The G-5. It’s like that big vat of McDonald’s orange drink…

Many of the better teams have gone on to greener pastures. They have been replaced (kind of) by weaker teams from FCS. So yeah, they keep watering down the Group of Five. How far can they water it down? Groundskeeper Willie thinks we need to stop. I sort of agree with the angry Scot.

As you already know, Houston, UCF and Cincinnati left the American Conference for the Big(ger) XII. BYU joined them from the Independent ranks but the Cougs were always a weird hybrid since leaving the Mountain West. Not quite Power Five but better than Group of Five. Either way, they moved up as well.

Coming up from FCS is Sam Houston (not the wrestler) and Jacksonville State (two Gamecocks? What is this, the CFL?). Kennesaw State joins next season. All three teams will be in Conference USA. Yeah, the teams coming in don’t exactly measure up to the teams leaving.

What this does, though, is open the door for other teams to ascend to a level where they are almost always competing for the Group of Five crown. Boise State is the only program left who constantly contends for the one G-5 spot in the New Year’s Six. Tulane went last season and looks like a team that should continue that kind of success this season. UTSA, SMU, San Diego State and a few Sun Belt squads also have their eye on that singular prize. Let’s get to the conference standings and see where I believe thing will head this season.

Man, imagine the Big East was back? That conference would be…well, it would be pretty good. Not amazing. But a step above the Group of Five. Anyway…

The cream of the crop among Group of Five conferences is the AAC until further notice. The Mountain West has tried their best but it feels like that competition is over, even if Boise State does win the G-5 title. The Sun Belt is gaining but I can never see them catching the American under the current format. So let’s look at the predictions for the Kings of the G-5 followed by some marinations:

		Conference		Overall
		W	L	W	L
	Tulane	8	0	11	1
	UTSA	7	1	10	2
	Memphis	6	2	8	4
	SMU	6	2	8	4
	FAU	4	4	6	6
	East Carolina	4	4	7	5
	Navy	4	4	5	7
	North Texas	4	4	7	5
	UAB	3	5	4	8
	Tulsa	3	5	4	8
	USF	3	5	3	9
	Rice	2	6	4	8
	Temple	2	6	4	8
	Charlotte	0	8	1	11

Marinating in American Sauce

• Honestly, that sounds disgusting. I am surprised no one has created it…whatever it might end up being.
• Look, Tulane is not coming down from their perch. The schedule is, once again, in their favour and other than a huge matchup against South Alabama to start their season and their season-ending matchup with UTSA, the rest of the schedule is more than manageable. Expect the American Championship to go through New Orleans for the second straight year.
• No surprise with the Roadrunners of UTSA (I just said that in Greg Gumbel voice) being the team that will end up facing the Green Wave for the conference title. This program is seriously on the rise and could soon enough be called the premiere Group of Five team (until they are poached by the Big XII).
• Memphis and SMU will be good once again. But as has been the case, both teams will probably drop at least one game they should win and that is what will ultimately cost them the chance to upset Tulane for the league title.
• Some people are very high on Florida Atlantic with their new head coach Tom Herman. I am taking more of a wait and see approach. The same goes for North Texas as they break in a new head coach as well.
• I believe Navy will go into the Army-Navy Game needing a win for bowl eligibility. Well, you can tell by their record what I think will happen. I wonder how bowl committees will deal with this. Maybe some bowl gives them the first ever conditional bowl bid? That would actually be kind of exciting. Win and you’re in. Lose and your bid goes to James Madison.
• As for the AAC Championship, I see Tulane winning their second game against UTSA in as many weeks to be crowned the AAC champion. I don’t see the Green Wave having an easy time in either game though but they will feel lucky not to be in the Alamodome for either of these games.
• Seven projected bowl bids for a conference with fourteen teams. Not exactly great but I think it will take some time for teams like Charlotte and Rice to get acclimated to their new surroundings. Especially since they weren’t that great in the conference they came from.

I am a bit worried that I won’t be ready to do the long Saturday nights that the Mountain West (and Pac-12) give us. Don’t even mention the Hawaii Tests. And this is at a time when I am desperately trying to restrict my caffeine intake. Ugh, this could be very interesting. Maybe I’ll just drink the entire time.

This is the second year of the Mountain West deal with FOX so we won’t see nearly as many MWC games. Yes there will be at least one every week on CBS Sports Network and we get some early-season CBS affairs but with no conference games on any of the ESPN networks, it really hinders our ability as Canadians to watch this conference. Hell, we can probably watch more Conference USA this season.

