits of the rest of the season. OK, rant over.
27. Penn State at USC (Week 7, 3:30, CBS) – I would have put this as a late-night FOX game. Think of the ratings! Also, it would be great for us lunatics who stay up to watch as much as we can, including the Hawaii Test.
28. Washington at Oregon (Week 14, 7:30, NBC) – First Big Ten conference game for these two could be huge, especially for the Ducks who many feel could be true national title contenders. It’s interesting to see the two national finalists coming back and possibly not even being preseason Top 10 teams. Has that happened before?
29. Arizona at Kansas State (Week 3, Friday, 8:00, FOX, confirmed) – First Friday night FOX game on this list. I love the fact that FOX is now doing this. Could get some big games in pretty much a national spotlight. The Big XII will have to almost hope one team breaks out or otherwise you might have a war of attrition inside the conference that could leave them without a first-round bye in the CFP.
30. Oklahoma at Missouri (Week 11, 7:00, TSN+/specialty pack) – Now the shoe is on the other foot as Boomer Sooner is the newcomer and Mizzou is one of the veterans hoping to put a beating on the new kid on the block, especially after what Oklahoma did for years to the Tigers back in the Big XII (and the Big 8 before that).
31. Notre Dame at USC (Week 14, 3:30, CBS) – Will either of these teams be playing for a shot to be among the chosen twelve in this game? That will be the ultimate question for quite a few teams during this week. Yes, I agree that it takes the excitement out of some of the games but it will put excitement in other games. It remains to be seen if the final week of the regular season is still as exciting as it was in 2023 or back in 2013 during the final year of the BCS or in 1997, the last year of the Bowl Coalition/Alliance.
32. Florida State at Miami (Week 9, 3:30, TSN+/specialty pack) – The ACC may be ripe for the picking this year. And before the next set of realignment (and it will come in the next five years), being a really good football program is going to help you get to the next level if you aren’t in the current Power 2. The Hurricanes have been almost a forgotten entity since they joined the ACC, which essentially started the downfall of the Big East. The ACC thought that FSU and the Canes would be locks to play in a bunch of conference championships and it never happened. That opportunity could be closing very soon so this might be the year, regardless of who loses here, where this could happen.
33. Utah at Oklahoma State (Week 4, 7:30, ABC/TSN+) – One of the very few ABC Primetime games that I think won’t go to the SEC, this is part of a trio (with the other two Big XII games on this list) of the most important conference games of the season. Will the new Big XII be fun to watch? Absolutely. Will it produce one incredible champion? Eh….I don’t know about that.
34. Liberty at Appalachian State (Week 5, Noon, TSN+/specialty pack) – Finally we get to what could very well end up being the most important Group of Five game of the season. These are two of the favourites to get what will probably end up being the one spot for the G-5 in the twelve-team playoff. Winner here probably gets the upper hand where you can handle one blemish on the record but two would probably be too much.
35. Washington State at Oregon State (Week 13, 6:30, CW, confirmed) – You may laugh but if one of these teams goes on a heater, what does it mean? Technically, they are the Pac-12 conference even with two teams. Technically, the best record would be a conference champion. They won’t get an automatic spot in the playoff but could a 10-2 record from the Beavs or Wazzu be enough to get in? It is a possibility as both teams looked pretty good last year. And one of these teams being in contention for a playoff spot could make it so The Committee has a very tough decision to make.

Alright there you go. The journey has commenced! Top 35 games in the bag. The next post will outline some other game lists that yours truly has come up with. I know it’s still 78 days until the start of the season but it will get here before you know it. I can feel it. You want to know how I can feel it? I bought my first preseason publication of the year (Lindy’s) and, just like clockwork, when I purchased it I felt the person at the cash was judging me. Buying a magazine in a bookstore? That’s crazy, right? Anyway, you all have a great weekend!

Rankings: The Season Finale. Also, bowl projections!

Yeah you’re gonna get like 20 sets of projections before everything is finalized so buckle up, friends.

