I’m scared to calculate this. Last year wasn’t that great and I am expecting this year to be much worse. So instead of beating around the bush let’s get right into it.
The process I am using to see how well my conference standings predictions were comes from a site called www.stassen.com. It is a HUGE database of college football information. You should take a look when you have a chance. One of the items he does is he ranks college football magazine predictions to see which one is the “most accurate” magazine. The magazine that has had the best overall score over the past two decades is, not surprisingly, Phil Steele. His magazine is the premier college football prediction magazine there is, one I have got every year for the past five years now. I’m not saying other magazines aren’t good. I enjoy Lindy’s and Athlon and usually get both of them as well but Phil Steele takes the cake. Anyway, often, Phil Steele is in the top five for predictions and has won on a handful of occasions. Unlike me who, in their second season, has shit the bed yet again.
OK that’s not totally true but my predictions weren’t exactly great. Nostradamus I am not. Here’s how the scoring works for this little exercise:
- Take my conference standings and rank the teams from first to worst. In the case of a tie, an average of the rankings would be given to both teams. For example, if team A and team B were predicted to be tied for 3rd, then they would get the average of the 3rd and 4th rankings, 3.5.
- Then look at the actual conference standings from this season. However, if there are two teams tied for, say, 2nd place, they will receive the numbers 2 and 3. The number closest to the prediction will be used in calculations.
- Find the difference for every team.
- Add up the numbers and that’s the total score.
Just so you know, the winning number is usually in the 120 range. And now, my number for this past season. Drum roll please!
Ugh. Shittier than last season’s 142. Not as bad as some magazines (online or paper) are but still not great. Here were some of my faux pas’ (not all of them because I don’t think you have THAT much time to read them all):
- The fucking Sun Belt. Wow, I was HORRIBLE with the Sun Belt predictions. The only close one was New Mexico State. Tied for 9th was my prediction and that’s where they landed. Other than that? Brutal. Thanks a lot Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. Also, I promise to pick Georgia State last next season after predicting for two seasons in a row that they wouldn’t finish last.
- Georgia Tech. Then again, I am pretty sure almost nobody picked them to win their division. Hell, I’d put money down on hardly anyone picking them 2nd either.
- The American Conference. Not too bad…as long as you don’t count me picking Memphis near the bottom and SMU near the top. Other than that? Greatness.
- Florida Atlantic. Yeah don’t ask.
Another year, another relatively shitty set of predictions. My next post will go over the rest of my predictions and how wrong I probably was. I’ll throw in a blurb about the NFL while I’m at. Why not eh?