OK let’s get to this season’s predictions followed by sleep deprived lunacy:

		Conference		Overall
		W	L	W	L
	Boise State	8	0	10	2
	San Diego State	6	2	8	4
	Fresno State	6	2	8	4
	Air Force	5	3	9	3
	Wyoming	5	3	7	5
	San Jose State	4	4	6	6
	UNLV	4	4	5	7
	Utah State	3	5	4	8
	Nevada	3	5	3	9
	Colorado State	2	6	3	9
	New Mexico	1	7	2	10
	Hawaii	1	7	3	10

Juuuuust a tiny bit of Sleep-Deprived Lunacy

• You will notice something different with these standings compared to all the others I have predicted in the past. No divisions! About damn time. Divisions are just useless in this day and age. And soon enough, no FBS conference will have divisions. I am certain of that.
• Reader John might not be too pleased with this but I think Boise State runs through the conference schedule with relative ease. Not saying teams like SDSU, FSU or Air Force aren’t good. It’s just that the Broncos’ schedule is so favourable you’d have to be crazy to think they don’t have a great shot not just to win the conference, but that one New Year’s Six spot. Really, their September will shape their season. Be at least 3-2 at the end of the month and they will be on their way. Less than that and the conference might just be up for grabs.
• In terms of teams just below that top tier, Wyoming should ho-hum their way into another bowl game. I can’t believe Craig Bohl has been in Laramie for almost half of the life of the Mountain West conference it self. SJSU and UNLV will be in a dogfight for a bowl spot and I could honestly see it going either way. But no, I don’t agree with that one voter who thinks the Rebels will win the conference crown. I think that person was obviously coming off a gambling-coke-and-booze fueled bender when they made that choice.
• I’ve got the Aztecs winning the tiebreaker with Fresno to get the other MWC Championship spot opposite Boise on the frigid smurf turf. I think the weather is what gives the Broncos the edge in this one as I have them winning the conference championship and then awaiting to see what happens in the rest of the Group of Five.

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd we’re back down to four teams. Liberty and New Mexico State fucked off to Conference USA and BYU headed to the Big XII, leaving Notre Dame less little brothers to have to hang around with. The thing is, if you took UMass out of the equation…well, you’ll see. Let’s get right to the short set of predictions followed by some actual team-by-team analysis (which is much easier with just four teams):

		Overall
		W	L
	Notre Dame	10	2
	Army	6	6
	UConn	6	6
	UMass	1	11

Actual Team-by-Team Analysis (I wasn’t lying!)

• Of course we have to start with the team that doesn’t belong in this entire post, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. It was tough going through their schedule because I don’t know how much they will improve from last year. But they have Sam Hartman. A bonafide Heisman contender at quarterback for the first time in I don’t know how many years. So my ten win prediction for them doesn’t seem too far off the mark and it wouldn’t surprise me if they were able to get to eleven either and get in the College Football Playoff converstaion.
• Hey, remember what I said about Navy earlier? That they would be playing for their bowl-eligibility lives in the Army-Navy game? Well, guess who else I think will be in the same boat. Oh yes. I think this will be, easily, the most important Army-Navy Game in a long time. I now wonder if the provisional bowl selection will be a winner-take-all type of deal. Which would be so damn awesome to see.
• Will UConn get back to a bowl game? That seems to be a huge question. And to be honest, I think bowl eligibility is almost the floor for this program. Amazing what can happen when you get the right coach in the right spot. Is Jim Mora Jr. an amazing coach? Not really. But he’s good and he landed in the perfect spot for him and the Huskies. Now they have to avoid what happened in the past even when they were somewhat decent: lose games to teams they should beat. Do that and they should be in the postseason once again.
• And finally we get to the Minutemen and yes, they will be awful. Quite possibly the worst FBS team once again. I predict them to win one game. That’s it. And it won’t be against Merrimack. I think they squeak by New Mexico and that’s all. And even then, I could see this team go winless. I’m not as huge an advocate of moving teams back down to FCS as I used to be but I do wonder if UMass just needs to drop down. There’s nothing keeping them up in FBS. No conference affiliation and no possibilities in the near future. It might be time to pull the trigger on this program’s demotion.

The Sun Belt (and MAC) are being joined by Conference USA when it comes to mid-week action this season. I will have to check but we may have football every day for over a month.

Other than that, there are less similarties than ever between the Sun Belt and the MAC or Conference USA. The Fun Belt has set themselves up pretty well as the third best Group of Five conference. They are actually closer in quality to the Mountain West than the MAC which is something that never would have been said even five years ago. Also, they seem to be pretty safe from any realignment unless some doomsday scenario comes about and college football conferences as we know it change forever. And I’m not going to say that won’t happen.

Anyway, for now, let’s get to my predictions for the eighth-best FBS conference followed by some upbeat comments:

		Conference		Overall
	East	W	L	W	L
	Appalachian State	7	1	8	4
	James Madison	6	2	8	4
	Coastal Carolina	6	2	9	3
	Marshall	5	3	7	5
	Georgia State	2	6	4	8
	Georgia Southern	2	6	5	7
	Old Dominion	0	8	1	11
	West
	South Alabama	7	1	9	3
	Troy	7	1	10	2
	Southern Miss	5	3	6	6
	Louisiana	4	4	7	5
	Arkansas State	2	6	4	8
	Texas State	2	6	3	9
	ULM	1	7	2	10

Upbeat Comments

• Well…upbeat for some teams.
• The top of each of the divisions continue to be exciting. It’s the one conference that defies my No Divisions preference. In the East, you have four legitimate contenders and you can possibly say the same for the West. Parity rules the day in the Sun Belt once again.
• App State, after an odd year that saw some pretty extreme highs and lows, should be back on top of the mountion in the East, barely beating out JMU and Coastal.
• South Alabama will finally get their shot at the Sun Belt Championship with what I believe will be a late-season win over Troy.
• As for bowl games, officially only seven of the contenders I’ve mentioned would be able to go to a bowl. But, I have a bit of a surprise for Dukes fans once I put out my bowl predictions post.
• I still say the Sun Belt champ should get a shot at an SEC team in New Orleans. Imagine how many fans they would get for that?