This will be the last set of rankings I do since doing them after conference championship weekend makes no sense. I’m already doing a bowl projection post every couple hours. Adding rankings on to it is pointless. So, the season finale of the Bossman Top 25!

#1	Georgia
#2	Michigan
#3	TCU
#4	USC
#5	Ohio State
#6	Tennessee
#7	Alabama
#8	Penn State
#9	Utah
#10	Washington
#11	Clemson
#12	Kansas State
#13	Florida State
#14	LSU
#15	Oregon State
#16	Oregon
#17	Tulane
#18	UCLA
#19	South Carolina
#20	Notre Dame
#21	Texas
#22	UCF
#23	Troy
#24	North Carolina
#25	Cincinnati

It seems like this is pretty close to what’s actually happening with the College Football Playoff rankings. And I didn’t need a stupid show to announce them. I had debated putting Michigan at #1 but can’t with their shit schedule and an honestly down Big Ten conference. I know ESPN would fucking LOVE it if Bama made it into the College Football Playoff but I believe they shouldn’t even be ranked ahead of Tennessee and that’s why I have them at #7. Honestly, they shouldn’t get there, even if both TCU and USC lose. I have a feeling my opinion is not shared by The Committee.

Oh I need a cliffhanger since it’s the season finale. OK how about this: some teams get so pissed off at The Committee’s rankings that they threaten to leave to form their own division. Yeah, that sounds good.

OK now I can get to the bowl projections. This is the last set before Saturday when I start doing them on a far-too-often basis as things change by the half hour it seems. Let us being with the College Football Playoff:

Fiesta Bowl	CFP #2 vs. CFP #3	Michigan vs. TCU
Peach Bowl	CFP #1 vs. CFP #4	Georgia vs. USC

The question remains: Who here can be pushed out of the Top 4? Michigan and Georgia seem to be locked in, even if they lose their conference championship games. TCU and USC, on the other hand, are still on relatively shaky ground. Either team loses their respective conference championship, expect a huge groundswell of people to want either Ohio State or Alabama to replace them. I guess if both the Horned Frogs and Trojans lose, you have to have the conversation but if only one loses…oof that is going to spark some serious controversy.

Rose Bowl	Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1	Ohio State vs. Washington
Cotton Bowl	CFP at-large vs. G-5 #1	Penn State vs. Tulane
Sugar Bowl	SEC #1 vs. Big XII #1	Alabama vs. Kansas State
Orange Bowl	ACC #1 vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC	North Carolina vs. Tennessee

I’m sure you’ll look at this and see one really odd team. So let’s get right to the elephant in the room…yes, I think Penn State will get to the Cotton Bowl. I know there could be a few teams that would fill that spot just as good as the Nittany Lions but I am going with Penn State to be there when it’s all said and done.

Oh….OH! You thought I meant North Carolina? Well I have a feeling that Drake Maye is going to light up the Clemson defense and the Tar Heels will pull off the upset of Clemson. That would relegate Clemson into the rest of the bowl games, which wouldn’t sit well with Dabo Swinney I’m sure.

Alright, finally time for the rest of the projected bowl matchups.

