College Football

OK now my bowl projections aren’t so crazy anymore…right?

After doing some crazy bowl projections last week (2007-esque) we are going back to my true bowl projections.  I will warn you in advance: there are some projections that my ruffle some feathers.  Also, understand that these bowl projections, like most experts’ bowl projections are a bit of a mess because of what has gone on so far this season.

Sugar Bowl CFP Poll #1 vs. CFP Poll #4 Alabama vs. Wisconsin
Rose Bowl CFP Poll #2 vs. CFP Poll #3 Oklahoma vs. Clemson

Yes I still have Wisconsin in.  And yes I have them at #4.  Let me explain:

  • Wisconsin wins out.  Completely.  They even beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  But that game is close.  And at least one of their other games is close as well.  So they get in.  And people are pissed about it.  But there is no way The Committee is excluding an undefeated Power Five team.  Not a chance.  Even one with as easy a schedule as the Badgers had.
  • Alabama also wins out.  Doesn’t matter if they have difficulty with Mississippi State or Auburn or even Georgia.  They win out and they’re #1.  Why?  Because I have them beating UGA in the SEC Championship.
  • Oklahoma and Clemson run the table from here on in.  Which makes them easy selections once Notre Dame (kind of) craps the bed and the Pac-12 just Pac-12s itself.

So far so…well not good but acceptable.  Let’s get to the next part of our equation.

Peach Bowl CFP At-Large vs. CFP At-Large Auburn vs. Memphis
Orange Bowl ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame Miami vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl CFP At-Large vs. CFP At-Large USC vs. Penn State
Cotton Bowl CFP At-Large vs. CFP At-Large Washington vs. Oklahoma State

Yes one team here looks a bit out of place.  Let’s get to the explanations shall we?

  • UCF will win the War on I-4 over USF and finish the regular season unbeaten (and untied…remember when they used to always say that?).  Then they go up against Memphis in the AAC Championship and the Tigers win.  They are ranked just ahead of MAC champ Toledo and get the Group of Five spot at the Peach Bowl.  So yeah this isn’t far-fetched at all.  Seriously.  Memphis is a dangerous team and would give the other Tigers from Auburn a run for their money.
  • As for Auburn, I believe they will upset Georgia which will move them up far enough to be included in the New Year’s Six despite an Iron Bowl loss to Bama.
  • Miami would be easily in the top four except for a loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship.  With Wisconsin pretty much having to be included, it leaves the Canes on the outside looking in.
  • Georgia loses the SEC Championship after going 11-1 during the regular season (the loss being to Auburn…man the Tigers stepping up in November!).  I have not changed this sentence since the last bowl projection post.
  • USC will win their last three games to clinch the Pac-12 South and get to the Pac-12 Championship where they will defeat… (again this hasn’t been changed from last week)
  • Stanford!  Yes the Cardinal will get there by beating Washington.  But this is after losing to Washington State this coming weekend.  The Pac-12 Title loss pushes them out of the NY6.  It also allows Washington, who misses the title game altogether, to sneak back in to the New Year’s Six.
  • We discussed poor Penn State above.  They could slot into the Orange Bowl spot as well but I can see them being too far back to overtake Wisconsin, despite Wisky’s shitty strength-of-schedule.
  • TCU’s loss to Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship would push TCU down the rankings enough to let the team they beat during the regular season, Oklahoma State, to move in to take their place.
  • OSU and Auburn get in ahead of TCU (who I just discussed in the previous point), Michigan State, Northwestern (who surges up the rankings), and NC State.  Notre Dame loses twice and is a non-factor here (although at least one Committee member will push for them to be included I am sure).

See?  A bit of a mess here.  Then we get to the bowl games which are a bit messier.  But at least I can try and make sense of the choices I have made below.

