Yeah you’re gonna get like 20 sets of projections before everything is finalized so buckle up, friends.
This will be the last set of rankings I do since doing them after conference championship weekend makes no sense. I’m already doing a bowl projection post every couple hours. Adding rankings on to it is pointless. So, the season finale of the Bossman Top 25!
| #1 | Georgia |
| #2 | Michigan |
| #3 | TCU |
| #4 | USC |
| #5 | Ohio State |
| #6 | Tennessee |
| #7 | Alabama |
| #8 | Penn State |
| #9 | Utah |
| #10 | Washington |
| #11 | Clemson |
| #12 | Kansas State |
| #13 | Florida State |
| #14 | LSU |
| #15 | Oregon State |
| #16 | Oregon |
| #17 | Tulane |
| #18 | UCLA |
| #19 | South Carolina |
| #20 | Notre Dame |
| #21 | Texas |
| #22 | UCF |
| #23 | Troy |
| #24 | North Carolina |
| #25 | Cincinnati |
It seems like this is pretty close to what’s actually happening with the College Football Playoff rankings. And I didn’t need a stupid show to announce them. I had debated putting Michigan at #1 but can’t with their shit schedule and an honestly down Big Ten conference. I know ESPN would fucking LOVE it if Bama made it into the College Football Playoff but I believe they shouldn’t even be ranked ahead of Tennessee and that’s why I have them at #7. Honestly, they shouldn’t get there, even if both TCU and USC lose. I have a feeling my opinion is not shared by The Committee.
Oh I need a cliffhanger since it’s the season finale. OK how about this: some teams get so pissed off at The Committee’s rankings that they threaten to leave to form their own division. Yeah, that sounds good.
OK now I can get to the bowl projections. This is the last set before Saturday when I start doing them on a far-too-often basis as things change by the half hour it seems. Let us being with the College Football Playoff:
| Fiesta Bowl | CFP #2 vs. CFP #3 | Michigan vs. TCU |
| Peach Bowl | CFP #1 vs. CFP #4 | Georgia vs. USC |
The question remains: Who here can be pushed out of the Top 4? Michigan and Georgia seem to be locked in, even if they lose their conference championship games. TCU and USC, on the other hand, are still on relatively shaky ground. Either team loses their respective conference championship, expect a huge groundswell of people to want either Ohio State or Alabama to replace them. I guess if both the Horned Frogs and Trojans lose, you have to have the conversation but if only one loses…oof that is going to spark some serious controversy.
| Rose Bowl | Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1 | Ohio State vs. Washington |
| Cotton Bowl | CFP at-large vs. G-5 #1 | Penn State vs. Tulane |
| Sugar Bowl | SEC #1 vs. Big XII #1 | Alabama vs. Kansas State |
| Orange Bowl | ACC #1 vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC | North Carolina vs. Tennessee |
I’m sure you’ll look at this and see one really odd team. So let’s get right to the elephant in the room…yes, I think Penn State will get to the Cotton Bowl. I know there could be a few teams that would fill that spot just as good as the Nittany Lions but I am going with Penn State to be there when it’s all said and done.
Oh….OH! You thought I meant North Carolina? Well I have a feeling that Drake Maye is going to light up the Clemson defense and the Tar Heels will pull off the upset of Clemson. That would relegate Clemson into the rest of the bowl games, which wouldn’t sit well with Dabo Swinney I’m sure.
Alright, finally time for the rest of the projected bowl matchups.
| Citrus Bowl | SEC vs. Big Ten | LSU vs. Purdue |
| ReliaQuest Bowl | SEC vs. Big Ten | Ole Miss vs. Maryland |
| Music City Bowl | SEC vs. Big Ten | South Carolina vs. Illinois |
| Gator Bowl | SEC vs. ACC | Florida vs. NC State |
| Arizona Bowl | MWC vs. MAC | Wyoming vs. Ohio |
| Sun Bowl | ACC vs. Pac-12 | Florida State vs. Oregon State |
| Duke’s Mayo Bowl | Big Ten vs. ACC | Iowa vs. Notre Dame |
| Alamo Bowl | Big XII vs. Pac-12 | Texas vs. Oregon |
| Cheez-It Bowl | Big XII vs. ACC | Oklahoma vs. Clemson |
| Pinstripe Bowl | Big XII vs. ACC | Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh |
| Texas Bowl | SEC vs. Big XII | Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma State |
| Holiday Bowl | ACC vs. Pac-12 | Duke vs. UCLA |
| Liberty Bowl | SEC vs. Big XII | Kentucky vs. Texas Tech |
| Military Bowl | ACC vs. AAC | Syracuse vs. UCF |
| Guaranteed Rate Bowl | Big Ten vs. Big XII | Wisconsin vs. Baylor |
| Birmingham Bowl | SEC vs. AAC/ACC/C-USA | Missouri vs. Memphis |
| First Responder Bowl | Two of AAC, Big XII, C-USA, Sun Belt, MWC | Kansas vs. SMU |
| Camellia Bowl | Sun Belt vs. MAC/C-USA | South Alabama vs. North Texas |
| Quick Lane Bowl | Big Ten vs. MAC | UConn vs. Buffalo |
| Hawaii Bowl | BYU/AAC/C-USA vs. MAC | Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State |
| Independence Bowl | AAC vs. Army | Houston vs. Army |
| Gasparilla Bowl | Two of AAC, ACC, SEC, Pac-12 | East Carolina vs. Louisville |
| Armed Forces Bowl | Two of Big XII, C-USA, AAC | WKU vs. BYU |
| New Orleans Bowl | Sun Belt vs. C-USA | Southern Miss vs. UTSA |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Two of AAC, Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC | Marshall vs. New Mexico State |