Citrus Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	LSU vs. Purdue
ReliaQuest Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	Ole Miss vs. Maryland
Music City Bowl	SEC vs. Big Ten	South Carolina vs. Illinois
Gator Bowl	SEC vs. ACC	Florida vs. NC State
Arizona Bowl	MWC vs. MAC	Wyoming vs. Ohio
Sun Bowl	ACC vs. Pac-12	Florida State vs. Oregon State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl	Big Ten vs. ACC	Iowa vs. Notre Dame
Alamo Bowl	Big XII vs. Pac-12	Texas vs. Oregon
Cheez-It Bowl	Big XII vs. ACC	Oklahoma vs. Clemson
Pinstripe Bowl	Big XII vs. ACC	Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh
Texas Bowl	SEC vs. Big XII	Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma State
Holiday Bowl	ACC vs. Pac-12	Duke vs. UCLA
Liberty Bowl	SEC vs. Big XII	Kentucky vs. Texas Tech
Military Bowl	ACC vs. AAC	Syracuse vs. UCF
Guaranteed Rate Bowl	Big Ten vs. Big XII	Wisconsin vs. Baylor
Birmingham Bowl	SEC vs. AAC/ACC/C-USA	Missouri vs. Memphis
First Responder Bowl	Two of AAC, Big XII, C-USA, Sun Belt, MWC	Kansas vs. SMU
Camellia Bowl	Sun Belt vs. MAC/C-USA	South Alabama vs. North Texas
Quick Lane Bowl	Big Ten vs. MAC	UConn vs. Buffalo
Hawaii Bowl	BYU/AAC/C-USA vs. MAC	Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State
Independence Bowl	AAC vs. Army	Houston vs. Army
Gasparilla Bowl	Two of AAC, ACC, SEC, Pac-12	East Carolina vs. Louisville
Armed Forces Bowl	Two of Big XII, C-USA, AAC	WKU vs. BYU
New Orleans Bowl	Sun Belt vs. C-USA	Southern Miss vs. UTSA
Boca Raton Bowl	Two of AAC, Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC	Marshall vs. New Mexico State
Idaho Potato Bowl	MWC vs. MAC	Air Force vs. Bowling Green
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Two of AAC, Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC	Troy vs. Liberty
Frisco Bowl	Two from Group of Five	Utah State vs. Georgia Southern
Las Vegas Bowl	SEC vs. Pac-12	Arkansas vs. Washington State
LendingTree Bowl	Sun Belt vs. MAC/C-USA	Coastal Carolina vs. Toledo
LA Bowl	Pac-12 vs. MWC	Utah vs. Boise State
New Mexico Bowl	MWC vs. AAC/C-USA/MAC	Fresno State vs. Eastern Michigan
Fenway Bowl	ACC vs. AAC	Wake Forest vs. Cincinnati
Cure Bowl	Two from Group of Five	San Jose State vs. Louisiana
Bahamas Bowl	C-USA vs. MAC	UAB vs. Miami-OH

The Bahamas and Hawaii Bowls are already set. The Bahamas Bowl is always set around conference championship time because the teams have to make sure everyone that is going to the islands have their passports and that takes time. As for the Hawaii Bowl, I have no idea. But if you just look at it from a bowl destination standpoint, that’s a much better place to go than, say, Shreveport.

Oh one thing before I continue, I had one of the tie-ins wrong this entire season. The SEC sends a team every other year to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. In the off years they send a team to Las Vegas Bowl. I had them with tie-ins to both. I have fixed that. Maybe this way I won’t always run out of SEC teams before they come close to filling their tie-ins.

OK, on to the bowl eligibility fiasco of sorts. There are 82 bowl spots. 41 bowl games. As of right now, 79 teams are bowl-eligible. Three spots remain. This is where things get a little complicated. Let’s go through this one-by-one:

