Finally the first round of the draft came and went. I was seriously getting sick of the hype leading up to it. Goodell, please put it back in April. Then again, watching the first round made me realize how much I truly miss football and that is a lot.
So how did I do with my predictions? I am no Mel Kiper (I look way better than that guy) or Mike Mayock (who I think is a better analyst than Kiper) but I thought I would have a pretty good handle on how the first round would play out. Well, not so fast bro…here are the results comparing my final mock to the actual results:
|Pick No.||My Choice||Actual Pick||Variance|
|1||Jadeveon Clowney||Jadeveon Clowney||0|
|2||Greg Robinson||Greg Robinson||0|
|3||Blake Bortles||Blake Bortles||0|
|4||Johnny Manziel||Sammy Watkins||1|
|5||Sammy Watkins||Khalil Mack||7|
|6||Jake Matthews||Jake Matthews||0|
|7||Mike Evans||Mike Evans||0|
|8||Teddy Bridgewater||Justin Gilbert||2|
|9||Eric Ebron||Anthony Barr||2|
|10||Justin Gilbert||Eric Ebron||-1|
|11||Anthony Barr||Taylor Lewan||6|
|12||Khalil Mack||Odell Beckham, Jr.||6|
|13||Ha Ha Clinton-Dix||Aaron Donald||1|
|14||Aaron Donald||Kyle Fuller||16|
|15||Darqueze Dennard||Ryan Shazier||7|
|16||Kony Ealy||Zack Martin||3|
|17||Taylor Lewan||C.J. Mosley||7|
|18||Odell Beckham Jr.||Calvin Pryor||*|
|19||Zack Martin||Jawuan James||*|
|20||Derek Carr||Brandin Cooks||6|
|21||Jimmie Ward||Ha Ha Clinton-Dix||-8|
|22||Ryan Shazier||Johnny Manziel||-18|
|23||Marqise Lee||Dee Ford||4|
|24||C.J. Mosley||Darqueze Dennard||-9|
|25||Louis Nix III||Jason Verrett||*|
|26||Brandin Cooks||Marcus Smith||*|
|27||Dee Ford||Deone Bucannon||*|
|28||Morgan Moses||Kelvin Benjamin||*|
|29||David Yankey||Dominique Easley||*|
|30||Kyle Fuller||Jimmie Ward||-9|
|31||Cyrus Kouandjio||Bradley Roby||*|
|32||Jace Amaro||Teddy Bridgewater||-24|
As you can see, a complete shitshow. I had the first three right and five of the first seven and probably would have had six if the Bills hadn’t traded up to get Watkins. After that, nothing. Not even close in some cases. Here’s some quick analysis on the first round:
Best Prediction on my part
Easy. Having Bortles as the top QB, first QB picked, and going #3 to the Jags when many had him being the second or third QB picked and much lower in the draft.
Worst Prediction on my part
Where do I begin? I should have had Mack higher, especially once almost everyone started moving him up in their mocks. I was fooled, yet again, into putting too many QBs too high up in the first round. This time it was Teddy Ballgame falling all the way to 32nd from 8th (but still going to the same team so….yay?).
Best Value pick
The Bengals somehow getting Darqueze Dennard at 24 was an honest shocker. I thought he may go higher but when Justin Gilbert came off the board at 8, I started to wonder where Dennard would fit.
Worst Value picks
Yes picks. As in plural. There were a few misfires in the first round.
- Pittsburgh reached big time for Kyle Fuller, especially when Dennard AND Ha Ha Clinton-Dix were still available. Good player but not worth a #14 pick.
- Miami inexplicably picking Jawuan James. Cyrus Kouandjio is still on the board (and still waiting…) and they pick James? Flat-out bad pick.
- Cleveland trading down and then picking Gilbert instead of Dennard at #8.
This is a tie between the Bills moving up to get Sammy Watkins and the Browns trading up to get Manziel. Buffalo now looks like the most sure team in the draft as they made a big move to get a guy they obviously wanted (especially since if they hadn’t done that, he would have likely gone to Oakland with the next pick). Cleveland trading for a second time to get Manziel kind of makes up for the slight gaffe with the Gilbert pick. They still get the guy that I thought they would get, except not at #4 but at #22. Has to be considered a win. Plus everyone loves them some Gianni Futbol.
I watched mostly NFL Network coverage of the first round with some periodical moves over to ESPN. I can honestly say that the NFL Network, overall, has better coverage. I believe Mike Mayock is a better analyst than Mel Kiper and not as arrogant. Rich Eisen is a much better host, in this format, than Chris Berman who needs to stick to home-run contests and NFL Sunday mornings. One thing I wasn’t big on was the fact that the NFL Network crowded five guys into the main desk. I rarely heard Steve Mariucci and didn’t think much of Michael Irvin’s analysis. I would have put those two elsewhere in the coverage and left Eisen, Mayock, and Marshall Faulk (who did a fantastic job) at the main desk.
Best players available
Three players come to mind:
- Derek Carr – Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Texans open the second round by picking David’s younger brother.
- Marqise Lee – I am surprised he didn’t go before Kelvin Benjamin but he should still be an early second-round pick.
- Kony Ealy – Here’s a guy who seemed to rocket up the draft board and has now fallen back off it. Wouldn’t shock me to see him wait until the end of the second round tonight.
So much draft coverage this weekend along with a shit-ton of slopitch (opening weekend!) means I will be busy. Not a bad thing. I will be doing a grade for all the teams at some point next week.