Citrus Bowl SEC vs. Big Ten/ACC LSU vs. Ohio State
Outback Bowl SEC vs. Big Ten South Carolina vs. Michigan State
Liberty Bowl SEC vs. Big XII/American Mississippi State vs. West Virginia
TaxSlayer Bowl SEC vs. Big Ten/ACC Kentucky vs. Michigan
Arizona Bowl MWC vs. Sun Belt Boise State vs. Arkansas State
Music City Bowl SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten Texas A&M vs. Virginia Tech
Sun Bowl Pac-12 vs. ACC Arizona vs. Louisville
Belk Bowl SEC vs. ACC Arkansas vs. NC State
Alamo Bowl Pac-12 vs. Big XII Arizona State vs. TCU
Holiday Bowl Big Ten vs. Pac-12 Northwestern vs. Stanford
Camping World Bowl Big XII vs. ACC Iowa State vs. Notre Dame
Military Bowl ACC vs. American Wake Forest vs. UCF
Texas Bowl SEC vs. Big XII Vanderbilt vs. Texas
Foster Farms Bowl Big Ten vs. Pac-12 Iowa vs. Washington State
Pinstripe Bowl Big Ten vs. ACC Oregon* vs. Syracuse
Independence Bowl SEC/Conference USA vs. ACC/American Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech
Cactus Bowl Pac-12/MWC vs. Big XII/MWC UCLA vs. Wyoming
Quick Lane Bowl Big Ten/MAC vs. ACC/MAC Toledo vs. Boston College
Heart of Dallas Bowl Big XII vs. Big Ten Kansas State vs. Indiana
Hawaii Bowl MWC vs. American Colorado State vs. Houston
Dollar General Bowl MAC vs. Sun Belt Ohio vs. Appalachian State
Armed Forces Bowl Army vs. Conference USA Army vs. Florida Atlantic
Birmingham Bowl SEC/ACC vs. American/ACC Virginia vs. USF
Idaho Potato Bowl MWC vs. MAC Air Force vs. Akron
Bahamas Bowl Conference USA vs. MAC Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois
Gasparilla Bowl Conference USA/ACC vs. American/ACC Western Kentucky vs. Navy
Frisco Bowl American vs. Sun Belt SMU vs. Troy
Boca Raton Bowl American vs. Conference USA Central Michigan* vs. Southern Miss
Camellia Bowl MAC vs. Sun Belt Western Michigan vs. UL-Lafayette
New Mexico Bowl MWC vs. Conference USA Utah State vs. North Texas
Las Vegas Bowl Pac-12 vs. MWC Utah vs. San Diego State
Cure Bowl American vs. Sun Belt FIU* vs. Georgia State
New Orleans Bowl Conference USA vs. Sun Belt UAB vs. Fresno State*

A few notes on this:

  • Three teams who are bowl-eligible would be left out of the party.  At this point it would be three Conference USA teams (Marshall, Middle Tennessee and UTSA).
  • The SEC is a bit of a mess seeing who gets to go to the better bowls.  LSU is fine but it drops off a bit of a cliff with South Carolina, Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt getting prominent bowl games.
  • I have Florida out (at 5-6) but Tennessee in.  I can’t see the Vols not winning two of their last three.  Saying that, they are still a dumpster fire and if they lose this coming Saturday then I will have no choice but to take them out of this list.  Then watch me forget and include them anyway.  I’m a mess too.
  • No more Texas A&M vs. Texas in the Texas Bowl.  I’m done lobbying.  It won’t happen…this year.
  • The Sun Bowl will be a celebration of college basketball infractions.  Call it the Pitino Bowl.
  • Oregon will fill in the Pinstripe Bowl spot left by the Big Ten not being able to fill all their tie-ins (damn tie-ins!).  This happens because they would be the only Power Five team without a bowl slot.
  • Hey did you see Florida State rescheduled their game against ULM?  I hope the Noles are 4-7 going into that game.  What a joke.
  • At this point, Army is the only team who has accepted a bowl bid.  I still believe none of the bowl bids should be announced before conference championship week.

So tonight we got some MACtion.  It’s on the specialty pack.  Tomorrow night we got more MACtion.  It isn’t appearing yet.  Thursday night we have some MACtion and ACCtion and Fun Belt.  It is appearing.  See the problem here?

Alright we shall see about a post tomorrow.  Don’t expect anything though.  If your expectations are low, then if I exceed those expectations you will be happy.   I am just trying to make it easier for everyone.  Then the normal late week posts.  Enjoy the rest of your week everyone!

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