• Buffalo hosts Akron on Friday. This is the make-up game after Snowpocalypse hit the area a couple weeks back. The Bulls win, they are bowl-eligible. I have them winning and becoming Team #80.
• New Mexico State was supposed to play San Jose State over a month ago. Unfortunately, the tragic death of SJSU’s Camdan McWright meant the game was cancelled. With the way the schedules were, it couldn’t be played. The Spartans won’t play this week because they are already bowl-eligible and want to rest. That’s very fair. The Aggies have been able to schedule a game with FCS Valparaiso. The Aggies should win and if they get a waiver they would become bowl-eligible even with two wins over FCS opponents. I think this all happens and they become Team #81.
• Army is 5-6. I have them beating Navy. Here’s the thing though: they have two wins over FCS opponents and the Army-Navy game is AFTER all the bowl games are set out. So my guess is they are Team #82 and if they lose, then we get some chaos. A bit.
• Appalachian State is 6-6 with two wins over FCS opponents. If they ask for a waiver and get it AND they need a bowl-eligible team, they would be next in line.
• James Madison is on this list because the NCAA is, as always, a fucked up organization that makes money by accident. Since they are a transitional team, they can’t win a conference or go to a bowl. Even if they are good. Which JMU has been this year. Normally I would say it has to do with an easier schedule but that’s not really the case. They won 2 games over FCS opponents but had a regular Sun Belt conference schedule and ran roughshod over a lot of teams, including Coastal Carolina. Them only having 11 games is more of an issue in my opinion. But for people saying they should have scheduled another game, why? They already knew their fate was pretty much sealed. Anyway, if they applied for a waiver and it was accepted they would have to wait to see if the NCAA chose them or a team off the APR list (which I will explain in the next point).
• Next up is the APR list. APR stands for Academic Progress Rate. Not necessarily a metric on how “smart” a school is but how well schools are graduating their athletes. So a school like Stanford, which is a tough academic school, might not graduate as many football players (as a percentage) as, say, ULM which has far less stringent academic entrance criteria but may graduate more of their students. Anyway, here is the list:
  • Rice
  • UNLV
  • Auburn
  • Michigan State
• The rest don’t matter because it will never get to those schools. If there aren’t enough bowl-eligible teams, Rice would be given first choice to accept an offer. Then UNLV, Auburn and, finally, Michigan State. I don’t think it will get to these teams but it can if some of the things that happened above don’t happen. Plus, there are rumours abound that UNLV, after inexplicably firing Marcus Arroyo after the best season since 2013 under Bobby Hauck, would reject a bowl offer even if it got to them on the APR list.

Did you get all that? That needs to be a college class. I’m sure the failure rate would still be about 50%.

Alright, I won’t update this until sometime on Saturday since, chances are, nothing much will happen until then. I doubt I will be on Twitter until later in the day on Saturday. Then Sunday it will be all day, going over the bowl games as they get filled. Going to be a busy weekend. Enjoy the rest of your week everyone!

Four? Eight? Twelve? Sixteen?

I’m sure some would love to go to 24 teams like FCS.  Honestly?  Fuck that.  But expansion is coming and we know it.  Could be here as early as the 2023 season so the graphic above will only make sense for this season and possibly next and that’s it, that’s all.  The new era of college football truly begins (regardless of what happens in realignment).

But for now we stick with the way things are meaning it’s bowl projection time!  I can now take all I’ve done over the past few weeks and wrap it up in a nice, neat, little package.  OK maybe neat is too strong a word.  I’m sure it will be somewhat messy.  And you won’t agree with all the choices.  Oh well, it is what it is.

Let’s get right to it and start with the College Football Playoff matchups.  If you read all the conference preview posts (every single one, right?) you have a good idea who’s here.  Remember, the rankings I have here are the rankings I believe these teams will be going into the bowl season.  Most of the time I have hit pretty well on these picks although I have had some real stinkers like picking Michigan State when they went 3-9.  So yeah it’s not all good for ol’ Bossman:

December 31st	Orange Bowl	#2 Alabama	#3 Ohio State
December 31st	Cotton Bowl	#1 Oklahoma	#4 North Carolina

First of all, ugh.  New Year’s Eve semi-final games.  I’m sure most will hate this.  Bama was an easy pick as everyone would have them #1 for the season but with one loss they would get in at #2.  Most have Oklahoma as well and I have them running the table to this point so makes sense to have them #1.  Ohio State should outlast their Big Ten foes and with only one loss as well they should easily slot in to #3 and a huge matchup with the Tide out in Miami.  And at #4….not Clemson!  This is probably the Tar Heels’ best shot at winning the ACC.  Clemson has a new quarterback and UNC has a Heisman hopeful in Sam Howell.  Despite the Tigers running the table and heading into the conference championships at #1, their loss would do enough to harm them and move them down the rankings.  Plus it would look really shitty on The Committee if they kept Clemson above Mack Brown’s boys after a conference title game loss.  North Carolina should be #5 going into the ACC Championship and I think The Committee will do the right thing after a Heels win.  Yes, Clemson fans will scream bloody murder but to no avail.  It’s about time they learn how to lose (somewhat) again after so many years at the top.