As I said above, the Sun Belt and Conference USA have a lot of weekday night games now. But it still isn’t MACtion. The originators to us sickos that love more and more and more football. I don’t even care about the attendance issues that these games cause. The MAC is getting their ESPN money and I am getting my football fix. Everyone wins!

Alright, predictions time followed by some points in a Midwestern accent:

		Conference		Overall
	East	W	L	W	L
	Ohio	7	1	8	4
	Miami-OH	5	3	7	5
	Buffalo	4	4	5	7
	Bowling Green	3	5	4	8
	Akron	3	5	4	8
	Kent State	0	8	1	11
	West
	Toledo	7	1	9	3
	Eastern Michigan	6	2	9	3
	Central Michigan	4	4	4	8
	Northern Illinois	3	5	5	7
	Western Michigan	3	5	3	9
	Ball State	3	5	4	8

Points with Pork Chops and Aeeeplesauce

• I mean I’m not gonna lie: I like pork chops and applesauce. I just think it’s way more of a staple in a place like Minnesota than here.
• Looks like two teams who are used to being near the top should head back to the MAC title game. Not that Toledo and Ohio won’t have their speed bump games in the MAC but I feel they have the best talent to win their respective divisions.
• Only two teams that will be with new head coaches this season and both of them are going to struggle. Lance Taylor takes over for Tim Lester at Western Michigan where Lester just couldn’t do what P.J. Fleck did there. Tall order but most were hoping he would be close and he wasn’t. As for Kent State, they lose Sean Lewis to Coach Prime and Colorado. Bring in Kenni Burns. Yes Kenni with an i. And ho boy is it going to be a long season in Kent for Mr. Burns.
• I only see four bowl-eligible teams from the MAC. I have done this before and I was wrong. I just can’t see most of these teams doing enough in their non-conference schedule to get them to a bowl game in December.
• Ford Field should see another dandy for the MAC Championship. I’ve got Ohio winning a close one over Toledo with the prize being to go back to Ford Field a few weeks later. At least the tie-in there states that they should face a Big Ten team. That’s the way it should be.

Hey remember what I used to say about Conference USA? Well, it has pretty much come to fruition. You would have to be some kind of dumb or not watch college football to know that this is now the bottom of the barrel when it comes to FBS conferences. I warned them. I’m sure others did too. And now they are stuck. Could they end up being not last place? Sure, maybe. But other than WKU and Liberty, what other teams are really pushing things here? That’s what I thought. Luckily they were able to snag a contract with ESPN to show games on weeknights in October. And when I say weeknights I mean all weeknight games. No Saturday conference games that month. I will be happy though because it means there will be college football on like four consecutive Tuesdays. Not a bad thing at all.

Now it’s time for predictions for the new-ish Conference USA followed by some weeknight non-sitcom commentary:

		Conference		Overall
		W	L	W	L
	WKU	7	1	9	3
	Middle Tennessee	6	2	8	4
	Liberty	6	2	9	3
	UTEP	4	4	6	6
	New Mexico State	4	4	7	6
	Louisiana Tech	2	6	4	8
	Sam Houston	2	6	3	9
	Jacksonville State	2	6	3	9
	FIU	1	7	2	10

Weeknight Non-Sitcom Commentary

• Look, with Austin Reed back at QB, he may throw over 5,000 yards. They should win the regular season title pretty easily and it wouldn’t surprise me if they ended up running the table as well.
• There are some newcomers! Liberty is that one newcomer, though, that most are saying will win the conference title in their first year in C-USA. I say not so fast my friend. I don’t even see them getting to the conference title game. The Flames will most likely lose a game they should win and it will cost them that spot.
• Yes, I have NMSU making a bowl game again! Jerry Kill has really turned things around in Las Cruces and with this new conference I see them already in the middle if not near the top.
• On the other hand, Jacksonville State and Sam Houston make their FBS debut this season and it won’t be a kind one. They will struggle and need some time to find their way. Down the road, though, at least one of these programs will turn into one of the conference’s best, if not both of them. But at least they won’t be as bad as…
• FIU. Yeesh. Mike MacIntyre will be pulling his hair out by the time this season is over.
• So yeah, it’s Middle Tennessee against WKU and I don’t see it being that close but you never know. The Hilltoppers should win going away. Do you think these two teams are regretting not heading to the MAC?

We have completed the journey! Well…half of it. Next up is the Power Five conferences. Then, finally, a nice little bow to tie this whole thing together. Have a great week everyone!