| Idaho Potato Bowl | MWC vs. MAC | Air Force vs. Bowling Green |
| Myrtle Beach Bowl | Two of AAC, Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC | Troy vs. Liberty |
| Frisco Bowl | Two from Group of Five | Utah State vs. Georgia Southern |
| Las Vegas Bowl | SEC vs. Pac-12 | Arkansas vs. Washington State |
| LendingTree Bowl | Sun Belt vs. MAC/C-USA | Coastal Carolina vs. Toledo |
| LA Bowl | Pac-12 vs. MWC | Utah vs. Boise State |
| New Mexico Bowl | MWC vs. AAC/C-USA/MAC | Fresno State vs. Eastern Michigan |
| Fenway Bowl | ACC vs. AAC | Wake Forest vs. Cincinnati |
| Cure Bowl | Two from Group of Five | San Jose State vs. Louisiana |
| Bahamas Bowl | C-USA vs. MAC | UAB vs. Miami-OH |
The Bahamas and Hawaii Bowls are already set. The Bahamas Bowl is always set around conference championship time because the teams have to make sure everyone that is going to the islands have their passports and that takes time. As for the Hawaii Bowl, I have no idea. But if you just look at it from a bowl destination standpoint, that’s a much better place to go than, say, Shreveport.
Oh one thing before I continue, I had one of the tie-ins wrong this entire season. The SEC sends a team every other year to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. In the off years they send a team to Las Vegas Bowl. I had them with tie-ins to both. I have fixed that. Maybe this way I won’t always run out of SEC teams before they come close to filling their tie-ins.
OK, on to the bowl eligibility fiasco of sorts. There are 82 bowl spots. 41 bowl games. As of right now, 79 teams are bowl-eligible. Three spots remain. This is where things get a little complicated. Let’s go through this one-by-one:
- Buffalo hosts Akron on Friday. This is the make-up game after Snowpocalypse hit the area a couple weeks back. The Bulls win, they are bowl-eligible. I have them winning and becoming Team #80.
- New Mexico State was supposed to play San Jose State over a month ago. Unfortunately, the tragic death of SJSU’s Camdan McWright meant the game was cancelled. With the way the schedules were, it couldn’t be played. The Spartans won’t play this week because they are already bowl-eligible and want to rest. That’s very fair. The Aggies have been able to schedule a game with FCS Valparaiso. The Aggies should win and if they get a waiver they would become bowl-eligible even with two wins over FCS opponents. I think this all happens and they become Team #81.
- Army is 5-6. I have them beating Navy. Here’s the thing though: they have two wins over FCS opponents and the Army-Navy game is AFTER all the bowl games are set out. So my guess is they are Team #82 and if they lose, then we get some chaos. A bit.
- Appalachian State is 6-6 with two wins over FCS opponents. If they ask for a waiver and get it AND they need a bowl-eligible team, they would be next in line.
- James Madison is on this list because the NCAA is, as always, a fucked up organization that makes money by accident. Since they are a transitional team, they can’t win a conference or go to a bowl. Even if they are good. Which JMU has been this year. Normally I would say it has to do with an easier schedule but that’s not really the case. They won 2 games over FCS opponents but had a regular Sun Belt conference schedule and ran roughshod over a lot of teams, including Coastal Carolina. Them only having 11 games is more of an issue in my opinion. But for people saying they should have scheduled another game, why? They already knew their fate was pretty much sealed. Anyway, if they applied for a waiver and it was accepted they would have to wait to see if the NCAA chose them or a team off the APR list (which I will explain in the next point).
- Next up is the APR list. APR stands for Academic Progress Rate. Not necessarily a metric on how “smart” a school is but how well schools are graduating their athletes. So a school like Stanford, which is a tough academic school, might not graduate as many football players (as a percentage) as, say, ULM which has far less stringent academic entrance criteria but may graduate more of their students. Anyway, here is the list:
- Rice
- UNLV
- Auburn
- Michigan State
- The rest don’t matter because it will never get to those schools. If there aren’t enough bowl-eligible teams, Rice would be given first choice to accept an offer. Then UNLV, Auburn and, finally, Michigan State. I don’t think it will get to these teams but it can if some of the things that happened above don’t happen. Plus, there are rumours abound that UNLV, after inexplicably firing Marcus Arroyo after the best season since 2013 under Bobby Hauck, would reject a bowl offer even if it got to them on the APR list.
Did you get all that? That needs to be a college class. I’m sure the failure rate would still be about 50%.
Alright, I won’t update this until sometime on Saturday since, chances are, nothing much will happen until then. I doubt I will be on Twitter until later in the day on Saturday. Then Sunday it will be all day, going over the bowl games as they get filled. Going to be a busy weekend. Enjoy the rest of your week everyone!
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