Now we get the New Year’s Six with three of those four games actually on New Year’s Day (why couldn’t the other one have been on New Year’s Eve?):

January 1st	Sugar Bowl	#11 Texas A&M	#9 Iowa State
January 1st	Rose Bowl	#14 Wisconsin	#8 USC
January 1st	Fiesta Bowl	#6 Notre Dame	#10 Washington
December 30th	Peach Bowl	#5 Clemson	#7 Cincinnati

Cue the debates.  As is usually the case, the top 11 ranked teams will head to the CFP or NY6.  Georgia will not get in after, once again, losing the SEC Championship to Alabama.  I see Georgia falling to #12, just below the Aggies, who will sneak into the New Year’s Six, still probably seething from Texas coming to the SEC.  Cincinnati actually won’t be the undefeated Group of Five team this season.  Coastal Carolina will be but the Bearcats’ schedule is quite difficult whereas the Chanticleers’ schedule, not so much.  Therefore, it’s an easy choice for Cincy to be well in the Top 10 and heading to Atlanta.  Notre Dame has, yet again, a brutal schedule but will navigate enough of it to be clearly a Top 10 team and have their shot out in the desert to win a New Year’s Six bowl game.  Iowa State finishes at #9 and could end up with their best finish ever (again) with a win over the Aggies in New Orleans.  USC and Washington will both get in probably no matter the result of the Pac-12 Championship.

And then we have the Big Ten runner-up, the 14th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers.  The Big Ten is contractually obligated to send a team to the Rose Bowl unless the Rose is a College Football Playoff semi-final.  The Badgers luck out with Iowa and Georgia losing in their respective conference championships as Wisky sits at home and watches.  Let’s be honest: this isn’t all that bad.  Better than having a team that’s ranked like #20 getting into a prestigious bowl game because of stupid bowl tie-ins.  That issue goes away for the most part with the 12-team playoff but then a different problem comes up.  You think being #13 or #14 and missing out on the New Year’s Six rankles the fans?   Wait until the #13 team misses out on the CFP.  Their fans will be livid for sure.  Good times.

Now for the rest of my predicted bowl matchups:

January 4th	Texas Bowl	#12 Georgia	Iowa
January 1st	Citrus Bowl	#19 Florida	#16 Penn State
January 1st	Outback Bowl	Auburn	Indiana
December 31st	Sun Bowl	Virginia Tech	#22 Utah
December 31st	Gator Bowl	#24 Ole Miss	#17 Miami
December 30th	Las Vegas Bowl	#25 Northwestern	#15 Oregon
December 30th	Arizona Bowl	Boise State	Ball State
December 30th	Redbox Bowl	Nebraska	#20 Arizona State
December 30th	Music City Bowl	#18 LSU	Michigan
December 30th	Duke’s Mayo Bowl	Kentucky	Wake Forest
December 29th	Alamo Bowl	#21 Texas	UCLA
December 29th	Cheez-It Bowl	#23 TCU	Boston College
December 29th	Pinstripe Bowl	Minnesota	Pittsburgh
December 29th	Fenway Bowl	UTSA	Memphis
December 28th	Guaranteed Rate Bowl	Tennessee	Oklahoma State
December 28th	Holiday Bowl	NC State	California
December 28th	Liberty Bowl	Missouri	West Virginia
December 28th	First Responder Bowl	Houston	Liberty
December 28th	Birmingham Bowl	Arkansas	UCF
December 27th	Military Bowl	Florida State	Eastern Michigan
December 27th	Quick Lane Bowl	Rice	Ohio
December 25th	Camellia Bowl	Louisiana	Buffalo
December 24th	Hawaii Bowl	Tulsa	Hawaii
December 23rd	Union Home Mortgage Bowl	Mississippi State	SMU
December 22nd	Armed Forces Bowl	Army	Baylor
December 21st	Frisco Bowl	Air Force	Texas State
December 21st	Idaho Potato Bowl	San Jose State	Toledo
December 20th	Myrtle Beach Bowl	Western Michigan	#13 Coastal Carolina
December 18th	New Orleans Bowl	Appalachian State	Florida Atlantic
December 18th	LA Bowl	Stanford	Nevada
December 18th	LendingTree Bowl	Kansas State	Central Michigan
December 18th	Independence Bowl	BYU	UAB
December 18th	New Mexico Bowl	Wyoming	Louisiana Tech
December 18th	Boca Raton Bowl	San Diego State	Southern Miss
December 17th	Cure Bowl	New Mexico	FIU
December 17th	Bahamas Bowl	Marshall	Kent State

Fenway Bowl!  LA Bowl!!! And they added the Myrtle Beach Bowl last year.  And now with the new 12-team playoff on the horizon there may be downsizing.  Hilarious.  At least Canadians can see most of the bowl games as per usual.  Well, as long as the specialty packs cooperate.  Here’s some notes on the wacky fun-time bowl season predictions:

• I have three games predicted between ranked teams: Florida-Penn State in the Citrus, Ole Miss-Miami in the Gator, & Northwestern-Oregon in the Las Vegas.  Really good games that you honestly would rarely get to see.  This is really what bowl season always used to be about (at least on the field).
• I’m not even bothering with showing you which tie-ins couldn’t be satisfied or which bowls have teams with 5-7 records (there are a few).  Trying to decipher how bowl season will shape up is difficult as is going into December.  Imagine how difficult (or near impossble) it is to do now.  Showing you all that info doesn’t matter much to be honest.
• Some of the better matchups include:
  • the three ranked-on-ranked matchups mentioned above
  • Auburn-Indy in the Outback Bowl
  • Georgia-Iowa in the Texas Bowl
  • BYU-UAB in the Independence Bowl
  • Louisiana-Buffalo in the Camellia Bowl
  • Texas-UCLA in the Alamo Bowl
  • Virginia Tech-Utah in the Sun Bowl
• Now, the naming rights to the Arizona Bowl has gone to Barstool Sports.  Interesting and not totally surprising.  What is surprising is that it won’t air on regular television as far as I know.  It will, as of this point, air on Barstool Sports’ website (which you would need to pay to see the game I believe).  That’s the weird part and I wonder what kind of viewership they will get.  Then again it is the Arizona Bowl so it’s not like they were getting a ton of viewers to begin with having it air on CBS Sports Network in the past.

The College Football Playoff semi-final games should actually both be good for once.  Bama-tOSU should be a classic with the Tide pulling out the win.  The other one should also be relatively close but the Sooners will finally get their semi-final win and their first berth in the national championship in the playoff era.  But the winning streak will end in the national championship as I have Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide winning their second straight championship and their third in five seasons.

Next up is the post where I actually make some pretty good predictions: the Coaching Hot Seat Report.  After that is a post I always do horrifically bad at for some reason, the Heisman Predictions.  After that I might as well do some NFL predictions which are also historically kinda bad.  We are 26 days away from the start of the college football season but at least now we have some actual football on the horizon to get us in the football watching mood…not that I usually need that but watching live football is gonna feel great after over six months of none.  And soon enough I will have a schedule up for Week Zero.  Will be interesting to see what ends up going to the specialty pack and if the specialty pack even starts that day.  Wouldn’t surprise me if they didn’t.  Why?  Because fuck you that’s why.  Enjoy your Civic Holiday if you are actually celebrating it (by being civic-minded I guess).

Get ready for Clemson-Alabama V: Collision Course

Oh and other bowl games and stuff.  But yeah.  CLEMSON AND BAMA Y’ALL!

Alright it’s bowl projection time.  I would say postseason projections but I am not including conference championship games since those are technically also postseason games.  Yet the Army/Navy Game, which is after the conference championship games, is still a regular season.  College football ladies and gentlemen!  Anyway, most of these games are on when the World Juniors are on and they are games that many say they won’t watch because there’s too many bowl games.  Who cares.  It’s college football so I will watch it.

Let us begin with the College Football Playoff matchups.  I think you have a good idea of who will go here if you have read all the conference previews (and you did, RIGHT?).  Remember, the rankings I have here are the rankings I believe these teams will be going into the bowl season.  I know some will be very wrong but I am hoping to hit on most and I have a feeling the CFP is a good start on my behalf:

December 28th	Fiesta Bowl	#2 Oklahoma	#3 Alabama
December 28th	Peach Bowl	#1 Clemson	#4 Michigan

Two of these were automatics.  Bama and Clemson are easy picks since everyone (and I do mean everyone) is selecting those two for the CFP.  Now yes I don’t have Bama undefeated but they will win the SEC and that will be enough.  I think Oklahoma gets in as the Big XII champ after running the table.  Their schedule is not THAT difficult for a Power Five team so other than a couple games (Texas, Iowa State) they shouldn’t have much of a problem.  Finally, yes….BIG BLUE!  This could be Jim Harbaugh’s best chance to win the Big Ten…or even the Big Ten East.  Ohio State has a new head coach and a new starting quarterback.  Michigan State will drop a game or two they really shouldn’t.  Penn State also will have some growing pains with a new quarterback.  Really, the Wolverines will do enough and win the Big Ten Championship which will have them high enough .  I have Michigan losing one conference game but it won’t be to tOSU!  It will be to Penn State.  Other than that, I think Michigan has the schedule and the team to run the table (including beating the Buckeyes) and then winning the Big Ten title over Nebraska.  Now this won’t be easy as the #5 team will give them a run for their money but I will discuss that below.

This leads us to the New Year’s Six where only two of the four games are actually on New Year’s Day (who said college football had to make sense?):

January 1st	Sugar Bowl	#6 Georgia	#11 Texas
January 1st	Rose Bowl	#8 Ohio State	#5 Utah
December 30th	Orange Bowl	#13 Syracuse	#7 Notre Dame
December 28th	Cotton Bowl	#9 Washington	#10 Memphis

I can see some debate here with these picks, as per usual.  The top 11 teams will go to either the CFP or the NY6 so that is pretty much on par with a lot of people and with CFP history.  Georgia will get in after losing their conference championship to Bama.  They should be high enough in the rankings that they wouldn’t fall out of the NY6 or the Top 10 (I see UGA being #4 going into conference championship weekend).  I think Memphis will beat up most of the teams they face and sneak into the Top 10 undefeated.  Notre Dame might be more talented but with a slightly tougher schedule, they will “fall” to the Orange Bowl.  Ohio State should be in the Top 10 all season and even a season-ending loss to Michigan won’t push them out.  Texas, Syracuse and Washington also won’t even be in their conference championship but will leap over the CCG losers to get here.  Finally, it’s Utah’s year.  I think it will be a close call at the end of the year between the Utes and Michigan for the #4 spot but I can’t see The Committee leaving Michigan out.  This is where being a college football blueblood certainly helps.

The lowest seed in here is at #13 and that’s the Syracuse Orange.  The ACC Champion is contractually obligated to go to the Orange Bowl.  Since Clemson is obviously in the CFP, Syracuse would be the highest ranked team to go here.  Honestly this is a good-case scenario as the last thing the powers that be want is like the #20 team getting into the New Year’s Six.  I get it’s all about bowl tie-ins but still, some would be upset for sure, especially if you are the #12 team (which this year I have LSU in that spot).

Now for the rest of our bowl matchups:

January 6th	Dollar General Bowl	Toledo	Louisiana
January 4th	Armed Forces Bowl	Northwestern	San Diego State
January 3rd	Idaho Potato Bowl	Fresno State	Ohio
January 2nd	Gator Bowl	#18 Florida	Michigan State
January 2nd	Birmingham Bowl	Kentucky	#21 Army*
January 1st	Citrus Bowl	#12 LSU	#15 Nebraska
January 1st	Outback Bowl	#22 Texas A&M	#17 Penn State
December 31st	Alamo Bowl	Iowa State	#14 Oregon
December 31st	Arizona Bowl	Utah State	Troy
December 31st	Liberty Bowl	Auburn	Baylor
December 31st	Sun Bowl	USC	#16 Miami
December 31st	Belk Bowl	Mississippi State	#24 NC State
December 30th	Redbox Bowl	Wisconsin	Stanford
December 30th	Music City Bowl	Tennessee	Virginia Tech
December 30th	First Responder Bowl	Arizona State*	Marshall
December 28th	Camping World Bowl	Oklahoma State	Florida State
December 27th	Cheez-It Bowl	Wyoming*	Washington
December 27th	Holiday Bowl	#25 Iowa	#20 Washington State
December 27th	Texas Bowl	South Carolina	TCU
December 27th	Pinstripe Bowl	Purdue	Virginia
December 27th	Military Bowl	Pittsburgh	UCF
December 26th	Quick Lane Bowl	Minnesota	UAB*
December 26th	Independence Bowl	Southern Miss*	Liberty*
December 24th	Hawaii Bowl	BYU	Cincinnati
December 23rd	Gasparilla Bowl	Navy	Florida Atlantic
December 21st	New Orleans Bowl	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian State
December 21st	Las Vegas Bowl	UCLA	#19 Boise State
December 21st	Camellia Bowl	Buffalo	Arkansas State
December 21st	Boca Raton Bowl	Houston	Western Michigan
December 21st	Cure Bowl	SMU	Georgia Southern
December 21st	New Mexico Bowl	Air Force	North Texas
December 20th	Frisco Bowl	Temple	Northern Illinois
December 20th	Bahamas Bowl	Eastern Michigan	FIU

Oh and they are adding more games next season!  Bowl games are starting in Boston and Myrtle Beach with ones in Los Angeles and Chicago proposed.  Look, it’s more college football.  If games don’t go to FOX Sports One, Canadian college football fans won’t bat an eye.  I mean should they actually have more of a structure with the bowl season, especially considering ESPN owns more than half the bowls?  Of course.  But it won’t happen anytime soon which is messed.  Anyway, some notes on the fun-time magical bowl season:

• I have three games predicted between ranked teams: LSU-Nebraska in the Citrus, TAMU-Penn State in the Outback, & Iowa-Wazzu in the Holiday.  Three very good matchups for bowl season that people would watch no matter the time of year.
• One asterisk (*) means the conference tie-in couldn’t be satisfied or that BYU wasn’t able to secure their Hawaii Bowl bid.  Two asterisks (**) means we have got into APR territory.  If you notice, no APR teams in there.  Actually, I had exactly the right amount of teams.  I think that’s the first time ever.
• Some of the better matchups include:
  • the three ranked-on-ranked matchups mentioned above
  • Northwestern-SDSU in the Armed Forces Bowl
  • Kentucky-Army in the Birmingham Bowl
  • USC-Miami in the Sun Bowl
  • Purdue-UVA in the Pinstripe Bowl
  • ISU-Oregon in the Alamo Bowl
  • UCLA-Boise in the Las Vegas Bowl

As for the actual College Football Playoff semi-final games, I have Clemson and Alabama both winning relatively easily.  Then we get Clemson-Bama V.  I include the semi-final matchup these two teams had as well.  And yes, Clemson will repeat.

Next up is my most accurate report I do (other than the schedules): the Coaching Hot Seat Report.  I will follow that with my worst post in terms of accuracy, my Heisman ballot.  I will have to include an NFL preview at some point since we are getting into the thick of the preseason with all those “fabulous” homer announcers.  We are FIVE days away from the start of the college football season.  I will do a short post for Week Zero (hopefully sponsored by Coke Zero) to go over the tiny schedule there will be.  Whether these games will end up in the specialty pack guide if they aren’t on CBSSN or a TSN channel, who knows.  I am guessing no, they won’t.  Enjoy the rest of your week and the weekend everyone.